Topic: Network hashrate to triple in the next 45 days? How?? - page 3. (Read 4560 times)

I know the KnC Neptune will be shipping in Q2 2014 and that will add to the inevitable large spike in the coming months.  What units

are they shipping right now?  The Jupiter?  That's 550GH/s so they would need to ship about 40,000 of those units in the next couple

of months to increase the difficulty at the current average rate.


Definitely will post it here as soon as I see it...

It looks like the average net hashrate over the last 100 blocks (block 277495-277595) was ~9.9PH/s which is only an increase of 4.5%

from the net hashrate of the last jump (9.5PH/s @ block 276192)

However, after a little more research it looks like the net hash rate has recently been over 30-50PH/s at various block which is a bit unnerving... maybe these are calculation errors or something?  How can the hashrate fluctuate as much as 500% within a few blocks?

All of my data is from here:  http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash/2016

If the average net hashrate data is correct, then I would be shocked if the next difficulty jump is not under 15%

Edit:  Okay, I went back 2000 blocks to get a better picture, and also realized I was looking at this wrong... the net hash rate is just a calculation that I was getting from blockexplorer.com so I decided to look at the time of the blocks solved and the past 2000 blocks have been solved at an average of 494.25 seconds each or on target to solve 2016 blocks in 11.53 days.

This is 17.6% below the target time of 10 minutes per block, so the difficulty should adjust ~18% correct?

Good tally. There is the 10 days of "pre-testing" (aka poaching of other peoples' pre-orders) by all the manufacturers who are shipping in Feb-March, mining is becoming more and more centralized, so there are probably big data centers doing private orders and receiving private shipments.  KnC continues to ship hard and fast.

But let's see what the diff increase is today. Will you publish it here if you're watching it?

Next difficulty change:  Block #278208
Next difficulty projection:   1,393,489,370 @ 11:30PM CDT 1/1/2014 (+18%)
Actual difficulty after change: 1,418,481,395 @ 11:58PM CDT 1/1/2014 (+20%)

So I was off by ~24M, or 2%...

Based on my calculations, between 6/29/2013 and 12/21/2013 there were 16 difficulty jumps, averaging an increase of 28.75% in difficulty and a 29.12% increase in hashrate with each jump.

The current network hashrate is ~9.7 PH/s and if these increases continue at this pace then by February 14th, 2014 there will need to be a network hashrate of ~34.2 PH/s, an increase of over 250%.

So how big is an increase of 25 PH/s?  Well it depends a lot on how many ASICs are going to deliver in the next month.

ASIC Miner obviously is good on delivering their products, but they would need to release a ton of Cubes (657,895 to be exact) to make that type of dent in the hashrate.  CoinTerra looks promising but they haven't actually shipped a unit yet and don't plan to until March/April 2014.  Neither has HashFast, and they appear to be more of a concern of non-delivery judging from some of the posts that I have seen.

I can see the hashrate skyrocketing once the multi-TH/s units are actually being delivered, but as of now it looks to me like the difficulty is going to grow much more slowly than we have been seeing and maybe the 14% increases we saw in November will be similar for the next month or two.   We should know today or tomorrow, but I am guessing the next increase will only be ~15% and the following one should be even less than that.  Until the next generation of ASICs are actually plugged in and mining, I can't see these large increases sustaining.  I'd love to see a decrease in difficulty, but I am not sure that will ever happen again.  Until then I think we will all get to enjoy a good start to 2014 with small increases for at least the first two months.   There simply isn't enough power coming out in the next couple of months to increase the hashrate at the rates we have seen in the past 6 months.

So, yeah, tell me why I am wrong