We are in this for the long term and looking at the roadmap and stuff under development for NEM, I am going to be spending my time looking at my code and not at the market cap. I am not even going to worry about the price of NEM for at least the first 6 months and I hope that others will keep a clear head and a long term view as well.
Short term value doesn't bother me for precisely the reasons you've stated. Short term, it's going to see values comparable to most of the other currencies out there - pretty darn low, way lower than what it's truely worth. NEM's true value won't be realized until we see people trading services and goods for it, and new tech surrounding it. As you said - it's at this stage NEM is most vulnerable from whales, of whome can buy it up and toy with it as they wish.
Marketing is also a driving factor. When you think about it Bitcoin was marketed brilliantly - in fact, so good, it's what gave it the success it has today. It convinced people that they could turn over profit simply running their PC's, and most people own one these days. NEM needs a similar drive in order to see wider adoption from the masses. It's important NEM gets distributed as widely and quickly as possible.
This is why i think a NEM mobile app is essential. You can effectively do what Bitcoin did but emphasizing on low-power needed, all on devices everyone owns - mobiles. Far more common than your desktop PC.
Bitcoins model is now outdated, and a select minority control a sum of the hashing power of which undermines it's initial appeal, pushing out the little man and further centralizing distribution.
I like your thought process with only one caveat - Bitcoin had the entire crowd behind it because it was the first. We've got a long journey ahead. Seems very much in sync though. :-)