Topic: Neven's Law: Only a Decade Before Quantum Computers Hack Bitcoin? (Read 287 times)

The discussion keeps appearing because the media keeps pushing the issue, trying to make it seem as if bitcoin is about to become obsolete by those computers and try to push people to keep their fiat and avoid bitcoin, however we know the truth which is why it is so easy for us to disarm those arguments, if anything this is similar to those fatalist predictions that we hear all the time and that at the end are resolved simply by improvements in our current technology, one example of this is peak oil, the world according to that theory should have run out of oil already, but thanks to new technologies we can find more oil while we reduce our usage, and a similar thing is happening here.

Developers are the ones who are very familiar with the speed at which technology is in progress. And I guess they know very well that the possibilities are unlimited so they must have known beforehand that quantum computers are very possible. And knowing this, they must have also started to explore options and security measures so that quantum computers won't destroy useful technologies such as Bitcoin. Actually as early as years ago, quantum computers have already been discussed and assurances were given that they couldn't actually make Bitcoin worthless.

Well, it isn't really "out of nowhere" since it's a legitimate concern. Although, it's highly mitigated for the reasons that you've specified above. By the time it becomes realistic to break Bitcoin, there would have already likely been alterations to Bitcoin to combat it.

The reason it keeps popping up every so often is because it's probably one of the only legitimate threats to Bitcoin. There are other threats obviously, however we likely have even more convincing solutions to them. Although, this, and the government globally banning Bitcoin is probably one of the more realistic threats to Bitcoin, and therefore it's natural for it to keep being brought up.

Earlier on this forum, some argued that quantum computers will not be created, and if they are created, they will never reach the power to crack the security codes of cryptocurrencies. A little time passed and quantum computers became a reality, and experts expect ten years to achieve such power, and even then this is in the worst case. We cannot wait for this time to expire, for then it will be too late to defend ourselves. It must also be taken into account that technological progress does not stand still and ways can be found that will significantly accelerate the growth in the power of these computers. It is better to play it safe than to lose this market later.

Yes, I know this has been discussed, and I've actually participated in some of those threads, but it's important for the community to be aware of all possible vulnerabilities to make the protocol stronger. Usually, when I make these types of posts, there is an academic making assertions in a prominent publication. At the very least, some people may learn more about bitcoin in a discussion of potential vulnerabilities. There is no point in completely ignoring the quantum computer vulnerabilities.

For some reason,the "quantum computers will destroy Bitcoin" discussion keeps appearing out of nowhere again and again.
OP,haven't you read the previous forum threads about quantum computers and Bitcoin?
I don't think that you are adding anything new to the discussion with your forum thread.
You are just repeating the same old stuff.
By the time quantum computers become a thing,Bitcoin will be:
1."Quantum resistant".
2.Replaced by a better cryptocurrency(if this is really possible).
Why bother about quantum computers?Don't worry about the future and enjoy Bitcoin while you still can.

So you think even at a high difficulty they would find blocks quickly? Would it not just be reorganization and then blocking of those IPs to prevent them from every going into the network again? Or as I said,,, is this not even the risk but rather that quantum computers simply break private keys? I still do not think that is ever likely to happen, and it is in a few years time anyway.

I still feel like I do not understand this problem correctly.

Then let us wait for that 10 years and see whether there will indeed be a first successful hack on Bitcoin. But not only had this issue already been responded to by developers, if at least a decade is needed for that hack attempt to possibly go successful, then that decade could probably be more than enough time for Bitcoin developers to somehow improve network and implement upgrades to resist what quantum computers could be possibly do.

The reorganization needs to be faster though as quantum computers are really fast, and what I mean by fast is that it can do billions of years worth of calculation in a matter of seconds, at least that's the idea behind it. I think there are a few that's already performing at those speed. We don't have to worry too much about it though, quantum computers wouldn't be used for that purposes unless a rogue state like North Korea has it, there's tons of research and development that quantum computing opens and I don't think that it's worth that much to use it on that.

Correct, if quantum computers which could break the current methods of encryption were developed and no one had the foresight to implement algorithms to resit them then we will have way bigger problems than bitcoin being broken, like people having access to secret files or even nuclear weapons, but the worries of those people will never materialize, even if it only took a decade for quantum computers to be fast enough to do this, that is more than enough time to update bitcoin and everything else so they are not vulnerable to quantum computers.

The problem is that Quantum Computers can't be used to make development on the existing Bitcoin blockchain and protocols, it's true that we can easily move towards another cryptocurrency that demands Proof of work even higher than SHA256, which means even the computing power of the supercomputers could be put to test, but then you obviously won't be able to achieve this using existing bitcoin, either we'll have to hard fork into a new cryptocurrency or pick a new cryptocurrency for ourself altogether. But to me, this looks really difficult for at least the next 20 years to come. Currently, the estimate is that it can take something around 0.65 Billion years for a 16 word private key to be cracked, I don't expect this number to come down to a few hundred years in atleast the next 20 years.

We all know that these theoretical situations and what if's will happen, and it has been discussed over and over again. The question is when, not what, and that's what most of the experts in the said field can answer. Sure, some quantum computers are already being developed, although not at a rate in which people should be worried. Then again, they are already present, and only need some more R&D before they can do something substantial. Plus, most of these quantum computers are going to end in the hands of scientists and research organizations, and not some rich guy wanting to make money off of crypto.

Also, don't be too complacent. Quantum computers have already appeared and their computational power is growing. This means that after some time, the threat to the security of the crypto-currency will become real. Techniques and technologies are developing and no one can give any guarantee that something will be invented that can lead to a sharp increase in their power. Therefore, it is necessary to think and take measures against such a threat in advance.
Even if high-powered quantum computers are scarce at first, I'm sure they will be used to break into wallets with large sums of money. The temptation is too great, and the contents of the wallets are visible for all to see.

Just because lots of people are uneducated about Bitcoin and unreasonably hate it because they've read uninformed headlines about Bitcoin and crypto. It's the same reason people want Bitcoin banned or think it is bad because of its mining. They focus their negative attention on the thing they don't like (due to not understanding it) and ignore the implications on everything else.

i.e. people don't say data centers should be banned for using lots of energy, because those data centers run websites and apps, which they already understand and use, but no-coiners don't use bitcoin and they don't yet understand it so they think Bitcoin's use of energy is bad. No-coiners don't focus on the fact that quantum computing would break the encryption of every digital service they rely on because they already use that stuff, but they don't yet use Bitcoin so they just talk about the negative of how they think quantum computing will destroy the thing they don't use and don't like because their narrative is about attacking the thing they don't understand.

I'm no expert, but a decade seems a bit aggressive of a prediction. Quantum computing is still in its infancy. It's not just about finding more ways to add qubits to get to the required complexity, but there are serious fundamental problems with quantum computing that need to be solved. Solving these still could be numerous years away, so it's not a straightforward shot of improving techniques like adding transistors to a traditional chip.

And from what I understand the only Bitcoin that would be endangered would be bitcoin that is still held in the original address type, of which there are like two million left, so half of that is Satoshi's - though this does make me think before quantum attacks happen Bitcoin needs to essentially blacklist that address type otherwise those coins that don't get moved are guaranteed to be stolen, philosophically i don't agree with this but it's either do this or 1-2 million bitcoin gets stolen. And for all other address types anyone who re-uses addresses could be attacked with quantum computers, so avoiding quantum attacks really just involves using best practices when making transactions. These are the two things that we need to worry about in the 2030's probably.

From what I understand, with far superior quantum computers from what could be used to do what i described in the last paragraph - so now we're talking probably during the second half of this century - it is possible that they could become so fast that they could crack a sending address' private key within the block transaction time and therefore try to override the initial transaction and send the bitcoin to the attacker. This would require quantum computers orders of magnitude more powerful than just what is required to hack things as described above. And what would be needed to mitigate against this would be new quantum resistant tech in Bitcoin and all addresses move over from current address types to those new ones. But again this probably isn't needed for several decades.

So the only thing that needs to be considered in the next 10 years or so would be getting people to move all Satoshi-era coins to newer address types and what to do with all the coins that are lost from that era - either let them get stolen eventually or I guess hard fork that address type out of the protocol, neither of these is ideal but a one time hard fork would be the better option I think.

Anyway i only have a layman's understanding of the technical details of bitcoin and quantum computing but this is what I have gathered from stuff I've read.

I wonder why everyone is so focused on Bitcoin and Quantum Computing. This topic has been discussed so many times before. If the encryption used by Bitcoin can be broken, then many other things can be broken, such as online banking, secret correspondence, etc. because the world is built on this encryption. Then Bitcoin would not only have a problem but the whole digital world.
In addition, there are already many scientific studies of algorithms that are quantum safe. These would simply have to be implemented and the issue would be settled.

If I had a dollar for every time someone was saying quantum computers were coming for your bitcoin I would have a lot of dollars.
If quantum computers can come in and hack bitcoin encryption. Then every other form of weaker encryption out there is also broken.
BTC is going to be the least of out problems. When banks, governments and everyone else running older applications / devices wake up and find out they have no security since it's been broken.

-Dave

If quantum computers come close,,, and assuming the country or organization that has it is willing to spend all that money just to hack Bitcoin, then they finally succeed. What happens?

Bitcoin reorganizes and then work together to ignore or invalidate all the IP associated with the quantum computer, right? This is my understanding or is it simply the risk that it breaks open people's wallets?

Bitcoin is being upgraded all the time. Why do you think that we would not see this coming and do something against it? Nobody is going to invent real quantum computers capable of doing an amazing feat such as that within a single day.

I see absolutely no reason to start worrying yet. Unless aliens land on our planet and give us amazing, mind boggling technology that would turn our world upside down, no, there will be no "surprises".

Seems logical. But the thing is that ut us not as easy as breathing to acquire such high technologies. Amd so, we can only expect that such technology will only be available for the government or the richest people if they can manage to hide or get away with it. But by the time this happens tho, I think that bitcoin has already improved even more and has solved more problems it already has and some that may come.