Topic: My forecast of bitcoin (Read 2970 times)

New forecast for 7 days: 700-400 bitstamp price.  Wont go above 700, won't fall too much either

This week's trade: neutral

i am right on. like always.  and bullys are talking about trifectas lol

Boring?  It continues to keep me entertained.

Agreed. I think I overestimated the impact of media coverage. Right now the media is talking about bitcoin every day, people may see it as just another one of the media's talking points, I honestly think most smart people in the USA have heard of Bitcoin now, the problem is they hear it through the media and never do their own research which means they never truly understand what Bitcoin is all about.

There will be another rise but it could be years from now. I think only a major worldwide crisis can trigger it. The bull run will be epic, though - there will literally be blood as the powers that be rush to get in. Thousand-dollar gains in a single day. Most people think Bitcoin is too complicated for the layman to understand, but I actually believe the opposite. It is such a simple idea it will hit everybody like a sack of bricks. People will feel retarded for not paying attention to what's been in front of them all along.

This thread is so epic I don't even.

Malleability pun, pure form capitulation, prescience, and an insanely insightful newbie first post.

Trifectas everywhere just felt so inadequate.

I have lurked for a long time, but I made an account just to tell you something.You are my new buy indicator.  You must be new to bitcoin, first bull run for you?  After the great booms, bitcoin has a tendency to have long, boring, bear runs that take your feelings to low after low after low until you feel like giving up or selling out.  Every time this has happened and many people sell out after getting discouraged.  Just after it looks hopeless bitcoin always comes back even stronger.  Funny enough this has a lot of people who sold out earlier from being beaten with bitcoin blues running to exchanges. 

Whatever you choose, I recommend keeping at least 1 btc .

I think the next rush won't occur before the financial crisis takes its next round into the death spiral.

Only when an increasing amount of relatively oridinary people (re-)start thinking about their central bank FIAT money or think about how much inflation steals from their 0.x% "savings" accounts - then I can imagine the userbase getting another kick, as they look for alternatives.

I can't really imagine BTC being valued far beyond 1000$ unless a major crisis catapults it over this and similar psychological barriers (last time it failed when for a brief minutes 1BTC exceeded the price for 1oz of gold).
Other than that, I absolutely trust it that manipulators (governments, central banks) will ensure the ride will be extremely volatile and rough.
After all, BTC is open to everyone - even the most unfriendly and unwanted with the worst of intentions.

I also see the potential for it heading into the ground or a singularity event (something catastrophic), at least I'm mentally prepared for it.
Would be highly interesting (in a morbid way) to see just how much more criminal energy hackers would put into their efforts, if BTC was valued at like 10000$ or even more.
BTC holders would have to be batshit paranoid for a good reason then. Not sure everyone could handle that permanent stress, which should not be underestimated.

Ethereum will create a decentralized exchange for Bitcoin.

More likely going to cash out again, and then come back at 20k and bitch about manipulation.

MattheCat makes a good point that I think is important, bitcoin has become boring.  The news is bad - Gox gone - or silly - "We've found Satoshi!" and it does not matter.  My only hope is that behind the scenes things are happening such as the second market exchange that will make bitcoin legit at least in the USA.

Are you finally going to HODL?

you have a prediction of new lows for the price of bitcoin, but in the same post you estimate that the next rush will be in the 20-50k range.   So in your best approximation, you would guess that over the next few years the price of 1 btc will be between $1-$50,000.   

There is almost no chance of you being wrong.  Your range is the widest estimate that I have seen so far

Good luck with that.  Come back and let us know how that goes for you.

Funny you should say that. In the past few days I have grown completely bored of Bitcoin. Closed a short yesterday evening, which I was pretty damn sure would have come good had I given it time (turns out I could have turned around $1000 with it)......but I have just stopped caring. I closed the short, and moved funds off the exchange. I am considering moving all funds of all exchanges for good. I am fed up with Bitcoin and its hooky exchanges and the manipulated tape painting trading. MtGox today, who the fuck knows who else tomorrow. BTC-e and Bitfinex were robbed and are running fractional reserve Bitcoin operations just now as far as I am concerned. I have had Bitcoins transactions in and out of both these exchanges that registered before even a single confirmation on the blockchain. If they were doing the same thing as Gox was in order to speed process up and keep customers happy, then they have also most likely been robbed by the same hackers who robbed Gox blind. Both these exchanges flash crashed to $100, yet there were a lot of people whose buy-ins never got triggered. Perhaps because it was for the most part, not real BTC that were sold off but because someone hacked the exchange 'shadow Bitcoin' trading engines (that the exchanges use for massaging price and stealing off traders), which again would testify to how corrupt the Bitcoin exchanges are.

Dodgy as fuck. All of it.

Perhaps it is just me, perhaps I have just spent too long staring at charts that my mind has become numb with Bitcoin, but for anyone entering this market long now, someone panic bought around 20K of Bitcoin on Monday, for reasons that will remain unknown, although this did coincide with Eastern European office hours during the one day Ukraine economic crisis (before EU pledged 15 billion financial aid). If this person now needs to get back into fiat for whatever reason, then we can expect an excruciating market from here, as the tape painting exchange bots try to entice speculators in with bullshit buying pressure, whilst the panic buy-in whale slowly drops 1K-2K Bitcoin as and when enough support builds to absorb his BTC bombs.

The exchange tape painting will make life excruciating for shorters. The potential/probable continuation of flash 1K-2K sell offs will make life excruciating for holders. And then lets not get started on the massive volumes of stolen BTC which the thieves will be working around the clock on, trying to find safe ways of cashing them out and into fully spendable USD/EUR etc.

Right now, Bitcoin reeks of long term stagnation.

It has hit the ceiling again.  Shit hit the fan not too long ago.. now the shit (or bitcoins) has hit the ceiling and will fall back down to the ground

estimated new low: ~400 - 300 bitstamp price...

unlikely to fall below 300 or previous 266 high.

Good time to short again imo!

Seems like a pretty wild and broad prediction...
based on??? 

Bitcoin will see another price spike once many of the current 'burnt' speculators leave and a new batch of noobs (oblivious to the pitfalls of BTC trading) arrive and start their buying spree, believing their onto a goldmine. Many of these too will get burned and the cycle will start over.

I am not sure anyone really appreciates you using the word malleable at a time like this.

cool let it crash, but at least lets get a rise to 800-900 first then we can talk buying coins on the CHEAP 

We have a long way to go, but it is going to take quite a few rushes to get from where we are now to the 20k-50k range.   I think we need a lot of baby steps along the way, as we have never seen even 2k yet.