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Topic: My take on the future of Bitcoin - page 2. (Read 3370 times)

sr. member
Activity: 500
Merit: 250
October 28, 2014, 04:14:56 AM
#5
Fuck Adam, scammer! When you send me my bitcoins?

User adpinbr scammer
hero member
Activity: 490
Merit: 500
October 23, 2014, 11:11:44 PM
#4
Maybe I should learn from you about my future plans
legendary
Activity: 1937
Merit: 1001
October 23, 2014, 10:43:49 PM
#3
"With this being said, as Apple Pay and CO. eat up the transactions market, price should drop."

Ow man i almost took you serious, until ApplePay... Gosh that was a good one man! Thanks for the abs workout.

In case it wasn't meant to be funny, we already have a lot of ApplePay and CO, it's still playing the old money game and doesn't innovate or change anything.
legendary
Activity: 2214
Merit: 3209
Flippin' burgers since 1163.
October 23, 2014, 04:34:36 PM
#2
Thanks for sharing the insights!

I invested in Bitcoin due to it BEING MONEY not due to it being a payment system.

That is every newbie's mistake, only knowing about bitcoin the currency and not about Bitcoin the payment network.

But even some main stream media is now getting that Bitcoin is actually a decentralized payment network, with LOTS of uninvented potential. I think when this snowball gets rolling, we get at least one more 'news bubble'. Hopefully this bubble will be supported by the currently build fundamentals, so it won't deflate that much.
sr. member
Activity: 787
Merit: 250
October 23, 2014, 03:54:44 PM
#1
I saw Bitcoin in late 2011 on Silk Road for the first time. I am not technical, but when I saw that there was a form of payment that could buy drugs online I was fascinated. After reading up on Bitcoin, and realizing its very strong/superior "properties of money", I knew that it would blow up when people heard about it. I invested in Bitcoin due to it BEING MONEY not due to it being a payment system.

NEWS BUBBLE (ALREADY HAPPENED)
Basically, if you invested in 2011-2012 you were betting that WHEN people find out about Bitcoin the price will go up.
Bulls where taking advantage of a market inefficiency, that they had INFORMATION THAT OTHERS DID NOT. ie you knew about Bitcoin.
The April and November bubbles were the result of people hearing about bitcoin, which is why there was such a strong correlation between news and price.

FUNDAMENTALS BUBBLE
Will be the result of Bitcoin fulfilling its promise as a payment system.
This process could take years(think 2017), if ever, and IMHO the risk-reward proposition is not as good as the bet I made in 2012.

CRISIS BUBBLE
Will occur when Bitcoin fulfills its promise as an asset/currency. This should happen when some sort of financial crash happens, the more developed Bitcoin is when this happens the better. The more legitimacy and liquidity Bitcoin has the higher the price will rise. If people think it may actually replace/compete as a reserve currency, we may see some really astronomical prices (10-100K). Being able to spend it at your local supermarket when crisis strikes is another reason to liquidate your stocks rather than your coins to put food on the table.

REASONS TO BE BEARISH

1) There is a lot of talk/bullishness on these forums about Bitcoin being a superior payment system. However I never thought Bitcoin would be a successful payment system, I felt that the blockchain had to merely be "good enough" to allow transactions without a counter-party to allow bitcoin to be the "honeybadger of money". I view a future where most transactions are done off chain. However the ability to do transactions and smart contracts on-chain, will force centralized, more efficeint, competitors to maintain a certain standard.
With this being said, as Apple Pay and CO. eat up the transactions market, price should drop.

2) The market has adapted to the news=price model. Which is why a lot of people are confused that all the "good news" has not resulted in upwards price movement. As these individuals realize that the correlation has subsided they will liquidate their holdings and invest their funds elsewhere, as they are short term thinkers.

REASONS TO BE BULLISH

1) High probability of ETF/increased liquidity. Just as people made money from knowing about Bitcoin when others did not in 2011, people who went through the effort of opening an account with bitstamp will make money from having early access to take exposure with bitcoins while others are to lazy to open up an account and do it.

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