Mystery Chart Says to Buy Btc now and sell in ~115.2 Days

An amorous cow-herder

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Quote from: bitsterr on July 06, 2014, 09:26:35 PM

very curious on what this chart still say and how off it is now!? for fun of course

Basicly the author found a cyclical pattern in history.
It is however broken by now. The rally is overdue by nearly two months, we should be at 2K+ by now if the pattern were still in effect.

bitsterr

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very curious on what this chart still say and how off it is now!? for fun of course

bb113

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Quote from: wbaw on February 16, 2014, 07:33:34 PM

Surely there are enough predictions on this forum that a few will seem to be right just through random chance.

The Professor Pigskin of BTC?

Agreed, good predictions involve exact timeframes and/or values. Ones that get close may be worth investigating further, but mean nothing more.

wbaw

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Surely there are enough predictions on this forum that a few will seem to be right just through random chance.

The Professor Pigskin of BTC?

bb113

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Quote from: Kramerc on February 14, 2014, 04:14:07 AM

Quote from: bb113 on February 13, 2014, 11:49:20 PM

I just checked this and it looks like the pattern broke, theres been deviations in the past as well though.

Would you please care to elaborate?

The mystery indicator wasnt supposed to drop so low if the 7-8 month cycle was still on going. Another thing to keep in mind is it is based on gox only right now.

Quote from: 2dogs on February 14, 2014, 01:43:34 PM

Quote from: dedcoin on February 14, 2014, 04:29:07 AM

Quote from: bb113 on February 13, 2014, 11:49:20 PM

I just checked this and it looks like the pattern broke, theres been deviations in the past as well though.

Interesting to see that some of the previous buy points were positioned on a downtrend. Index ~160 and ~480

Is it showing a buy signal now?

When it is high it has indicated buy in the past. The way it is calculated doesn't make this need to be true. Right now it went high but then the price dropped alot, also it went low after the drops, so it almost seems reversed.

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on February 16, 2014, 03:37:00 AM

Some kind of decomposition using orthogonal cyclic functions ... Chebyshev polynomials? Bessel functions, Legendre Polynomials ... how would anyone know, it could be your own special brew.?

NB: Just a ridiculous question ask given the evidence posted. Ill-posed problem. Wink

It really isn't ridiculous. Extra info: I didn't come up with this indicator.

marcus_of_augustus

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Eadem mutata resurgo

Some kind of decomposition using orthogonal cyclic functions ... Chebyshev polynomials? Bessel functions, Legendre Polynomials ... how would anyone know, it could be your own special brew.?

NB: Just a ridiculous question ask given the evidence posted. Ill-posed problem. Wink

Voodah

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Quote from: bb113 on February 14, 2014, 01:00:57 AM

Quote from: Voodah on February 14, 2014, 12:31:47 AM

Is it really a deviation or could it possibly be acceleration?

How would you test that theory? other than waiting?

You're right of course. Nothing in the chart itself will confirm that (except time ofc). It's more of a gut feeling looking at the surrounding ecosystem and the expectations for the coming months.

Have you seen this re-interpretation of your chart btw?

https://www.tradingview.com/e/npxNXNsg/

In there, if you were to position yourself in the middle of the aftermath section of the first 2011 bubble, you could possibly draw the same conclusion and deviation idea, but time showed that it was only because there was still a lot of downside. That's another possibility to consider..

2dogs

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Quote from: dedcoin on February 14, 2014, 04:29:07 AM

Quote from: bb113 on February 13, 2014, 11:49:20 PM

I just checked this and it looks like the pattern broke, theres been deviations in the past as well though.

Interesting to see that some of the previous buy points were positioned on a downtrend. Index ~160 and ~480

Is it showing a buy signal now?

dedcoin

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Quote from: bb113 on February 13, 2014, 11:49:20 PM

I just checked this and it looks like the pattern broke, theres been deviations in the past as well though.

Interesting to see that some of the previous buy points were positioned on a downtrend. Index ~160 and ~480

Kramerc

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Quote from: bb113 on February 13, 2014, 11:49:20 PM

I just checked this and it looks like the pattern broke, theres been deviations in the past as well though.

Would you please care to elaborate?

bb113

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Quote from: Voodah on February 14, 2014, 12:31:47 AM

Is it really a deviation or could it possibly be acceleration?

How would you test that theory? other than waiting?

Voodah

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Is it really a deviation or could it possibly be acceleration?

bb113

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Merit: 500

I just checked this and it looks like the pattern broke, theres been deviations in the past as well though.

kellrobinson

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Quote from: pbody on December 17, 2013, 01:12:08 AM

well, if its right, its going to drop down to about 550, then go up, back down again in about 3 weeks, and then hover around 800 till what looks like the next run in 45 days+

who knows. kinda creepy though.

You arrived at that extrapolation just from studying the chart, apparently. I'm having trouble gleaning enough information. What do you see?

zimmah

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Quote from: dedcoin on January 21, 2014, 07:28:11 PM

ok, got it. Grin

got what? i still don't get it

dedcoin

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ok, got it. Grin

dedcoin

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Ok, then I guess I am not reading the graph properly. At first, I though P was the future price prediction, and that we were at time point 1000 (which is obviously not the case).

aminorex

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Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: dedcoin on January 21, 2014, 06:14:51 PM

According to the dates of the posts:
1) 23rd august: May sell of already happen.
2) 23rd december (updated version of the graph was posted) : the 18th december selloff already happen.

The highs and lows of x correspond to highs and lows of p. The periodicities of x are obvious. The periodicities of p less so, until you see x.

dedcoin

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Quote from: sgbett on January 21, 2014, 06:04:17 PM

Quote from: dedcoin on January 21, 2014, 05:47:55 PM

I don't see how this chart is predicting future prices. These are simply historical data. Or am I missing something?

It already predicted, with frighteningly good accuracy, some 10 weeks before the selloff. Thats what you missed.

do we agree that may is at the 1000 mark and december 18th at about ~1250 ?

dedcoin

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According to the dates of the posts:
1) 23rd august: May sell of already happen.
2) 23rd december (updated version of the graph was posted) : the 18th december selloff already happen.

Topic: Mystery Chart Says to Buy Btc now and sell in ~115.2 Days (Read 16244 times)