Topic: My position (Read 3150 times)

I was one of those who sold at 7ish and bought back in at 4.8 since it was pretty much a major moving average...was amazed how fast it happened though. But, then I was an idiot who shorted at 6.25 and covered at 6.35 only to see the price fall to 5.5 at which I bought back in only to see the price fall to 5ish. Waited for the price to recover to 5.45 and sold again only to see the price break 6 again. The lesson here is that the less you trade the better. Decide whether you are bullish or bearish bitcoin in the long run and trade only extremes. Back in at 5.82 and going to be a little less active as a bitcoin trader and more of a bitcoin investor at least until we start hitting extremely overbought conditions like we had at 7.2.

It was not me. This is not a Russian proverb, it just means that "just did not happen, should the customer, Chief Executive"

Now you're just making that one up. I might have believed all your other Russian proverbs, but not that one.

Hindsight is 20/20.

Some may of sold at $7.2 and then got back in at $4.8 but those that did I can count with 1 hand.

The correlation is not that important for me if you don't provide a mechanism how it works - because without it you'll never know when it will stop working.  Also the fact that the the trends are correlated with price of three days ahead does not mean that the trends are not correlated with future prices.  It is pretty obvious that popularity (which I assume is correlated with google trends) leads to more people investing in bitcoin and more money entering the system - that the opposite effect is more visible is perhaps because people who hear about such a fast growing investment tend to google it up pretty quickly (in three days perhaps) - while the path from looking it up to investing takes more time and is more variable.

I hope that will not happen. But my grandfather said, "If the elephant pushes to itself in an ass the trunk - Means Somebody wishes it"

Wont happen.

Well, I think that the biggest threat - it is "taking the masses of people," Why? Because the masses are not educated (in the technical sense) they can be "fed" fake fake site contains bitcoin client - and no one not even check how it works. You can even binary. We get a giant "fork" of transactions. And 50% of the attack is successfully done. necessary:
1) The fake site contains "special client"
2)Massive PR Company
done
The end of the game.

+1

Edit:  I have been looking at the monthly charts regularly, looking for the longer trend lines (if any?).
Looking at the daily/weekly charts its just seems like so much noise. Day-trading in BTC is too volatile
for me,  for now,  so I'm investing long.

My bad, sounded so absolute with the can not. Short term will be rough, lots of lows and highs. Hopefully higher than the last  


BTC, I bought at after the second bottom @2.50-3.50 and held (with profits from shorting, should have just went long but wasn't totally sold it would recover well), almost sold when it hit ~4.50 the first time, when it looked like it was gonna crash.  When it hit 5 I gained a little faith and decided to hold and see what happens. Didn't wanna press my luck, tend to quit when I'm ahead. This fund will likely not be touched and is stored away. I plan to move more money in soon, waiting to see what direction zhoutong goes with bitcoinica. If all he does is just move to a different exchange, I may just stay with MtGox since I'm verified already, depends on where he goes.     

I agree that as long as Bitcoin doesn't experience so called serious issues (major technical or legal problems) the growth can also happen based purely on small businesses. That way we won't see explosive growth but slow, ever increasing awareness of Bitcoin which causes more and more small businesses to get attracted to it. Even this route will eventually lead to a bigger business adopting Bitcoin which would cause a larger chain reaction etc. In any event it's important to keep expectations reasonable. Bitcoin is a long term project.

I wonder sitting it out in BTC or USD?

Yes, I was referring to short-term trend of course ... totally agree with you

Why not? Not short term, probably not mid term, but it's not gonna crash and burn spectacularly, I think it's rebounded quite well. I mean, 3,5, 7 years from now don't you think it's conceivable that more internet businesses are turning to electronic currency? I mean even if a big name corporation didn't, there are a lot of small businesses out there that would benefit from it. And they are just gonna hear the word bitcoin more and more often.  It's already proven itself invaluable among the black market, they aren't gonna just stop using it. Don't get caught up in the short term, and don't burn your ass trading.

It could crash and burn though, there are dangers. People get greedy and fork the chain, to make it more "acceptable" to the masses is probably the biggest threat (barring a critical flaw).

Edit:  All bets are off short term though, I'm not trading in this volatility, I'm just sitting it out and waiting.

Well, the Good Wife episode itself had a massive impact. The surprising thing was that it hasn't yet caused a new wave of articles. But it's only a matter of time before we have a new wave of articles. Solving the P2SH issue and finally implementing it would definitely cause a significant amount of articles at least in tech-related sites.

I don't know what zby refers to as our "expected time of mainstream adoption", according to some polls the majority think that it will still take many years before Bitcoin reaches a market cap of 1 billion. I believe this will happen somewhere between 2013 and 2017. It's difficult to predict this accurately because with Bitcoin it works like this: it's very difficult to reach a larger adoption rate in the beginning but once it truly starts, it can be very fast.

Rick Falkvinge is expecting this to happen in 2019, which is the speed in which new technologies usually get adopted. 10 years is what it takes. I'm a little more optimistic than that, but not much. We are still walking baby steps but once something starts happening, it can be fast. That something could be PokerStars accepting Bitcoin as payment or major news sites starting to release more articles on why people should send money using Bitcoin instead of Western Union. Or it could be a major merchant that starts accepting Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has only had one big news success that is based on something real, tangible. That is Silk Road. Everything else is small time or just hype. But we might only need one big success, or a few at most, and the whole thing will explode to a whole other level. It's just a matter of time, but it could take a fairly long time. I'm fully prepared for this, I hope you guys are as well.

I think if there is no special "big news", "PR Company" bitcoin price can not see $ 30 again in short term ... But it's also $ 2 is not reached bottom ... When this happened the first time - no one could even suggest some range of prices. People learn from their mistakes. It was like a "pattern" prices. Imagine for a moment that we have a "rally" ... When it will be closer to $ 30, will be massive profit-taking ... Conversely, in the fall, we will have a very strong support in the range of $ 2. Whatever wrote various "analysts", more and more people realize, analysts only have the goal - "to lead as many sheep to the slaughter" When I wrote the post "Protect the money", I was wondering "what the market response to these post". And it turned out BIG. This shows that, too much influence "guiding hand". This is bad. Many may suffer the losses due to the fact that many people do not build their own strategies but instead relies on "authority analyst" Such wonderful people as Goomboo help it survive Bitcoin Project. I also tried to draw your attention to a long, weekly fluctuations in the indicator Inverse Fisher Transform RSI. I agree - "market should breathe", but not "euthanasia and follow use defibrillator"

I treat that as coincidence - or more precisely a too way feedback loop that just happened to show only one side.  And it is not exact - the episode, for example, did generate quite high peak - the popularity though did not last.  The main idea is that without more popularity I don't see much chances that bitcoin will rally for an extended time period, the prices can lead for some time - but if popularity lags too much - then prices have to go down as well.

+0

what baffles me is that this needs to be reiterated so much around here...

Buying now and staying long is also about beating the market - if you speculate you are trying to beat the market by definition.  There are long term risks as well - for example government crash on bitcoin, or a better solution (maybe one not using so much electricity).  Now there is also a midterm risk that there will not be any more bitcoin speculators and the money in the  system will only oscillate the price back and forth between two numbers.  I am a little bit disappointed by the bitcoin google trends impact resulting from that 'Good Wife' episode.  Maybe the mainstream adoption of bitcoin will be much slower then we imagine.

Here's the problem with selling. Let's say you sell and have an amount sitting on an exchange. Right now we're just speculating and fluctuations are pretty small. Some folks claim they trade their entire wallet for probably relatively small profits. One of these days there will be a major announcement like happened in May 2011. The price will jump quickly and bubble, but who knows what the peak will be? All these small profits from trading will be lost in one single stroke. While I'm sure there are Bitcoin insiders that will know about these announcements before the rest of us, I would hope they don't exploit that fact whether legal or not. In fact, Bitcoin may just blow up and not bubble at all until those people holding large wallets decide they want to live a little.