What happens when all bitcoin are mined and demand peaks? Will the price still go up? Always wondered about this scenario.
Aren't we getting so much beyond the topic of this thread?
Sure we can outline reasons why normies (and even not normies) are going to end up losing confidence in bitcoin's long term sustainability, and surely there are quite a few responses to this.. and of course, the responses are somewhat speculative, too.
I have frequently found that attempts to focus on base case scenarios tend to be way better then getting caught upon thousands of "what ifs?" It seems far from prudent to be holding off on investing into bitcoin because we are worried about one "what if?" or another "what if?" that are likely fringe scenarios at best....
So the possibility that a lot of weird ass negative things could end up happening to bitcoin should contributed to how much to invest into bitcoin rather than negating investing into bitcoin.
Maybe we can use Armaggaedon as an example? If you proclaim that there are 10% odds that armaggaedon could happen in the next 10 years, then you better not be putting more than 10% preparations into that... You are crazy if you put 20%, 50% or even 80% preparations into a scenario that you believe to have 10% odds
Of course, people are not necessarily going to agree on the odds, either. Maybe I assign 1% odds and you assign 20% odds? and so our investment should be attempted to tailor to our own views rather than the views of someone else.
All the bitcoins will be mined by around 2140, so your problem of running out of mined bitcoins does not really seem very urgent, and there are also theories regarding how to deal with it, but some of those theories are not even going to be very applicable until getting closer to seeing how the facts (and the whole system evolves in the next 50 years or more).. We are still a bit less than 14 years into this bitcoin system going live, so a lot of aspects are still developing, even though bitcoin continues to largely be built upon its foundations, but there have been on the top developments, such as lightning network and other aspects in which incentives can be affected, and we cannot try to resolve incentives nearly 120 years down the road with any degree of specificity even though there are possibilities that fee markets can continue to evolve in which the mostly existing bitcoin system can keep going without any major changes, even if mining rewards are completely dependent on fees rather than mining rewards as they have existed so far and are gradually reducing every 4 years to get us to the point that we will be in 120years from now..
What I find amazing and crazy is all the companies like celsius and 3arrows who made bets as if they were listening to that keiser chap. Or even Saylor.
They were going beyond Keiser and Saylor and some of the stuff they were doing were pure scams.. so you seem to be making pretty bad comparisons if we were to want to actually attempt to get into details about what was going on.
The losses they have made is spectacular.
Imagine if you had listened to Saylor and put a million in at 40 or 60k - right now you would not be impressed or happy.
Saylor is doing o.k. You better try to tailor to your own approach rather than blanketly listening to someone who has different circumstances than you.
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You are not Michael Saylor are you?
Missing
I guess you are one of those programmer types who is really into bitcoin. Thats fair enough.
I am not very technically sophisticated, so I still have some difficulties with some of the technical aspects.. including programing.. though I do like to see some of the technical discussions, but it usually does not take very long before they go over my head.
I lost a lot with bitcoin from early years to hacking, and all sorts.
I lost coins to hacks and other ways too, including some issues with exchanges, and it seems that the longer that we are into bitcoin, then we are likely to have had come across some of these kinds of situations.. especially if we end up wanting to get involved in some of the bitcoin ecosystem beyond merely stashing coins into cold storage.. and even some guys lose coins in cold storage because they might make systems that are too complicated for their own recovery. Being your own bank is not always an easy road forward.
Another common mistake is getting distracted into shitcoins, and I tend to be pretty vocal in terms of trying to avoid that, so in that regard, I mostly try to stay away from the shitcoin discussions - even though it seems inevitable that many of us will get exposed to that nonsense merely be being in the space. .and there is also a lot of convoluted mixing up of bitcoin and shitcoins because many shitcoins do that on purpose to pump their coins, but also there are likely powers that be (institutions and governments and even those stupid-ass venture capitalists who are pumping and dumping onto retail) who also engage in such purposeful convolution of the bitcoin topic.
I am no longer that into it as I was before - its been ten years. Gox was the main exchange once and I thought the eastern european Bistamp would hack me not the Japanese. It turns out the Japanese was Mr Karpeles who eats bitcoin. Lost my life savings.
Karpeles was probably not an evil person, but he did end up biting off a lot more than he could chew.. so it was a bit of a mess and still continues to linger.. like a bit of a black shadow, but it is also still a decently large part of bitcoin's history to attempt to learn from those kinds of matters... even though some folks learn in more personal ways than others.
I do think btc promotes hoarding, and what would be perfect is something that can not be stolen, or seen by the government.
I don't know how you can get anything much more perfect than bitcoin. I mean it is what it is, and it is amazing if you really try to understand what it aimed to do and what it is doing, even after nearly 14 years in existence.
There is still nothing that even comes close to bitcoin in terms of an ability to decentrally hold value and to pretty much be able to send it anywhere in the world without anyone being able to do shit about it. Sure, there are technical aspects that are pretty complicated, and there are even user-interface matters that continue to be complicated, even after nearly 14 years of existence...
I like to try to appreciate matters for what they are rather than what I wished them to be, so if we look at bitcoin and we attempt to understand it and to work with it for what it is, then what are we going to do? buy some or refrain from buying any? I think that everyone should at least buy a bit.. and be whimpy 1% of your investment portfolio.. and forget about it, even though DCAing would be better, but you can choose your amount. $100 per week or $10 per week or some other amount.. and then in the beginning maybe holding what you have on exchanges is acceptable, but yeah it can be kind of risky too if something like Celsius, Voyager or one of the others goes belly up.. then you are fucked... or at least quite likely to be fucked... and even some bitcoiners got caught up in the Tera/Luna/Do Kwan bullshit too.. because they thought that bitcoin's built in pumpamentals was not enough.. hahahahhaha.. they wanted to earn yield.. fuck that.. they wanted 4%, 8%.. 12%.. 20%?.. .. Yeah, the lower yield levels seem more possible, but if you invested in Voyager and got 4%, then Voyager claimed that they were being prudent with your money, and they sent 58% of all assets in their possession to 3AC without getting any collateral from 3AC, which amounted to about $640million dllars on a personl loan to 3AC because Voyager wanted to earn 20% while they were paying their clients 4%.. scammy as fuck and some of those guys should be in jail even though they are lawyered up to the brim.
So, yeah we should attempt to realize that it is better to attempt to hold our own keys (at least the majority of our own keys), and realize that any third party may well be gambling with your funds if you leave your funds with them.
You better be careful if you presume bitcoin to be broken merely because there were rich ass fucktwats gambling with it and gambling with client's money, and in the end, both innocent and guilty folks got purged from their coins, and they were even double accounting for quite a few of coins that they did not even have. People who hold their own keys suffered BTC price depreciation based on the gambling of others, but what's going to happen from here? Bitcoin could go up or it could go down, but still seems like a good investment to me.. even if it might go down some more for a period of time.. but it might not as well. You gotta figure out your allocation, and it seems that having some allocation is better than having none.. but the level of your allocation and the whether of your getting involved remains your choice.
I also feel the biggest reason the Fed allow btc to continue is due to the fact they can see every transaction on the ledger.
It's like a Trojan horse no? Can they stop you from sending a million to Iran or to North Korea? I am not advocating the breaking of any laws.. I am just asking a question. What if you use lightning network? What if you have a lot of small transactions are they going to be able to keep track of all of your purchases like credit cards? And, really do you think that the Fed has much of a choice in terms of game theory? What if they "did not allow" bitcoin to continue to exist? What do you think would happen?
Yes, the "Fed" might play that "you no longer exist" card, but I doubt that it would go very well for them, and that is why they have to engage in more passive-aggressive divide and conquer behaviors... .. so does that mean you buy some or you stay out of it? That's your choice.
If every crypto was without public ledger - highly likely they would all have been banned.
You sound mixed up here.
The only reason any other crypto exists, beyond bitcoin is because bitcoin is a difficult nut to crack. Bitcoin is the only threat to the status quo or the powers that be, and not all the powers that be believe bitcoin is a threat, and some of the powers that be believe that it would be better to have bitcoin... so it is not an open and closed case, for sure.
It's basically auto compliance reported by the ledger. I no longer feel bitcoin or crypto is perfect in that regard.
Fuck crypto.. who gives any shits about that?
Focus on bitcoin..
By the way, regarding your point about bitcoin's design choice to be public, there is a lot of rationale that bitcoin gains a quite a bit of its credibility because everyone (or anyone) has the ability to verify what the fuck is going and to verify every single satoshi that exists. They can do such verification with about $200 in hardware. Pretty powerful, don't you think?
You might want to get some, in case it catches on.. hahahahahahaha