my new diff thread covers Oct 23 to nov 5? +0.033% to +1.16% ? - page 2.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: seriouscoin on November 02, 2014, 03:39:06 PM

Quote from: taipo on November 02, 2014, 03:04:39 PM

When the difficulty hits 50B at current tech & current avg watts, big players will start thinking about calling a world-wide truce. Hashrate will top out somewhere after 400PH and well before 700PH unless someone invents a quantum miner.....

Next gen ASIC is claimed to be 0.2w/GHs (SP). 700PH is entirely possible. To to mention i know some mega miners are expanding with 3 cents per KWh contract. They will keep expanding to get a bigger pie. Only idiots like OP keep using "bitcoin calculator" with wrong variable.

yeah thats right and when btc drops to 200 usd they go fully red and belly up.

I never said they won't expand I just say they will expand very slowly. The 10 % you see is the exception under 5 or 6 will be more common.

seriouscoin

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Quote from: taipo on November 02, 2014, 03:04:39 PM

When the difficulty hits 50B at current tech & current avg watts, big players will start thinking about calling a world-wide truce. Hashrate will top out somewhere after 400PH and well before 700PH unless someone invents a quantum miner.....

Next gen ASIC is claimed to be 0.2w/GHs (SP). 700PH is entirely possible. To to mention i know some mega miners are expanding with 3 cents per KWh contract. They will keep expanding to get a bigger pie. Only idiots like OP keep using "bitcoin calculator" with wrong variable.

taipo

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Kia ora!

When the difficulty hits 50B at current tech & current avg watts, big players will start thinking about calling a world-wide truce. Hashrate will top out somewhere after 400PH and well before 700PH unless someone invents a quantum miner.....

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: skuser on November 02, 2014, 07:09:55 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 02, 2014, 12:52:05 AM

That is correct they have no incentive to raise growth to 10%.(with current btc price).

As it Hurts their bottom line if they want to continue to stay in the game.

I am afraid you're wrong on this. If you take it from business point of view, if you offered someone (investor) 100% p.a. return, they would go crazy after it. If you manage to buy 1TH at $300 (should be no problem in large scales at all), get electricity at $0.05 kWh and burn 0.5W/GHs, you have all your money back +100% within 1 year even at 5% per difficulty growth and what is important positive cash flow even at difficulty 150 millions. So you have a lot of space to play with btc price vulnerabities etc. Main problem with this setup would be reward halving in August 2016, which is the only point I expect the difficulty to drop and it's probably final calculation point for all these projects.

So imagine how many people can have the same idea. There will probably not many able to collect $10 mil but if someone succeeds you have 30PH/s growth here and there from time to time.
It has nothing with chip producers IMHO. They just want to make money, not stay in the game by NOT producing.

okay so 300 per 1th is possible. and some have 6 cent power. look at these figures the margins are razor tight. margins are so tight for miners almost no one can buy a miner at 300 a th installed that has 6 cent power .

and for the ones that do have this 6 cent power and can install 1th miners at 300 usd each. they have to have 6% growth rate and coins stable at 320 usd to make money.

and as notlist3d pointed out the current 10% jump kills everyone if we pop 10% 5x in a row no one will mine at a profit. so my premise is restriction of gear is in the builders interest more then the small home miners

notlist3d

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Quote from: mavericklm on November 02, 2014, 09:27:07 AM

it's a fucking race to 2016! some of them are racing to 2020!
what if they calculate theyr profits with 13%increase in difficulty, and they can go all the way to 2020?

Estimated Next Difficulty: 39,698,674,929 (+10.32%) Grin

Ouch this one is going to hurt.

mavericklm

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

it's a fucking race to 2016! some of them are racing to 2020!
what if they calculate theyr profits with 13%increase in difficulty, and they can go all the way to 2020?

Estimated Next Difficulty: 39,698,674,929 (+10.32%) Grin

skuser

sr. member

Activity: 291

Merit: 250

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 02, 2014, 12:52:05 AM

That is correct they have no incentive to raise growth to 10%.(with current btc price).

As it Hurts their bottom line if they want to continue to stay in the game.

I am afraid you're wrong on this. If you take it from business point of view, if you offered someone (investor) 100% p.a. return, they would go crazy after it. If you manage to buy 1TH at $300 (should be no problem in large scales at all), get electricity at $0.05 kWh and burn 0.5W/GHs, you have all your money back +100% within 1 year even at 5% per difficulty growth and what is important positive cash flow even at difficulty 150 millions. So you have a lot of space to play with btc price vulnerabities etc. Main problem with this setup would be reward halving in August 2016, which is the only point I expect the difficulty to drop and it's probably final calculation point for all these projects.

So imagine how many people can have the same idea. There will probably not many able to collect $10 mil but if someone succeeds you have 30PH/s growth here and there from time to time.
It has nothing with chip producers IMHO. They just want to make money, not stay in the game by NOT producing.

mavericklm

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

The manufacturers? How about hyenas? Hungry hyenas wanting a slice of the pie? And newer hyenas comming in!

What if the cost of a 1th/s miner is only 100bucks for them???

seriouscoin

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 02, 2014, 12:52:05 AM

Quote from: seriouscoin on November 02, 2014, 12:44:15 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 01, 2014, 08:48:42 AM

Quote from: seriouscoin on October 31, 2014, 10:46:02 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on October 31, 2014, 09:00:29 PM

Quote from: seriouscoin on October 31, 2014, 04:13:47 PM

Another useless thread of " i think big players have no reason to expand ...."

OP, arent you tired of playing the same drum? Its like watching a monkey playing guitar hero.

Here is the fact: guessing network difficulty is pointless. Only need to look at the avg operating cost

I can bang my drum as loud and often as you do my lovely friend. I don't guess I use simple principles of cost accounting as do the 5 top asic builders.

It is really simple they will not build out like mad they do the math I do. At 300-350 the risk to build is far too high. They will continue slow growth

thats my drum and I am banging it my friend.

Do you know what the definition of insanity?

Repeating the samething and expect different results.

You keep using current BTC price and saying " risk is far too high" LOL yet you dont even know their reward. Stupid fck. Sounds like you just pull shit out of your ass.... but then call it "math".

So pleasant today. Good morning to you. Well coins dropped to 320 usd today.

I did two things this morning;

I purchased an antminer s-3 for 222.22 usd pre discount after discount 201 usd .

I also purchased 0.5 btc at 323 usd a btc

And what did the big guys do overnight . I don't know do you? A small drop in diff overnight 7.5 to 6.5 %

How was your investing did you do any serious moves with coins?

Hint my agenda is very simple. I just point out that the sky is not falling.

What is your agenda my friend?

BTC is dead? Mining is dead? please tell us.

BTW I will be starting a new diff thread on NOV 5 -7 when the next jumps happens.

I dont have an agenda. Do you?

Because you keep making stupid guesses. Look at all the shit the manufacturer has been selling recently, all sold out. Meanwhile, you dumbshit are still claiming...."no more incentive for big players to produce more miners"

That is correct they have no incentive to raise growth to 10%.(with current btc price).

As it Hurts their bottom line if they want to continue to stay in the game.

Another shit pulled from your ass?

Dumbshit, do you ever think having the best electrical rate means all these new miners will be out of commissions very soon?

Here is the scheme: sell as much miners NOW as they can (even if its just breakeven or low margin, let the idiots think they might have a chance of ROI), use sales revenue to ramp up farms capacities which pay 2-4cent/KWh, while the avg mining cost is still 8cent/KWh.

Yeah looks like their bottom line is even sweeter....

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: seriouscoin on November 02, 2014, 12:44:15 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 01, 2014, 08:48:42 AM

Quote from: seriouscoin on October 31, 2014, 10:46:02 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on October 31, 2014, 09:00:29 PM

Quote from: seriouscoin on October 31, 2014, 04:13:47 PM

Another useless thread of " i think big players have no reason to expand ...."

OP, arent you tired of playing the same drum? Its like watching a monkey playing guitar hero.

Here is the fact: guessing network difficulty is pointless. Only need to look at the avg operating cost

I can bang my drum as loud and often as you do my lovely friend. I don't guess I use simple principles of cost accounting as do the 5 top asic builders.

It is really simple they will not build out like mad they do the math I do. At 300-350 the risk to build is far too high. They will continue slow growth

thats my drum and I am banging it my friend.

Do you know what the definition of insanity?

Repeating the samething and expect different results.

You keep using current BTC price and saying " risk is far too high" LOL yet you dont even know their reward. Stupid fck. Sounds like you just pull shit out of your ass.... but then call it "math".

So pleasant today. Good morning to you. Well coins dropped to 320 usd today.

I did two things this morning;

I purchased an antminer s-3 for 222.22 usd pre discount after discount 201 usd .

I also purchased 0.5 btc at 323 usd a btc

And what did the big guys do overnight . I don't know do you? A small drop in diff overnight 7.5 to 6.5 %

How was your investing did you do any serious moves with coins?

Hint my agenda is very simple. I just point out that the sky is not falling.

What is your agenda my friend?

BTC is dead? Mining is dead? please tell us.

BTW I will be starting a new diff thread on NOV 5 -7 when the next jumps happens.

I dont have an agenda. Do you?

Because you keep making stupid guesses. Look at all the shit the manufacturer has been selling recently, all sold out. Meanwhile, you dumbshit are still claiming...."no more incentive for big players to produce more miners"

That is correct they have no incentive to raise growth to 10%.(with current btc price).

As it Hurts their bottom line if they want to continue to stay in the game.

seriouscoin

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 01, 2014, 08:48:42 AM

Quote from: seriouscoin on October 31, 2014, 10:46:02 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on October 31, 2014, 09:00:29 PM

Quote from: seriouscoin on October 31, 2014, 04:13:47 PM

Another useless thread of " i think big players have no reason to expand ...."

OP, arent you tired of playing the same drum? Its like watching a monkey playing guitar hero.

Here is the fact: guessing network difficulty is pointless. Only need to look at the avg operating cost

I can bang my drum as loud and often as you do my lovely friend. I don't guess I use simple principles of cost accounting as do the 5 top asic builders.

It is really simple they will not build out like mad they do the math I do. At 300-350 the risk to build is far too high. They will continue slow growth

thats my drum and I am banging it my friend.

Do you know what the definition of insanity?

Repeating the samething and expect different results.

You keep using current BTC price and saying " risk is far too high" LOL yet you dont even know their reward. Stupid fck. Sounds like you just pull shit out of your ass.... but then call it "math".

So pleasant today. Good morning to you. Well coins dropped to 320 usd today.

I did two things this morning;

I purchased an antminer s-3 for 222.22 usd pre discount after discount 201 usd .

I also purchased 0.5 btc at 323 usd a btc

And what did the big guys do overnight . I don't know do you? A small drop in diff overnight 7.5 to 6.5 %

How was your investing did you do any serious moves with coins?

Hint my agenda is very simple. I just point out that the sky is not falling.

What is your agenda my friend?

BTC is dead? Mining is dead? please tell us.

BTW I will be starting a new diff thread on NOV 5 -7 when the next jumps happens.

I dont have an agenda. Do you?

Because you keep making stupid guesses. Look at all the shit the manufacturer has been selling recently, all sold out. Meanwhile, you dumbshit are still claiming...."no more incentive for big players to produce more miners"

mavericklm

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

hitting 10% in 12hours? Grin

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: seriouscoin on October 31, 2014, 10:46:02 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on October 31, 2014, 09:00:29 PM

Quote from: seriouscoin on October 31, 2014, 04:13:47 PM

Another useless thread of " i think big players have no reason to expand ...."

OP, arent you tired of playing the same drum? Its like watching a monkey playing guitar hero.

Here is the fact: guessing network difficulty is pointless. Only need to look at the avg operating cost

I can bang my drum as loud and often as you do my lovely friend. I don't guess I use simple principles of cost accounting as do the 5 top asic builders.

It is really simple they will not build out like mad they do the math I do. At 300-350 the risk to build is far too high. They will continue slow growth

thats my drum and I am banging it my friend.

Do you know what the definition of insanity?

Repeating the samething and expect different results.

You keep using current BTC price and saying " risk is far too high" LOL yet you dont even know their reward. Stupid fck. Sounds like you just pull shit out of your ass.... but then call it "math".

So pleasant today. Good morning to you. Well coins dropped to 320 usd today.

I did two things this morning;

I purchased an antminer s-3 for 222.22 usd pre discount after discount 201 usd .

I also purchased 0.5 btc at 323 usd a btc

And what did the big guys do overnight . I don't know do you? A small drop in diff overnight 7.5 to 6.5 %

How was your investing did you do any serious moves with coins?

Hint my agenda is very simple. I just point out that the sky is not falling.

What is your agenda my friend?

BTC is dead? Mining is dead? please tell us.

BTW I will be starting a new diff thread on NOV 5 -7 when the next jumps happens.

seriouscoin

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Quote from: philipma1957 on October 31, 2014, 09:00:29 PM

Quote from: seriouscoin on October 31, 2014, 04:13:47 PM

Another useless thread of " i think big players have no reason to expand ...."

OP, arent you tired of playing the same drum? Its like watching a monkey playing guitar hero.

Here is the fact: guessing network difficulty is pointless. Only need to look at the avg operating cost

I can bang my drum as loud and often as you do my lovely friend. I don't guess I use simple principles of cost accounting as do the 5 top asic builders.

It is really simple they will not build out like mad they do the math I do. At 300-350 the risk to build is far too high. They will continue slow growth

thats my drum and I am banging it my friend.

Do you know what the definition of insanity?

Repeating the samething and expect different results.

You keep using current BTC price and saying " risk is far too high" LOL yet you dont even know their reward. Stupid fck. Sounds like you just pull shit out of your ass.... but then call it "math".

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: seriouscoin on October 31, 2014, 04:13:47 PM

Another useless thread of " i think big players have no reason to expand ...."

OP, arent you tired of playing the same drum? Its like watching a monkey playing guitar hero.

Here is the fact: guessing network difficulty is pointless. Only need to look at the avg operating cost

I can bang my drum as loud and often as you do my lovely friend. I don't guess I use simple principles of cost accounting as do the 5 top asic builders.

It is really simple they will not build out like mad they do the math I do. At 300-350 the risk to build is far too high. They will continue slow growth

thats my drum and I am banging it my friend.

seriouscoin

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Another useless thread of " i think big players have no reason to expand ...."

OP, arent you tired of playing the same drum? Its like watching a monkey playing guitar hero.

Here is the fact: guessing network difficulty is pointless. Only need to look at the avg operating cost

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: skuser on October 31, 2014, 01:08:50 PM

Looks like another +10% massacre this period
http://nextdifficulty.com/

while some may think or predict 10%

http://bitcoincharts.com/

Difficulty   35985640265

Estimated   37766338259 in 704 blks

comes to 4.94 %

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   35,985,640,265

Estimated Next Difficulty:   38,680,200,371 (+7.49%)

both are under 10%

frankly we all know big builders are expanding . I can tell you this if we shift to a 10% jump we are in for very interesting times.

Maybe just maybe someone has made a .2 watt machine.

skuser

sr. member

Activity: 291

Merit: 250

Looks like another +10% massacre this period
http://nextdifficulty.com/

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Thread locked look for a new one soon!!

running from 0.033% to 1.16%

I still see no reason for builders to push for more data centers

With current coinbase price at $363 usd a coin

building bigger data centers have big downsides. 1 good price drop under 200 and the big guy will be seriously set back.

I wonder how long we stay at 300-400 btc price

because at that price growth will be very low.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   35,985,640,265
Estimated Next Difficulty:   36,402,957,513 (+1.16%)
Adjust time:   After 1961 Blocks, About 13.6 days
Hashrate(?):   259,882,798 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.7 minutes
Updated:   13:40 (5.2 minutes ago)

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/
.033 %

Blocks   326647
Total BTC   13.416M

Difficulty   35985640265
Estimated   35997038050 in 1961 blks

Network total   267760.088 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.31 / 570 s

Topic: my new diff thread covers Oct 23 to nov 5? +0.033% to +1.16% ? - page 2. (Read 3426 times)