Topic: My last prediction of the year! This is a good one, I promise! - page 2. (Read 2831 times)

Good points!

So, if past is any indication, it won't affect the OVERNIGHT price to double. I gets it. However, the salient point of the event affecting the price, over a longer period of time.

I am not saying that miners will abandon their mining operation and start buying bitcoins instead due to the halving event. Where did I say that in my original post?

We need to look at the miners behaviour just before and after the last halving, November 2012,
We need to look at the bitcoin price around then,
How would the big mining outfits do once the halving occurs? Their profits will be halved. do they double their miners?

I am shocked that nobody so far chimed in said, "let's just get to the 2014 first, let alone 2015, geesh!!!!"

Indeed. Go and inspect the charts.

It's common sense this is true because otherwise everyone with half a brain could double his money in a few minutes. Markets are stupid but arbitrage gabs usually close quite quickly over time.

This makes no sense to me. I'm trying to follow your logic. I think you are saying that people will stop mining bitcoins and buy them outright due to the halving, thereby causing the demand to increase, and the price to go up. Is this your reasoning? Mining for profit is already out of reach for most bitcoiners, and has been for some time. I don't think the halving will have any significant impact on price.

And so thought they on November 28th 2012 that they would wake up the next morning to a price increase.....nothing happened. The market will have this priced in long before the action.

I was responding to another thread somewhere and a thought entered my fertile mind:

next halving of bitcoin will take place by end of 2015.

If you don't already know what "halving" means, it means that around every 10 minutes, a block of bitcoins will be rewarded to a miner and the reward will be halved from current 25 to 12.5 bitcoins.

The exact date and time of the next halving is not quite certain, it just depends upon how many blocks will have been mined then. As we all know, the hashrate has been greatly accelerating and this acceleration is causing the date and time of halving to be earlier and earlier than expected.

This event, "halving of bitcoin reward for mining", will most likely result in overnight spike in, whatelse, bitcoin price. It should at least double:

so, if the prevailing bitcoin price on, say, October 15, 2015 is $50,000 (which admittedly is a conservative amount) and if the halving takes place at midnight on October 15, 2015, then the next morning, October 16, 2015, we will see an overnight doubling to $100,000.

This is a highly simplified version of what can happen in 2015. Many people will drive up the bitcoin price IN ANTICIPATION prior to the event and there will be many opportunities for panic buying and panic selling as well, as new entrants try to grab the dwindling supply of the new coins.

These are tumultuous times.