Topic: My Present Outlook - page 2. (Read 1106 times)
Bear market was over ages ago. But yes I'm cautiously optimistic too. Lets do this.
I never put too much faith in technical analysis (especially the rudimentary form I'll mention), but going by Bitcoin's cycle up to this point of bubbles followed by a V-shaped trough which getss longer in duration each cycle, I feel like we may have just completed another V. At all ranges, Bitcoin's chart is looking remarkably like it did before the 2013 bubble.
Now I'm not saying we'll have a bubble, but given everything that has happened since the 2013 high, the stability we've seen for months, and the now fairly certain bull cycle that we entered a few months ago, I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibilities.
I've been overoptimistic at times so I've tried to just take a long-haul position over the past few years, especially after losing my Mt. Gox and Bitfloor holdings when both exchanges shut down. That said, I'm getting exited. The fundamentals have improved tremendously since December 2013's (admittedly irrational) exuberance.
A few years down the line, we're on the cusp of addressing the Blocksize issue, the regulatory and tax environment, while unfriendly, is at least more certain, we have a halving coming up, and Wall Street is showing more and more interest in the blockchain and even the currency itself. Bitcoin has largely proven itself as a versatile, secure solution.
I'm not going to make bold and detailed predictions because neither I nor anyone else really knows what will happen, but I will say this: I'm as bullish now as I've been in years. We could very well see a spectacular rally on the order of 100, 200 or even 400%+. Sure, it's possible that Bitcoin has matured enough that wild swings are behind us, and it may well be the case that the days of "to the moon" are behind us.
In fact, I hope that's true: Slow, long term growth and stability will serve us much better if adoption is our goal. But the reason I'm most bullish is that those two possibilities (slow, long term growth or a bubble) seem much more likely right now than dropping down a few hundred bucks or a slow decline to obscurity.
The bear market is over. No longer is Bitcoin a toxic asset. We don't know how long the good times will last, but Bitcoin right now has opportunity before it that it hasn't had for awhile.
In other words: I'm cautiously optimistic.
Now I'm not saying we'll have a bubble, but given everything that has happened since the 2013 high, the stability we've seen for months, and the now fairly certain bull cycle that we entered a few months ago, I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibilities.
I've been overoptimistic at times so I've tried to just take a long-haul position over the past few years, especially after losing my Mt. Gox and Bitfloor holdings when both exchanges shut down. That said, I'm getting exited. The fundamentals have improved tremendously since December 2013's (admittedly irrational) exuberance.
A few years down the line, we're on the cusp of addressing the Blocksize issue, the regulatory and tax environment, while unfriendly, is at least more certain, we have a halving coming up, and Wall Street is showing more and more interest in the blockchain and even the currency itself. Bitcoin has largely proven itself as a versatile, secure solution.
I'm not going to make bold and detailed predictions because neither I nor anyone else really knows what will happen, but I will say this: I'm as bullish now as I've been in years. We could very well see a spectacular rally on the order of 100, 200 or even 400%+. Sure, it's possible that Bitcoin has matured enough that wild swings are behind us, and it may well be the case that the days of "to the moon" are behind us.
In fact, I hope that's true: Slow, long term growth and stability will serve us much better if adoption is our goal. But the reason I'm most bullish is that those two possibilities (slow, long term growth or a bubble) seem much more likely right now than dropping down a few hundred bucks or a slow decline to obscurity.
The bear market is over. No longer is Bitcoin a toxic asset. We don't know how long the good times will last, but Bitcoin right now has opportunity before it that it hasn't had for awhile.
In other words: I'm cautiously optimistic.
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