My bitcoin speculation for August... Only rise is possible...

d5000

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Finally it's locked in definitively Cheesy

There was a bit "sell the news" action but we still are much higher than yesterday. If the lows of the recent dips (about $2670 USD) are not broken then I expect for tomorrow a bullish day ... although less steep than today.

Most Europeans were sleeping by the time BIP91 locked in, so they will perhaps invest a bit tomorrow when they read the BIP91 news. A new monthly high could be in, but perhaps for the ATH we must still wait 'till Segwit is locked in irreversibly.

iamTom123

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Bitcoin is already on a rising mode this week when it is clear that the feared and much-talked about split has become a remote possibility. This coming August almost all people are expecting to be a great growth month for Bitcoin but we also have to be careful because once euphoria can go down there would always be corrections. The most important thing is that we can be able to experience a more robust, better, fast and cost-efficient Bitcoin. The future for Bitcoin is getting to be brighter and vigorous...thanks to all the people behind the Bitcoin community.

pooya87

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i hate to do this but i told you so! i hope someone at least listened and took advantage of the dips and bought something somewhere between $2000 and $1800
SegWit's BIP91 was locked in with 93.1% support...

is this the exact same picture from OP or what (i forgot to draw the "We are here white circle"!):

d5000

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Quote from: crypteris on July 20, 2017, 08:46:54 AM

Well, yes. I rather agree over price rise, but I suppose it won't be sudden. My prediction: we'll first see a kind of steadiness with slight fluctuations, and after a while, when everything is settled, it will go up.

Market has decided in a different way Wink

The rise today was extremely steep - and that only because one pool switched to BIP91. F2Pool is still missing (and Bitcoin.com which is still using BU), but they are not needed, it seems.

The downtrend channel is already broken, now we go for a new ATH if everything plays out well. Bitcoin Cash should be bullish, because it is clear that it's an altcoin.

I expect another rise this night at ~2-3AM UTC if BIP91 finally is locked in. It looks good for now, but there are still some blocks to go. Then Segwit should be in - although it is possible that 51% of the miners return to an older client, but I consider that unlikely.

crypteris

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Well, yes. I rather agree over price rise, but I suppose it won't be sudden. My prediction: we'll first see a kind of steadiness with slight fluctuations, and after a while, when everything is settled, it will go up.

d5000

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Quote from: Esphere.in on July 13, 2017, 04:00:36 PM

I do like the speculation part about how much the price can go on an upward ride,but what i would like to know is that how much price it can go down,will it go down below $1800 [...]

I think there is a good chance we are currently re-testing the lows after the $3000 high, which were about $2120 at Bitstamp. If this level holds and slowly there is re-building confidence, then I think that will be the low before the "Segwit rally".

However, it's not impossible that uncertainty - nothing is decided yet! - before July 21 lets us see lower lows. So if you are afraid, you may sell if $2100 is broken sustainably (e.g. it not re-bounces inmediatly over the $2120 level), and re-buy around $1850-1900 if there are no particularly bearish news (like some miners reverting their NYA decision and returning to the Non-Segwit client, or Craig Wright buying more than 20% and blocking BIP91 and Segwit).

iram1011

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Quote from: pooya87 on July 11, 2017, 11:28:33 PM

we all know that this dip is because of the fear of August 1st and the possibility of a chain split because of the deadline that BIP148 has set.
while many believe that BIP148 is going to fail, i say although it will fail but it is not a failure. the best result of it was the SegWit2x which currently has 91% of the miners support. whereas BIP141 (SegWit) has 46% support.

now the speculation. Grin

i say we are going to have SegWit activated on August 1st by SegWit2x (which needs only 80% support and now has 91% support) and that will lead to a big price recovery and another bull run.
we saw the same thing about activation of SegWit on litecoin. they delayed the activation as much as possible, also caused a big dip after LTC's big rise and then it was activated with nearly 100% support and price jumped another time.

this following chart is happening all over again. this is the same fear. the fear of a hard fork and a split. the difference is that the picture below was because of BU split and now it is the SegWit split. and both of them are because of drama and had a very small chance of coming to reality.

i will expect $3000 be broken if things go as planned. buy the dips then

but it will probably only last about 4-5 months until the second deadline which will be 6 months after activation of SegWit (in 2018). and we may see another one of these.

now by that time either SegWit has lived up to the promise (and it is good enough time to see) and they give up on the 2MB hard fork or we will see the drama all over again over hard forking to a 2 MB base block size.

If UASF gets activated after Segwit2x (which is most likely the case), then yes there will be a jump in price. But what I believe is it wouldn't be instant. There would definitely be a dip because of rumours and speculations which have scared many investors recently. Actually the fact is half of the bitcoin community runs over speculations and rumours only. They play a large role in determining the Bitcoin price. Also, such major events are welcomed with a dip in cryptocurrencies.

fabiorem

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I think the botton is 1800. Probably in two weeks.

There's no way to reach 1000, it would be too much money going out.

Kemarit

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Quote from: talkbitcoin on July 14, 2017, 04:08:39 AM

Quote from: Tyrantt on July 12, 2017, 05:21:01 PM

Quote from: talkbitcoin on July 12, 2017, 05:25:59 AM

if price can keep up being above $2000 until August 1 or at least until things become clearer about who supports what for real as we get closer to that date, i can see a big rise happening.

Why not even if it falls below? bitcoin went from $1700 to $3000 in a few months so that's not the problem. But tbh I'm hoping for the price to drop as much as it can.

mostly because i don't think the chances of going below $2000 are that high. but i am not denying it may be possible either.
but also i said it because if price falls below $2000 to something like $1600-$1700 the recovery is going to be very hard and it will take a much longer time to first break the previous support which is now a resistance. so the big rise will be delayed in case of a bigger drop.

Dropping below $2000 is very possible as we are currently seeing a big dip in the last couple of days. Currently we are standing at $2200 and we might see it goes down again in the next succeeding days. I hope others would see this drop as time to buy back bitcoin again, otherwise we are going to see below $2000 nearing the Segwit2x activation. So much talk and discussion has been around regarding what's gonna happen after, I remain optimistic that even though we may see a significant drop, bitcoin can recover and the price could rise up to $3000 or more.

talkbitcoin

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Quote from: Tyrantt on July 12, 2017, 05:21:01 PM

Quote from: talkbitcoin on July 12, 2017, 05:25:59 AM

if price can keep up being above $2000 until August 1 or at least until things become clearer about who supports what for real as we get closer to that date, i can see a big rise happening.

Why not even if it falls below? bitcoin went from $1700 to $3000 in a few months so that's not the problem. But tbh I'm hoping for the price to drop as much as it can.

mostly because i don't think the chances of going below $2000 are that high. but i am not denying it may be possible either.
but also i said it because if price falls below $2000 to something like $1600-$1700 the recovery is going to be very hard and it will take a much longer time to first break the previous support which is now a resistance. so the big rise will be delayed in case of a bigger drop.

batang_bitcoin

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Quote from: Pierre 2 on July 12, 2017, 02:17:22 PM

I agree with this post. I really don't understand why people are so nervous about segwit.
It will work as intended, price will stay strong and rise will follow.

FUDs are spread everywhere so I don't understand either why there's a need to panic. But as long as the price is remaining constant and stable at $2,000 why there's a need to panic. Sell if you want profit but stay with some bitcoins on your cold storage. I will personally believe that this is like just what happened before when the price is falling.

Esphere.in

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I do like the speculation part about how much the price can go on an upward ride,but what i would like to know is that how much price it can go down,will it go down below $1800,will there be a panic situation and so on because i do not want to risk my money if there is a possibility that the price would go down drastically from this situation.

d5000

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Quote from: pooya87 on July 13, 2017, 10:40:49 AM

generally speaking, based on the interactions that i have with many people regarding bitcoin, i see majority of people are concerned about all these debates and the internal "war" that is going on. it has slowed the progress drastically.
they are scared when they hear all these acronyms that people passionately use and all the risks they are talking about.

That's something I experienced, too. And there is more: Most users do not have a position in this debate. I have heard people not understanding why Bitcoin Unlimited is not universally accepted because they don't understand the dangers that could emerge - and Segwit or even UASF is already much too difficult for most.

Quote

they just need a glimmer of hope...

Unfortunately, hope is not enough ... because there is real risk, but there are also good chances that everything goes well, at least now in July/August. I think the best advanced users can do is to explain the major points of the coming events in ELI5-manner - above all in non-english languages there are practically no neutral posts available, only some exchanges are doing the job and informing their clients a little bit about the possible chain split scenarios.

harizen

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Nice technical analysis you got there and let's see few days from now, what really will happened.

We all know that bitcoin already experienced lots of major FUD that pulls the price down and then it can recover but this time the thing that will happened on August 1 is completely different on that past event/scenarios/fud that created a panic to everyone especially the average bitcoiner.

Bitcoin price landed several times on a so called correction price range and sometimes this was used a basis for some speculations. Anyways Im with the idea of still holding bitcoin and I want to see the reward of taking the risk here.

pooya87

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Quote from: d5000 on July 13, 2017, 10:31:42 AM

Quote from: DaMut on July 12, 2017, 12:35:49 AM

How about 'buy on rumours sell on news '?

I think with Segwit it's different. That's because many actors that want to invest in Bitcoin are observing the Segwit battle. If, and only if, everything goes well in July/August then Bitcoin has done a big step forward on the road to better scalability, and so they can invest without having to fear a chain split with all the hassle and turbulences associated.

generally speaking, based on the interactions that i have with many people regarding bitcoin, i see majority of people are concerned about all these debates and the internal "war" that is going on. it has slowed the progress drastically.
they are scared when they hear all these acronyms that people passionately use and all the risks they are talking about.
and that is a lot of money (in total) that we are talking about! and it is waiting to come in... they just need a glimmer of hope...

d5000

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Quote from: DaMut on July 12, 2017, 12:35:49 AM

How about 'buy on rumours sell on news '?

I think with Segwit it's different. That's because many actors that want to invest in Bitcoin are observing the Segwit battle. If, and only if, everything goes well in July/August then Bitcoin has done a big step forward on the road to better scalability, and so they can invest without having to fear a chain split with all the hassle and turbulences associated.

As the Segwit2x agreement can literally fail the last day (if some big pool like Bitmain reverts to the old code), "rumours" aren't worth much. Even when BIP91 is locked in, a 51% miner cartel could still go back to the old client and BIP91 would be worthless. So only when the 95% for Segwit are "in" definitively, then investors can sleep quietly.

So overall I agree with the OP - if Segwit comes, August should be bullish. In late September/October I expect the next crash Wink

pooya87

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Quote from: buwaytress on July 12, 2017, 08:05:56 AM

I somewhat agree that "we are here again", except that I still think "we are on the way here, just not quite yet". Once BTC drops below $2,000, then I'll firmly believe we are "there". Trade volume is still thin, I think a lot of traders were caught out this week and will not be ready to re-enter until they can see the outcome post Aug.

Neverthelses, whatever negative outcome that might happen post August seems to be slowly pricing in already and I fully expect only a matter of weeks to readjust to pre-Aug price.

yeah, well i mostly believe that round numbers such as the $2000 have always been a big psychological barriers. people always have these numbers as a price to sell above while it is not yet reached and they also have it as a target to buy under when price is above it and has a chance of dropping. and that usually makes a bigger resistance than normal.

Tyrantt

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Quote from: talkbitcoin on July 12, 2017, 05:25:59 AM

if price can keep up being above $2000 until August 1 or at least until things become clearer about who supports what for real as we get closer to that date, i can see a big rise happening.

Why not even if it falls below? bitcoin went from $1700 to $3000 in a few months so that's not the problem. But tbh I'm hoping for the price to drop as much as it can.

My speculation? There's probably going to be a dump at the end of july and if I were holding some bigger amount, I can surely say that I'd be selling unleast 40-50% of my bitcoins before segwit. So the price might fall for a couple of hundreds of dollars but in the next week or two will start going up significantly and if it does, that's going to cause a massive buying of bitcoins.

Pierre 2

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I agree with this post. I really don't understand why people are so nervous about segwit.
It will work as intended, price will stay strong and rise will follow.

Sweetbtc

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Quote from: buwaytress on July 12, 2017, 08:05:56 AM

I somewhat agree that "we are here again", except that I still think "we are on the way here, just not quite yet". Once BTC drops below $2,000, then I'll firmly believe we are "there". Trade volume is still thin, I think a lot of traders were caught out this week and will not be ready to re-enter until they can see the outcome post Aug.

Neverthelses, whatever negative outcome that might happen post August seems to be slowly pricing in already and I fully expect only a matter of weeks to readjust to pre-Aug price.

u r 100% right but what to do
it happens even for bitcoins but I believe the small chain will join the big chain later
so by end of Aug there will be again only one chain .let us hope for good things to happen

Topic: My bitcoin speculation for August... Only rise is possible... (Read 1720 times)