Topic: 🏏🏏 Mutual betting & MutiBet IN SAME MATCH discussion & active Markets 🏆 - page 3. (Read 2873 times)

So I came up with some math on how to win multibets. I'll analyse Select 3 from 4 option: Win 5x category of Royse's Multibet

Market #1: Who wins the Toss
IND
WI

The probability of winning Market #1 is 1/2 or 50% (Superb)


Market #3: Team with Highest score at 1st Dismissal
IND
WI
Draw

Though we can say that IND has a 55% chance of winning, WI 40% and Draw say 5% based on the knowledge of the game, let's not complicate my math and keep this simple.
Scenario 1: Assuming they all have an equal chance, the probability of winning Market #3 is 1/3 or 33.33% (Good)
Scenario 2: Assuming a draw is highly unlikely and can be ignored, the probability of winning Market #3 is 1/2 or 50% (Superb)


Market #8 and #9: Over 1 total for IND and WI
Under 4.5
Exactly 5
Over 5.5

Same here, for a T20 match scoring Over 5.5 runs in Over 1 would have a better shot at winning but that might not be the case in several cases. If you have seen several matches, We can't ignore 5 as we ignored Draw in Market #3
For the ease, assume all have an equal chance, so the probability of winning Market #8 or 9 is 1/3 or 33.33% (Good)


Coming to Multibets, Assume I choose Markets #1 #3 and #8
All the markets are independent of the other, so the probabilty would be
Scenario 1: 1/2*1/3*1/3 = 1/18 or 5.5%  (damn)
Scenario 2: 1/2*1/2*1/3 = 1/12 or 8.33%

As you can see, the probability of winning has drastically changed with the multibets

If you choose Markets #3 #8 and #9,
Scenario 1: 1/3*1/3*1/3 = 1/27 or 3.7%  (god damn not even 5%)
Scenario 2: 1/2*1/3*1/3 = 1/18 or 5.5%

So if you are planning to win Multibets in the 5x pool, choose Markets #1, #3 and (#8 or #9) for better chances of winning.
Royse might not like this post as a bookie  

PS: This is just a rough calculation   Even with this math understanding, you might fail miserably  

I totally missed you and deadly in the pool LOL
Congratulations again.
Once I hear from deadly then I will send the winning funds to you. Please post an address in the pool topic.

I too wonder why it's hard to win Multibets  I'll do some math tomorrow on the odds of winning Multibets.
I am glad that I won atleast the mutual bet pool 

It was done. And a disapoiting performance from India which means there were no winners and we have this fund to be used for the next pool (roll over).
 

Bad luck akhjob. Again no win in the multiBet event. It really is frustrating. I am interested to give some sats to a winner but seems like I will have to wait more.

Edited.

Checked, Seems okay.

you might want to transfer my winning amount (last game) in new mutual pool (read; not Multi), please?


I read that there might be some chances of rain in today's game so will wait and post my pick later, 30 mins before the match starts.

Good thing that you won something but I really fell bad for akhjob. He was close too in one of his unit. Anyway, better luck next time. It's here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/em9-win-20x-same-match-multibet-2nd-t20i-ind-vs-wi-0812-1330-gmt-5207521


I have processed the payment for both Mutual pool and multibet.

Everyone please let me know in case of any miscalculation.

Cheers,
The next pool will be up later sometimes. Keep an eye on the TG channel for quick update.

Or we suck at it lol

At least i won the "mutual pool "  you take care of all calculation and let me know the remaining balance.

Reminder : * I won mutual bet but Lost multi bet.


Yeah, that's why i left the amount with you.

@JSRAW and @akhjob
Seriously this multibet thing always favors the bookies, I do not know how. I seriously wanted someone to win and it seemed you two were very close but in the earth team like India scored only 4 runs in their first over! It's like you have to lose a selection in Multibet which became obvious. Anyway, I hope someone wins a bet in the next one.

Please pay the dues. I have 0.0005 from JSRAW, please let me know If I should take 0.0002 BTC from there or you will pay from another source. akhjob, please remind me your free bet in the next event (E#M9)

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I will be creating another one in the next half an hour or so. You will get instant update in my TG channel here: https://t.me/royseMultiBet. If you like then you can subscribe. There are not many in this community though, but I hope someday we will find this section is as busy as the football lovers. :-)

Yeah, mutual betting is fun and sometimes it turns out very profitable than the regular sportsbook odds.

Can I bet for the second match right now here or do I need to wait for your announcement for that? I'm excited I found this thread.

I am a bit confused about something, the idea of mutual betting here is like, the more members support a single bet, the less we will get in winnings as it will be split between the winning group based on the value of their bets, right?

Will my EV be higher if I go for these bets rather than going for single bets on websites like Sportsbet? This is more like that bitbrawlers game I placed some bets on.  

But in mutual pool your chances looking good, Windies spanking Indian bowlers all around the ground (10 sixes already) easy 200+ runs for Windies. This is batting wicket so India is in game with condition apply ; if they can exploit Dew situation when windies bowl later.

Already lost 2 of my bets  And you lost one 

The way you are betting on Draw result for T-20 game, i doubt if this cycle going to end anytime soon

But its good for pool because majority might want to go with India.

And end of the day I am sending those losings from you in the mutual betting pool :-D
It seems a good cycle :-D

@Akhjob, I always hated office. Good thing that I do not have one except my bedroom :-)

Sorry to hear that,

Bad luck-good luck / influenced or not. Truth is none of us can beat the bookie in multibet, we are bit rusty there all we can do is keep emptying our wallet for Royse, only relief is we are playing with tiny amounts 

Royse, it's been a bad day for me at Office, So I'll make my bets tomorrow before the closing time. Don't want my bets to be influenced by the bad vibe

Seems like, I will need more study in Football market :-D

By the way Mutual bet event for India vs WI is now live: E#M8: 💰WIN 20x!💰 SAME MATCH MultiBet 🤑 1st T20I IND vs WI 06/12 - 13:30 GMT

Will create the pool later today but as you said this might be a very one sided pool, May be I need to put some money for WI :-P

If you talk about the cricket there are very few matches in near future. We have India Vs West Indies ODI and T20 coming up but 90% of the people will bet on India. On the other hand football season is always on and you can have a bet on daily basis.

Thanks bro  If you had made a bet on NZ, I would have had an increased winning 

Wow many are interested in Soccer  Never watched a full length soccer game, once watched about halftime and then went on to watch a movie. Now I am rethinking to watch a complete game 

Congrats on the win @akhjob, i would have gone with New Zealand to win and i would have not gone for a draw.

It would be interesting to see how soccer mutual bet will go and i am sure i will be joining it if you start.

I have posted my address in the betting thread. Btw, I am in no hurry, it was JSRAW who was asking you to send me the funds since Day 2 of the match  

I'm not a compulsive gambler, so if you are doing both mutual bets and multibets, you might miss me in some   Btw, I prefer Mutual bets to Multibets, with some exceptions.
In case of one sided games, Multibet is nice