Topic: My Opposite Take on the "UP UP UP!" Mentality. - page 2. (Read 3952 times)

Lol rename this thread to "reasons to hate bitcoin so the price goes down so I can buy cheap"

Sorry, but that is just FUD.

If a company defrauds customers it is this company that is likely to face problems but not their payment processor. While I am not too familiar on US regulations in these matters, at least BitPay is a FinCEN registered MSB and I know of several other (non-US) services which are at least in the process of getting licenced as a payment service provider in their respective countries.

Stating that all Bitcoin intermediaries are potential scammers and that there are "no regulations" is plain wrong.

Lets say "a certain amount" of volatility. You do recognize that they do play the market with their clients funds?
The thing is: We can't know what volatility would be without them doing it.

And finally: They do increase volatility in a sense that they contribute to the hype. Now if you want to ride that hype it is clear that you actually like that. What you have to consider though is that real adoption takes place, albeit at a slower rate. That is sites accepting bitcoin directly, for donation proposes.
What I am suggesting is that without bitpay we would already be seeing more of that plus some stuff actually priced in bitcoin.

You can also argue that anything that might hurt Bitcoin in the long run (e.g. too high volatility) is diametrical to Bitpay's interests.
I don't really buy the "Bitpay is manipulating the market to hurt competition" argument.

Except one thing: It is in the best interest of bitpay to have volatility as high as their system can handle in order to make it unfeasible to accept bitcoins directly.
They admitted to playing the market with their clients funds before (for ex, "short squeezing pirate), and it would be easy and more profitable for them to continue doing it, both from a profit perspective and for maintaining their business model.

 
If it just were for using them for merchant payments there are other ways this can work, without a payment processor. Using pre-generated adresses from an offline wallet is as secure and as easy to implement.

That's like saying "do you think wordpress and others will switch to another scammer when they will be screwed by their credit cards processor?"

I understand that you think bitcoins are overpriced and all (with pretty good arguments), but this one is just dishonest.

Good. Do you think wordpress and others will switch to another scammer when they will be screwed for good amount of fiat?

That's why there's also BIPS.

Bad use. Bitcoin intermediaries are all potentional scammers, as no regulation here.

FTC BFL investigation -> Bitpay suspect -> Bitpay close -> Wordpress, Namecheap, 1000+ accounts leave without money. -> RUMORS!

or

WHATEVER -> Bitpay close -> Wordpress, Namecheap, 1000+ accounts leave without money. -> RUMORS!

Very bad usage.

You can't really separate Bitcoin the currency from Bitcoin the payment network either.

If a company accepts Bitcoin as an alternative for existing payment networks without ever really holding Bitcoin itself (by using some automated conversion service) then that's also a perfectly good use of Bitcoin. Bitpay can operate at a profit while still saving their clients money over other payment methods (e.g. Paypal). Even if Bitpay (or Mt.Gox for that matter) was shut down for whatever reason, there would soon be others to take its place because it is simply a profitable business model and it will remain so as long as traditional payment services don't lower their prices or increasing regulation for Bitcoin makes converting it considerably more expensive.

Let's face it: Bitcoin is not something people have to believe in for it to work. Bitcoin is a working technology that can be used to build quite profitable businesses on. People just using it to pay without speculating on future exchange rates is not a problem for Bitcoin at all.

Hehe. Bitpay laundered money for this crime. Stay tuned =) 25 millions dollars.

I think the most risk comes from the inside of those ventures. They both operate without oversight and have a near monopoly.
There are so many things that can go wrong, ticking timebombs.

The other thing is BFL which is as shady as ever which actually may serve as a premature trigger.

Not mtgox and/or bitpay, but this bubble. Instantly fall to hell.

Well i have to oppose. The fluctuation was due to a lack of liquidity in the market. It's currently leveling out. No more big buys, this will soon be a non issue.  Ever tried to buy stocks? The trading system for stock holds is a bit smoother but purchasing in is still about the same amount of effort if not more. You just got lucky and got in early when purchasing is a bit more tedious, but the gains are higher

MtGox and BitPay are pretty big, attackable targets to attack if someone wanted to hurt Bitcoins, don't they?

Bitcoin itself might not be closed down anytime soon but all this is now pretty valuable for something still so risky.

+21000000

My five cents.

All this bubble only exists due two companies: MtGox (which is moving its funds to democracy fortress) and Bitpay.

All "adoption" is based only on these two, as no one will accept bitcoin directly due to its current volatility.

If something will go wrong with either MtGox or Bitpay... Everything will disappear in just one moment.

"Wordpress accepts Bitcoin" and (real) "Wordpress accepts Bitpay" is really two different statements. And looks like most people mislead them.

Well, I see a lot of bulls showing exponential growth with everyone getting rich still. I see a dead cat bounce.



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Bitcoins


I certainly do agree with the qualities of Bitcoins. But they don't appeal that much to the mass, but to a fringe community of users. They're much harder to use than older payment methods and unless someone absolutely needs/wants anonymity, will probably not go through the trouble of getting Bitcoins.

I also think these wild rides up followed by crash reduces relegate Bitcoins to a joke, at least for now, in the eyes of most out there. Albeit we're gradually getting more exposures/interest in Bitcoins, I believe.

The wild fluctuations are a nuisance which will delay Bitcoin adoption, in my opinion. It makes it a casino. A gambling speculative toy and reduces it's efficiency as a currency.

The software is also still quite immature and the limits imposed on transactions and the size of the current blockchain are already put under strain. We need more years of development before it becomes suitable for day to day usage, if ever.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Bubble


I currently see a bubble, fueled by hype. The current upswing being the "dead cat bounce" after the crash, albeit it's losing speed. There was more and more news along the way up. There's still a lot going out albeit less and I believe it will keep going lower and lower for that part. Now that we peaked and crashed, the topic is less sensational and I expect medias to slowly move away, for the time being. Search trends for Bitcoins has been on the decline. Will it keep going that way?


If it does, the influx of new money might be cut short. The latest uptrend might be just a dead cat bounce, latecomers going for the "cheap" Bitcoins, but if the influx isn't maintained, the buying spree might get short of breath. I see a rebound that is running out of momentum.



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
How I trade


So I have a completely opposite view to most out there it seems, not really being much interested in daytrading. Plotting charts might work well over the short term for a matter of hours/days, or even a few weeks. But on the long term, nothing beats the hype cycles which peak with media attention and mass enthusiasm. And those are fairly hard to predict in advance seeing one could start anytime with good news drawing more attention, more involvement and further fueling more news/enthusiasm in a self-feeding loop. Albeit once they start, the outcome is easy to guess. I started some time ago in the lows following the first Bitcoin bubble. I sold at the peak of the news, far fetched stories of various hypothetical scenarios where Bitcoins were about to go even more exponential in prices, when the amount of enthusiasm and imagined outcomes was stepping close to mass madness. Prices promptly came crashing down. Where did you sell at?

Many disruptive technologies were adopted fast, but it still took years for everyone to start using them. The telephone wasn't adopted in a few weeks. Computers were not adopted in a few weeks. The Internet was not adopted in a few weeks. Social networking sites like Facebook didn't become popular in a few weeks. It takes time for new things to mature into something that can make their way out there, if they ever do. Bitcoins might not even be the cryptocurrency to make it, if any cryptocurrency ever makes it.

My answer: