the only thing that can cause a crash in mining is a crash in bitcoins themselves, a pair trade betweek KWh/$ and Mhash/$ will exist from this point forth, enough participants for the market to be efficient now.
If mining becomes widespread, miners with bitcoins will probably start transacting amongst themselves, so it will be good for adoption in general. It will be easier to just buy stuff with bitcoins than going thru the nightmare of mt. gox.
Topic: New Difficulty Calculation - page 2. (Read 3876 times)
generally speaking the idea of making money running a free program on a computer is a pretty sexy concept compared to a hard to understand and very illiquid cryptocurrency.
Capacity is going to increase no matter what anyone says or does on this forum because there's always some new person who can click install on guiminer and run it for free in a computer lab somewhere
I wonder what % of people here have ever even used a bitcoin to transact anything.... I tried and it results in arguments over what a bitcoin is worth, referring to rapidly fluctuating prices on illiquid scammy markets, and basically end up asking for cash instead.
What shop operating at 10-20% typical retail margins is going to spend all day constantly updating/checking bitcoin prices when selling an item they just bought from a distributor at a hard fixed cost?
Capacity is going to increase no matter what anyone says or does on this forum because there's always some new person who can click install on guiminer and run it for free in a computer lab somewhere
I wonder what % of people here have ever even used a bitcoin to transact anything.... I tried and it results in arguments over what a bitcoin is worth, referring to rapidly fluctuating prices on illiquid scammy markets, and basically end up asking for cash instead.
What shop operating at 10-20% typical retail margins is going to spend all day constantly updating/checking bitcoin prices when selling an item they just bought from a distributor at a hard fixed cost?
well, you could solve this with some effort in programming. you could check the price via a feed and let your website calculate the current value in btc of your goods. maybe they'll even go as far as automatically selling the bitcoins after each transaction. that would not be too much time spent.
generally speaking the idea of making money running a free program on a computer is a pretty sexy concept compared to a hard to understand and very illiquid cryptocurrency.
Capacity is going to increase no matter what anyone says or does on this forum because there's always some new person who can click install on guiminer and run it for free in a computer lab somewhere
Capacity is going to increase no matter what anyone says or does on this forum because there's always some new person who can click install on guiminer and run it for free in a computer lab somewhere
Agreed. People is going to keep adding capacity until there is a big crash in mining.
what? no, this sounds wrong. of course it's going to increase (although i think the rate at which it increases will get lower, as it already has), but there's not gonna be a big crash in mining, i think. it's going to slowly reach the point at which it is no longer profitable for the casual miner (1-3 rigs at home, 15c/kwh etc), but this would not cause a crash (your statement sounds as if the difficulty would adjust dramatically at one point in time).
generally speaking the idea of making money running a free program on a computer is a pretty sexy concept compared to a hard to understand and very illiquid cryptocurrency.
Capacity is going to increase no matter what anyone says or does on this forum because there's always some new person who can click install on guiminer and run it for free in a computer lab somewhere
Capacity is going to increase no matter what anyone says or does on this forum because there's always some new person who can click install on guiminer and run it for free in a computer lab somewhere
Agreed. People is going to keep adding capacity until there is a big crash in mining.
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I wonder what % of people here have ever even used a bitcoin to transact anything.... I tried and it results in arguments over what a bitcoin is worth, referring to rapidly fluctuating prices on illiquid scammy markets, and basically end up asking for cash instead.
I have. Never have been scammed in bitcoins. I have been scammed in pounds and in euros.
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What shop operating at 10-20% typical retail margins is going to spend all day constantly updating/checking bitcoin prices when selling an item they just bought from a distributor at a hard fixed cost?
This is not an issue. The websites actualize prices automatically. Its really only a couple of lines of php.
generally speaking the idea of making money running a free program on a computer is a pretty sexy concept compared to a hard to understand and very illiquid cryptocurrency.
Capacity is going to increase no matter what anyone says or does on this forum because there's always some new person who can click install on guiminer and run it for free in a computer lab somewhere
I wonder what % of people here have ever even used a bitcoin to transact anything.... I tried and it results in arguments over what a bitcoin is worth, referring to rapidly fluctuating prices on illiquid scammy markets, and basically end up asking for cash instead.
What shop operating at 10-20% typical retail margins is going to spend all day constantly updating/checking bitcoin prices when selling an item they just bought from a distributor at a hard fixed cost?
Capacity is going to increase no matter what anyone says or does on this forum because there's always some new person who can click install on guiminer and run it for free in a computer lab somewhere
I wonder what % of people here have ever even used a bitcoin to transact anything.... I tried and it results in arguments over what a bitcoin is worth, referring to rapidly fluctuating prices on illiquid scammy markets, and basically end up asking for cash instead.
What shop operating at 10-20% typical retail margins is going to spend all day constantly updating/checking bitcoin prices when selling an item they just bought from a distributor at a hard fixed cost?
let me quote myself, as i've just made a post about difficulty increase
even with the current attention in the media, i think mining will decline (as in, grow slower) over time. of course peaks like a huge article in some major newspaper can happen, but i doubt it would increase the network speed too much. hopefully the media won't make people think it's still profitable to mine, because i think that hype is over. yes, you can still get even, but the risk of the price falling (see mtgox yesterday) is still present. it plays so much of a bigger role when you compare a say 500% profit with getting even. what we all know is we are going to the point where an invested kwh yields just a little bit more than what the big guys pay for their electricity, which is ~6-10c.
i've done a simulation in which the average total hashrate increase rate is -4% (2nd derivation). looks awesome to me and more reasonable. maybe it actually is a good idea to keep on building rigs. i mean, you can't expect the network speed to increase at this rate for much longer. first reason, it's exponential. that means more and more investments would have to be made. but i doubt people will invest more _now_ than let's say a week ago. the average "gamer" won't buy an additional AMD card anymore just to increase his hashrate. maybe he won't mine at all (nvidia?), because the profit is not as obvious as it was in the past few weeks. there's still reasonable hope for investments to pay for themselves. i am actually thinking about getting a second card. would be so awesome to let it pay for itself and use it for gaming in a few months. crossfire :3
even with the current attention in the media, i think mining will decline (as in, grow slower) over time. of course peaks like a huge article in some major newspaper can happen, but i doubt it would increase the network speed too much. hopefully the media won't make people think it's still profitable to mine, because i think that hype is over. yes, you can still get even, but the risk of the price falling (see mtgox yesterday) is still present. it plays so much of a bigger role when you compare a say 500% profit with getting even. what we all know is we are going to the point where an invested kwh yields just a little bit more than what the big guys pay for their electricity, which is ~6-10c.
This is exactly my fear. The panic happened in the previous "cycle" and now people have learned that if they hold and let others stop it will be fine, like your post shows. So everybody is expecting the same result as previous cycles, so everybody keeps adding more capacity...
This is only one reason on why it could go in a different way as in the past. Previous gains dont guarantee future gains.
let me quote myself, as i've just made a post about difficulty increase
even with the current attention in the media, i think mining will decline (as in, grow slower) over time. of course peaks like a huge article in some major newspaper can happen, but i doubt it would increase the network speed too much. hopefully the media won't make people think it's still profitable to mine, because i think that hype is over. yes, you can still get even, but the risk of the price falling (see mtgox yesterday) is still present. it plays so much of a bigger role when you compare a say 500% profit with getting even. what we all know is we are going to the point where an invested kwh yields just a little bit more than what the big guys pay for their electricity, which is ~6-10c.
i've done a simulation in which the average total hashrate increase rate is -4% (2nd derivation). looks awesome to me and more reasonable. maybe it actually is a good idea to keep on building rigs. i mean, you can't expect the network speed to increase at this rate for much longer. first reason, it's exponential. that means more and more investments would have to be made. but i doubt people will invest more _now_ than let's say a week ago. the average "gamer" won't buy an additional AMD card anymore just to increase his hashrate. maybe he won't mine at all (nvidia?), because the profit is not as obvious as it was in the past few weeks. there's still reasonable hope for investments to pay for themselves. i am actually thinking about getting a second card. would be so awesome to let it pay for itself and use it for gaming in a few months. crossfire :3
even with the current attention in the media, i think mining will decline (as in, grow slower) over time. of course peaks like a huge article in some major newspaper can happen, but i doubt it would increase the network speed too much. hopefully the media won't make people think it's still profitable to mine, because i think that hype is over. yes, you can still get even, but the risk of the price falling (see mtgox yesterday) is still present. it plays so much of a bigger role when you compare a say 500% profit with getting even. what we all know is we are going to the point where an invested kwh yields just a little bit more than what the big guys pay for their electricity, which is ~6-10c.
Looks like we miners are in for a serious difficulty adjustment, despite all the panic that's been going on this week. It seems that with all the negative press regarding theft of bitcoins they've suddenly become that much more popular.
Calculations point to the next difficulty increase putting us over 1.4 million. That's an increase of 60% - wow. Now here's to hoping prices follow suit.
Calculations point to the next difficulty increase putting us over 1.4 million. That's an increase of 60% - wow. Now here's to hoping prices follow suit.
I think that its way more probable that difficulty stops going up so quick than the price going up.
The last events (for lack of better name) are not going to do good to the Bitcoin economy. Also, the rise in price atracted people that were interested just in earning money by mining and not in developing the Bitcoin economy, therefore this people want to cash out and wont let the price of bitcoins in dollars rise too much. Passing through this will take time and a lot of demand. Long term bitcoin is bullish, but short term not so much.
Right now we are in a critical moment for mining.
Looks like we miners are in for a serious difficulty adjustment, despite all the panic that's been going on this week. It seems that with all the negative press regarding theft of bitcoins they've suddenly become that much more popular.
Calculations point to the next difficulty increase putting us over 1.4 million. That's an increase of 60% - wow. Now here's to hoping prices follow suit.
Calculations point to the next difficulty increase putting us over 1.4 million. That's an increase of 60% - wow. Now here's to hoping prices follow suit.
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