My Most Insane Prediction of Bitcoin & Ethereum - page 2.

adaseb

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Quote from: Idrisu on June 13, 2018, 11:50:11 AM

I think this predictions has play out to some extent and I have tried to remain positive about the upwards movement of price of bitcoin but I think the reality is quite different. The bearish market and conditions has dominated the market since the beginning of the year and I think bitcoin may fall from were it started from in July last year.

Yes it looks like some points of his did play out.

However if Bitcoin crashes badly I don't think ETH will hold its value either or replace the #1 spot for market cap.

The fact of $100,000 or $1,000,000 per BTC was very far fetched at least in the next decade.

You really can't predict the top, so just sell a little every few weeks or months until you liquidate your position.

Because you will almost always sell too early or sell too late. Hence do it in parts.

fabiorem

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Quote from: enhu on June 13, 2018, 11:18:35 AM

Limiting will also make those people back away from investing because most the reason why they get into crypto is because of profit too.

Not if the limit is only downwards.

Idrisu

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I think this predictions has play out to some extent and I have tried to remain positive about the upwards movement of price of bitcoin but I think the reality is quite different. The bearish market and conditions has dominated the market since the beginning of the year and I think bitcoin may fall from were it started from in July last year.

Dorkie

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Quote from: BitcoinNewbie15 on June 13, 2018, 11:01:41 AM

Its obvious that regulation will increase adoption. I wouldn't really call that one a prediction. Bitcoin goes through these periods of bubbles. This one won't be the last one, but the next one might... With Bitcoin being secure, immutable, and having a scarce and predictable supply, it too is obvious people will begin to store their wealth in it as volatility continues to decrease. The floodgates will be opened once an ETF is successfully listed and there is more regulatory clarity. It could get to a point where national governments purchase BTC to hoard it as part of their reserves.

My predictions were...
1. There will be regulation in place.
2. Regulation will increase adoption.
So please don't cherry pick my comments and insult me by saying "Its obvious that regulation will increase adoption."
You can see one side of the coin, but fail to see the other accompanying side.

And by the way, argue all you like, but I also said in my past comments that Bitcoin is a shitcoin. Yes, you may call me names and insult me for calling Bitcoin a shitcoin just as others insulted me for saying there will be regulation.

Someone in an article said Bitcoin will be killed by its hardforks. I said it similarly last year in other site. Too bad I cannot brag about this here because I didn't make my comments in this forum. But I know I was proven right about this too.

And to your comment that BTC will be purchased by governments, I don't think so.

enhu

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I saw a thread in the forum where someone also predicted BTC to $500K, that's the most insane prediction you could ever hear but I may not live that far whenever that happen. People may not afford BTC anymore and will shift to ETH and the alts.

Quote from: fabiorem on June 13, 2018, 11:12:07 AM

Quote from: BitcoinNewbie15 on June 13, 2018, 11:01:41 AM

Its obvious that regulation will increase adoption.

The only way that regulation can lead to increased adoption is to put limits in the exchanges. In that way, people would not panic sell, and would feel more safe when bitcoin goes down.

Limiting will also make those people back away from investing because most the reason why they get into crypto is because of profit too.

fabiorem

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Quote from: BitcoinNewbie15 on June 13, 2018, 11:01:41 AM

Its obvious that regulation will increase adoption.

The only way that regulation can lead to increased adoption is to put limits in the exchanges. In that way, people would not panic sell, and would feel more safe when bitcoin goes down.

BitcoinNewbie15

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Bitcoin isn't a bubble. It's the pin!

Quote from: Dorkie on June 13, 2018, 10:29:35 AM

Quote from: olumyd on June 13, 2018, 09:44:47 AM

Quite so much to take in at the moment, but if there's a flaw to your logic, is the fact that you aren't considering the possibilities of regulation and mainstream economic opportunities that may sway this reasoning. However, I do agree that bitcoin's rally beyond $10k USD is a little too comfortable.

Even in the very early days before most of today's newbies are into this, I already made comments elsewhere (not in bitcointalk forum, but in ccn.com, previously known as cryptocoinsnews.com) that regulation will be in place and that all major countries will adopt cryptocurrencies.

At that time, many people were insulting me for that because they said cryptocurrencies cannot be regulated and will never be regulated. But so far I was proven 100% correct on that. Indeed, regulatory framework is being set in place.

So, I have already factored in regulation into the picture. As a matter of fact, I also said in those comments of mine that regulation will actually help cryptocurrencies to reach mainstream adoption. And so far, I was proven correct too, at least from what the news are reporting, i.e. regulation will make it safe for institutions to join in, etc. Grin

Its obvious that regulation will increase adoption. I wouldn't really call that one a prediction. Bitcoin goes through these periods of bubbles. This one won't be the last one, but the next one might... With Bitcoin being secure, immutable, and having a scarce and predictable supply, it too is obvious people will begin to store their wealth in it as volatility continues to decrease. The floodgates will be opened once an ETF is successfully listed and there is more regulatory clarity. It could get to a point where national governments purchase BTC to hoard it as part of their reserves.

Dorkie

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Quote from: olumyd on June 13, 2018, 09:44:47 AM

Quite so much to take in at the moment, but if there's a flaw to your logic, is the fact that you aren't considering the possibilities of regulation and mainstream economic opportunities that may sway this reasoning. However, I do agree that bitcoin's rally beyond $10k USD is a little too comfortable.

Even in the very early days before most of today's newbies are into this, I already made comments elsewhere (not in bitcointalk forum, but in ccn.com, previously known as cryptocoinsnews.com) that regulation will be in place and that all major countries will adopt cryptocurrencies.

At that time, many people were insulting me for that because they said cryptocurrencies cannot be regulated and will never be regulated. But so far I was proven 100% correct on that. Indeed, regulatory framework is being set in place.

So, I have already factored in regulation into the picture. As a matter of fact, I also said in those comments of mine that regulation will actually help cryptocurrencies to reach mainstream adoption. And so far, I was proven correct too, at least from what the news are reporting, i.e. regulation will make it safe for institutions to join in, etc. Grin

cutikanzilong

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Quote from: Dorkie on November 06, 2017, 05:52:32 AM

My "Most Insane Prediction" is based on a few thesis: 1) Be a total contrarian to general assumption and expectation, and 2) Be totally beyond commonly accepted reason and logic, and yet remain rational.

So here goes...

This is the generally accepted one:
1. Bitcoin will reach USD10,000 and slightly beyond from now to early or mid of 2018.

This is the "Insane" one:
2. This rally to USD10,000 will be Bitcoin's final rally.
3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.
4. After reaching the USD10,000 level, Bitcoin will revisit the 2013 price pattern event whereby the price will start to decline lower and lower for several years.
5. Many will think reaching USD100,000 is a possibility too in the future, and proceed to sell their houses and cars to get into Bitcoin, and suffer losses or missed opportunities.
6. The top Bitcoin elite owners (all the way back in 2009/2010) that constitutes the most concentrated top Bitcoin holdings, start selling/cashing out to the ultimate bag holders that are late into the game.
7. Bitcoin will fall from the top #1 position by end of 2018.
8. Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin to be the #1 in the same time period.

Note:
You may disagree all you like, but as I said, this is "My Most Insane Prediction".

everyone is free to live and dream as high as possible. But we do not know in the future Bitcoin will be how it is. For example at this time Bitcoin prices tend to decrease continuously and accompanied by altcoin also come down the price

olumyd

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Quote from: Dorkie on November 06, 2017, 05:52:32 AM

My "Most Insane Prediction" is based on a few thesis: 1) Be a total contrarian to general assumption and expectation, and 2) Be totally beyond commonly accepted reason and logic, and yet remain rational.

So here goes...

This is the generally accepted one:
1. Bitcoin will reach USD10,000 and slightly beyond from now to early or mid of 2018.

This is the "Insane" one:
2. This rally to USD10,000 will be Bitcoin's final rally.
3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.
4. After reaching the USD10,000 level, Bitcoin will revisit the 2013 price pattern event whereby the price will start to decline lower and lower for several years.
5. Many will think reaching USD100,000 is a possibility too in the future, and proceed to sell their houses and cars to get into Bitcoin, and suffer losses or missed opportunities.
6. The top Bitcoin elite owners (all the way back in 2009/2010) that constitutes the most concentrated top Bitcoin holdings, start selling/cashing out to the ultimate bag holders that are late into the game.
7. Bitcoin will fall from the top #1 position by end of 2018.
8. Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin to be the #1 in the same time period.

Note:
You may disagree all you like, but as I said, this is "My Most Insane Prediction".

Quite so much to take in at the moment, but if there's a flaw to your logic, is the fact that you aren't considering the possibilities of regulation and mainstream economic opportunities that may sway this reasoning. However, I do agree that bitcoin's rally beyond $10k USD is a little too comfortable.

Dorkie

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on May 29, 2018, 12:13:57 AM

Quote

3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.

In what time frame?

Ahh... forgotten to clarify this.

Time frame is "into the future", as in within your and my lifetime.

Dorkie

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Quote from: Dorkie on November 06, 2017, 05:52:32 AM

6. The top Bitcoin elite owners (all the way back in 2009/2010) that constitutes the most concentrated top Bitcoin holdings, start selling/cashing out to the ultimate bag holders that are late into the game.

Brag when it's time to brag...

This recent article at https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-decline-caused-by-hodlers-unprecedented-30-billion-sell-off-research/ just validated my point #6 that...

Quote

... new research from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis suggests that it was long-term investors, hands calloused from years of hodling though they may have been, who triggered the decline and then continued to sell into the dip — to the tune of $30 billion worth of bitcoin between Dec. 2017 and April 2018.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: Dorkie on May 28, 2018, 09:23:26 PM

Bump for review.

Quote from: Dorkie on November 06, 2017, 05:52:32 AM

My "Most Insane Prediction" is based on a few thesis: 1) Be a total contrarian to general assumption and expectation, and 2) Be totally beyond commonly accepted reason and logic, and yet remain rational.

So here goes...

This is the "Insane" one:
2. This rally to USD10,000 will be Bitcoin's final rally.

That already was clear during the time of your post, and going to $15,000 was also expected. $20,000 was a surprise in my opinion.

Quote

3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.

In what time frame?

Quote

4. After reaching the USD10,000 level, Bitcoin will revisit the 2013 price pattern event whereby the price will start to decline lower and lower for several years.

I agree with this sentiment, but it would not take several years. I believe the halving on 2020 will cause another climb to a new all time high.

Quote

5. Many will think reaching USD100,000 is a possibility too in the future, and proceed to sell their houses and cars to get into Bitcoin, and suffer losses or missed opportunities.

Buy now while the price is under $10,000.

Quote

6. The top Bitcoin elite owners (all the way back in 2009/2010) that constitutes the most concentrated top Bitcoin holdings, start selling/cashing out to the ultimate bag holders that are late into the game.

I believe most of them have already done it except for a few Bitcoin figures like Mircea Popescu, who will never sell. I could be mistaken.

Quote

7. Bitcoin will fall from the top #1 position by end of 2018.

8. Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin to be the #1 in the same time period.

No, that will not happen. Haha.

But let's revisit this topic on December 31, 2018.

Dorkie

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Bump for review.

fxbit

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Quote from: MiningSensei on November 06, 2017, 03:52:37 PM

You are probably right, i always knew that bitcoin was never going to be over ten thousand dollars because it is pretty impossible, i read a lot of post of optimist people saying that bitcoin was going to be more than 20-30-50 thousand dollars by the end of this and the next year, and it is insane, if you think about, it is impossible because that is a very huge amount of money.
But bitcoin will always be the #1 on the crypto list, there is no way that it could fall from there.

Looking to move my bitcoin to gold at $10000 just to be safe, but I really think $20000 still reasonable and $25000 should be achievable by end of 2018, it is capital flight that can drive the market to this insane price

iqlimasyadiqa

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Quote from: Youghoor on November 06, 2017, 04:16:35 PM

I agree with almost everything that you wrote on this post, you are perfect man, you are probably the most honest person that i have ever seen on this forum.. A lot of people are spreading fake news about bitcoin, X bussiness, Amazon accepting bitcoins, X country accepting bitcoin.. and the list is so long, they all want to rise bitcoin at all costs, and this is why bitcoin has been very bullish lately.
But yes, of course that we all want to see it going bullish, but that is not the way, and 10$k, it is a fair rate for me.

You're just the same. We can not be quite sure of Bitcoin's future price movement forecast. All this is merely a speculation that could not have happened. So you should be very concerned that Bitcoin is a thing that can not be predicted exactly. most people can only see if the price of Bitcoin will increase or decrease. Everyone in the world today knows only that Bitcoin is a very profitable currency and investment.

Youghoor

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I agree with almost everything that you wrote on this post, you are perfect man, you are probably the most honest person that i have ever seen on this forum.. A lot of people are spreading fake news about bitcoin, X bussiness, Amazon accepting bitcoins, X country accepting bitcoin.. and the list is so long, they all want to rise bitcoin at all costs, and this is why bitcoin has been very bullish lately.
But yes, of course that we all want to see it going bullish, but that is not the way, and 10$k, it is a fair rate for me.

MissionPhailed

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Indeed: the gradual decline of Bitcoin prices after the ATH of november 2013 was caused by the combination of the Mt.Gox hack and Bitcoin still being in its early and fragile years. We've now got a plethora of exchanges around. Although the OP doesn't give a reason why BTC could be overtaken by alts in the (near) future, it is certainly a possible scenario; it was close to happening in last June when BTC was about to crumble under the onslaught of the alts.

MiningSensei

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You are probably right, i always knew that bitcoin was never going to be over ten thousand dollars because it is pretty impossible, i read a lot of post of optimist people saying that bitcoin was going to be more than 20-30-50 thousand dollars by the end of this and the next year, and it is insane, if you think about, it is impossible because that is a very huge amount of money.
But bitcoin will always be the #1 on the crypto list, there is no way that it could fall from there.

thecodebear

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Quote from: Dorkie on November 06, 2017, 05:52:32 AM

My "Most Insane Prediction" is based on a few thesis: 1) Be a total contrarian to general assumption and expectation, and 2) Be totally beyond commonly accepted reason and logic, and yet remain rational.

So here goes...

This is the generally accepted one:
1. Bitcoin will reach USD10,000 and slightly beyond from now to early or mid of 2018.

This is the "Insane" one:
2. This rally to USD10,000 will be Bitcoin's final rally.
3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.
4. After reaching the USD10,000 level, Bitcoin will revisit the 2013 price pattern event whereby the price will start to decline lower and lower for several years.
5. Many will think reaching USD100,000 is a possibility too in the future, and proceed to sell their houses and cars to get into Bitcoin, and suffer losses or missed opportunities.
6. The top Bitcoin elite owners (all the way back in 2009/2010) that constitutes the most concentrated top Bitcoin holdings, start selling/cashing out to the ultimate bag holders that are late into the game.
7. Bitcoin will fall from the top #1 position by end of 2018.
8. Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin to be the #1 in the same time period.

Note:
You may disagree all you like, but as I said, this is "My Most Insane Prediction".

So your entire "insane prediction" is based on another Mt.Gox-type event happening. The type of event that literally scared everyone out of holding bitcoin, that's the only way Bitcoin isn't going to continue skyrocketing.

Topic: My Most Insane Prediction of Bitcoin & Ethereum - page 2. (Read 1006 times)