Topic: My cloud mining experiment - page 3. (Read 10686 times)

Traditionally GHS is way above what it "should" be, so chances are that just holding the contracts and selling at maturity will be positive. However, their prices for the contracts have held very steady since they were introduced. You can sell those contracts as easily as you buy them, and so long as you set a price when you sell and don't do an immediate transaction, you really could get out of a contract at a very minimal loss. As you said, CEX.IO's best trait is flexibility, and these contracts are the same.

Those future bets (FHM/FHA) sound risky but, to each his own.
I'd like to see some of the features they talked about, namely scrypt mining and commodity exchange as that will improve CEX.IOs best trait, flexibility.

yes so marking it up with a price at this time, is just another pre-order scam.
I've sworn never to take on another pre-order, and that includes socks from sainsbury's, no matter how small the price, i'm not sending a single penny to anyone for a pre-order purchase.

Thanks! I found it


Well, 0.004 per Gh/s ain't that bad. Unfortunately at the end of May the difficulty will be much higher..

hahahahahahaha

 PRE-ORDER cloud GH/s

haven't we been butt-fucked enough?

FHM/BTC tab. It is in the row that starts with GHS/BTC.

It will convert to GHS and begin hashing on May 25.

FHM = Future Hashes May.
On cex.io, there is a trading pair named "FHM/BTC". FHM is basically GHashes that start mining in may, and FHA in April.
But you also have to take into account the difficulty will still go up.

What do you mean with the FHM contract? I heard someone else that you can buy 1 Gh/s starting next month for 0.004. He pointed towards Cex.io, but I can't find it anywhere.

Good to read your analysis. Thanks for posting this.. I'd just like to point out though that we know (kind of) what GHS/BTC value in 2 months will be. The FHM contract is selling around 0.004 right now, which means if you think GHS will be selling at 0.010 in two months, you should be heavily investing in FHM for a better return on your investment. Consider that you could take a 1 BTC today, buy ~250 FHM, and sell it in two months for 2.5 BTC. By far that's a better return than mining. Conversely, if GHS is to be at or around 0.004 at the end of May when these contracts mature your returns would be closer to 0.906016 on CEX. Still better than PBMining! I think this is more realistic of an estimate though.

Daily update. I have changed some things. I have gotten rid of Nimbus Mining in the spreadsheet. Their service is great but it's too pricey and it will never ROI. It does not make sense to keep tracking it. I will point my 1GHS from Nimbus Mining to GHASH.IO so that I can collect that tiny mining profit into my CEX.IO account.

I have also gotten rid of BTC/USD. It fluctuates too much and it does not make sense to keep tracking it. Let's focus on the important stuff.

I am now monitoring my GHS on CEX and on PBMINING. I have a total of 67 GHS. I am also doing projections using the daily mining profit estimate by bitcoinwisdom.com.

Enjoy!

I wouldn't go so far to say it's entirely 'cheap' at PBMining, but it is *coughs* the same price-for-price as a KnC Neptune if you were to buy it today.

ouch.  
If I had the money to buy a rig today, my money would be on spondoolies-tech.

But of course that would raise the price . . . you're getting it cheap because you are locked in. 

If only PBMining could enable hash transfer among customers. This would give an opportunity to sell hash and get out when one wants to. Along with the current better pricing  from PBMining, It will make them the winner,  hands-down ,  no more debate.

Raskul, you are right, it really depends on how you want to play with it. One positive thing about PBMining is that you buy hash power and you then just forget about it and receive your weekly payments. With CEX, you are always under the pressure of selling your hash power if the GHS price goes down too much 

it does depend on how you want to play it.. with CEX there is that 'getout' always available, which is why it is a desirable option for many.

At the end of the day, I think it boils down to personal preference. I didn't do such in-depth analysis before I decided where to buy cloudhashpower (and thanks to the OP for doing this comparison).

So I did decide, eventually - and it took me a good month of contemplation to take the hashpower and be done with it. Funnily enough, I also signed up to the scrypt.cc cloudhashing, which works in a similar way to CEX (but for scrypt) - and I soon realised it was not worth buying hashpower in there. I have 4.5KH on scrypt.cc that i've had there (seems like forever) and I just plough back the few thousand satoshi that earns me per day, back into more KH - in some hope that eventually it will build enough to see some worthy payouts.

So, personal preference, if you want that getout option, go for CEX, if you are sure you just want the hashpower - PBMining.
Gladly, instead of my meagre 180GH miner at home, I now also have 150GH in cloud, so weekly earnings are at the very least; keeping up with difficulty (somewhat - on a meagre scale) and it was this ultimate reason which swayed me; I just wanted to keep up with rising difficulty.

I have another BFL60 arriving tomorrow, and i'm getting into mining multipool SHA256 coins at home. I seem to be ahead of the market with that for now and it's mining me more than I would be mining in BTC - but that's a whole other comparison altogether, and not for me, i just don't have the time!

Your analysis appears to be highly dependent on your assumptions about the resale price you will get on CEX. If the price drop is higher, you may or may not  get back your initial investment from your resale price and mining profit.

It changes every 11/12 days but it's very difficult to predict how much it changes, because this is caused by the increase of the hashing power on the network. I usually check bitcoinwisdom.com, which is pretty reliable and interesting. For example, the next difficulty increase will happen in 3.2 days and it should be a 21% jump (pretty bad for us).

Ah yeah, sorry.

How often does the difficulty increases? And by how much on average? I think it's about +20% doesn't it?  Unfortunately I fail at math, otherwise I could have made a more realistic ROI calculation.

Thanks anyway!

Be careful, I said that I was not taking difficulty increase into consideration in my analysis, mainly because I was interested in seeing how much impact the sale of GHS may have.

Hm, thanks for your reply. I didn't took that "sell option" under consideration.  And, as PBmining is relatively young, it might still turn out to be a ponzi.

According to your calculation, you will earn 0.60 BTC for 60 Days of mining at PBminining at 0.7 BTC, so it takes only 2 and half month to ROI.. That's not bad either.

I think it's a hard decision. Thank you anyway very much for your experiment and explanation & calculation!