Topic: My first experience of Bitcoin halving, I'm excited. - page 4. (Read 796 times)

Halving is very near and we cannot know if the price up or still remain or no changes. Many crypto user are expecting once the bitcoin have halving they see price will rise. The price for the bitcoin in your prediction is very high and very far from the reality. Just look the price now it is 6800 dollars and your think price will go more than hundred dollars in just 1 month are you serioud of that?

What you feel is only hype and for me it is very risky if you will just rely it on making decisions. For me it will really not happen because we are still facing crisis and many people are panicking and withdrawing their investments. Most of people who frequently lose in the market is because of the hype, they keep speculating and predicting that the price may reach $20,000 above and more. We should be aware on what is happening in the reality for us to have expectations that are really feasible.

That kind of hope can destroy your mentality, it seems that you are now having quick rick mentality that can be considered as disease where it can lead you to major losses. For those who will base their decisions just because of halving, be careful and manage your risks very well if you do not want to lose huge amount of capital. It is better if we will decide with some technicals.

We are very near to halving and the price are not yet steady as it increase and decrease at the same time. We are currently at $6,887 so maybe in the coming halving we cannot reach the 9k$ per bitcoin.

There is a big possibility that this incoming halving will be very different to the past halving that it's price increases so much. There is also a pandemic right now where most of the countries are imposing lockdown in their area so the demand can't easily skyrocket before the halving will come. Let's just hope that it can reach to 8-9k$ price when the halving happen.

Don't be too hopeful about the price of Bitcoin. If you were to compare the price of Bitcoin in the last couple of years, It is kind of absurd to think that we would reach $380,000 - $400,000 in just this halving, especially that we are in a crisis. You didn't mention why the price in the halving flew in the first place. The reason for the 2017 moon was because of the ICO and Bitconnect blew to the whole world, not to mention the early hard fork that people talked about a lot. Investors left and right coming even though they didn't know that cryptocurrency is full of scammers which the investors isn't realizing yet until the first month of 2018. You agree or disagree, that's the main reason that I know why we reached $20,000. There's just too much hype and good news in 2017.

Now, where's our hype? only corona virus and stock market crash. No new investors coming in and the adoption rate aren't spiking but steadily growing. $380,000 - $400,000 ain't gonna happen anytime soon. Perhaps $10,000 - $20,000.

I don't think that was excited to see even this is my first time. The market isn't perfectly in good shape and we are in the wrong timing because of the pandemic. We shouldn't have to expect a lot this coming halving. The crypto market is still in the struggle and I can't see a huge price increase will occur because of the halving but it probably we might able to see the market keeping at low as what it has today.

I agree here, we shouldn't expect that much this halving. The price will increase but it will be different from the previous halvings that happened. I think will be going back to a 5-digit price mark and might have a 200% to 300% price increase. I think he will not be depressed since he's been here for a long time, I think so I am sure he experienced those big dumps, he's fine.

Most people just predict it based on halving history. But in my opinion, it cannot be predicted as the upcoming halving might not the same as the previous one. At least, one of the factors is about the Corona pandemic, it still continues and seems to give big impacts on halving. I am worried that many people will be disappointed with the price move this year. As we are in the economic and health crises, the chance of a high increase in Bitcoin price is likely hard to happen.

Now, we know that only 2,625,000 BTCtc will remain after May, 2020 bitcoin halving. This amount is not good enough to reduce supply like in 2012 when it reduced from 21,000,000 BTCtc to 10,500,000 BTCtc. So, the halving will not have and significant effect directly this time at all. But, it can have indirect effect through whales manipulations and other investors anticipation, they can all buy bitcoin just because they know people will want to buy during halving time and this will increase the price but if they do not buy, the price will not increase.

So, nobody knows if the price of bitcoin will increase for now because it solely depends on people buying bitcoin now not the halving effect like in 2012.

The OP should not expect too much for this upcoming halving. Should be realistic here in numbers. 380-400k is too much to think about it. Start thinking maybe 10-15k. If it is his first experience and expecting so much, he will be disappointed. I hope he will not get depressed for what is coming. This is the reason why many newbies are having negative impression with bitcoin when their expectations are not met.

If this is why you're here you're going to be disappointed.

When I read posts like this I start to feel scared for Bitcoin. If the community is really built of people who wait for the halving "because 400 thousand!" "dude I'm gonna buy a car and a house next year because this bitcoin man you put 100 dollars and get 10 thousand after a year!" bitcoin is doomed. At least in the short term.

I don't agree with the post above me that it's over for Bitcoin because it's not, but if it is it's because of greedy people who dream of how many dollars they will get for their coins in a year.

WRONG, WRONG, WRONG...

The days of the BitCoin and Economic bubble are OVER...   The halving is already well known and already priced into the market.  BitCoins reaction to its first Economic Crisis was to CRASH in price.

Welcome to the NEW REALITY.  ( No you will not get rich, but you might get very poor  )

Hard Facts

Okay thank you. So it's something that has do with, mining, and miners that has less tools may not participate in the Halving. I'm not understanding how it happens. Why is it on that day, or is it that the blocks will be opened on that day for miners to mine until it gets to the limit as usual? The miners are the big winners I guess, during this period.

It's good that you have positive attitude but don't get to excited. I know that many people have big expectations from halving but some might get disappointed at the end. Price might go up but I don't think that will be long, continuous growth, it's more likely that we'll have price rise in a short breath. Also, there is no guarantee that price will rise at all.

As the saying goes, "past history is not an indicative of future results". I was not here during the last halving of 2016, but I witnessed the massive growth that occurred in 2017. Of course, I'm still hoping that we can see another bubble after the halving but it might take years and the four year cycle might not be applicable. We all just have to sit back and see where the price will go and it's better not to set a high expectations so that we will not get disappointed at the end.

I was already on this forum when the previous halving has happened, but I didn't see it as something so important.
Back then I was focused more on altcoins and some of them had halvings which didn't meet my expectations.

I don't want to be the party popper but I think that you should not be too excited / don't get too many expectations of it. The market may not agree with you, at least not in the way you may expect.

There is no need speculating the price of bitcoin after the halving because there is a zero chance of being correct, you can make attempts to compare halvings in the past to arrive at a price, but there is no way to be sure. Since the halving is about four-five weeks from now, it's better to wait till it happens than predicting.
No, there is no venue for the bitcoin halving.

You know it easy to assume when we are thinking straight that things will happen naturally but the case for this year's halving is quite doubtful for me since we have a huge rock in front of us, pandemic, so we can barely tell if we are getting a pump with the price or not. For the past halvings we are able to see a 10000% price increase however the price today isn't the price last 4 years ago, a lot has happened and I think we are at the current peak, or at least near the peak of the lowest price right now. Actually the ATH is very impossible to reach this year even after halving imo.

First, I will explain what Bitcoin halving is about. Bitcoin halving happen occasionally, as many people believe today, that the pandemic, silenced the trend of Bitcoin halving. It is an event that occurs every 4 years, which shows the creation of new bitcoins. Just like we see Bitcoin as a (digital gold) it has a finite supply, once 21 million coins are generated the network will stop producing more.

Second, I will analyze Bitcoin halving according to the previous events years before. (%)

First halving
November 2012 they was an additional 13,000% increase, Bitcoin was at the bottom of $2.01 and it spiked to $270.94/BTC

Second halving
July 2016 they was an increase of 12,000%. Bitcoin price was $164.01 and it spiked to $20,004 to the top. ( During the period of the halving, just like in the space of 4 years or within).

Third Halving
May 2020
If Bitcoin happen to do another 12,000% - 13,000% we would see $380,000 - $400,000 per BTC..

Unlike the previous patterns, No guarantee Bitcoin will ever do another 12,000%. Much like the % will be a lot smaller, but with Bitcoin hope is certain and mathematics does not like.

After the Halving we only need 200million per month to keep $7000 level. If 400m a month then we are heading to the moon. For example, (30d×24h×6blocks×12.5btc×$7000 assuming all trading is zero sum game)

Bitcoin is ponzi-ish
But for Bitcoin to have value it requires more people to recognize it and follow it. For Gold to maintain liquid value it requires a consistent flow in relation to currency. That will not make Gold a Ponzi scheme. 400 million a month into BTC is a drop in the bucket (according to a tweet I saw during my research).

My question is what price do you predict Bitcoin to be after this Halving and also I would like to get more details as regard to the Halving event. Does it have a venue?