Topic: New opinion of PlanB - page 2. (Read 549 times)

It was clear that the ETF was a sell the news event. If you look at the return on investment for BTC and all bitcoin proxies in 2023, you would see that the ETF hype has been frontrun for months, resulting in a bubble that will at least burst forming a local top. 30k is not out of the table, even 25k in some panic wick. Once euphoria cools down then you can start thinking about the real bull run where FOMO will kick in and you will see Bitcoin on TV every day again. This time it will not be a quick sell off on mainstream arrival, it will hang very high for a long time, until a recession or something else kicks in and panic ensues again. Always keep a bag of cash because you never know how high BTC can go but definitely how low as well.

The BTC Scale Law model (or power law model) is the true BTC price model that has been right for 15 years. It predicts a top of the cycle of 2x the nominal value of $125,000 (trendline value). So in a bullish scenario, we have $250,000. Actually, Plan B is cheating a bit and readjusting the parameters of his model to give $500,000, if he kept the same parameters in his original article the next top will be $1000,000. The Power Law model is more conservative and it accounts for the tapering off of the price with time.

Although his prediction of $100K in 2021 was not completely accurate, at least bitcoin reached $69K. That means if his prediction is $500k for the upcoming bull season then bitcoin could also reach $300k or more according to his model.

To be fair, when we think about the $500k goal, it's actually a very large and unlikely goal, but the future is something no one can predict. It may or may not happen, and I don't think we should jump to conclusions and be certain about it. Personally, I still believe that the upcoming bull season will be the biggest bull super cycle ever.

I don't give any credit to PlanB, he's model already failed several times and, despite the fact that I'm pretty bullish on bitcoin, especially for the next years, I really don't see how we could reach $500k in a few years, it's just too much. Anyway, if you think this is the right moment to sell bitcoin just do it. If I were you, I wouldn't, but if a tweet is enough for you to make sell then I guess it's ok.

Having knowledge about Bitcoin is an absolute requirement, so that we can know the characteristics of market movements, so that it is more convenient to know when is the right time to buy and sell it. it will be even easier to invest long term, of course we only need to buy bitcoin, especially now, which still has a big opportunity to increase, so we just have to save it until one day we can sell it with a double profit. Of course it seems easy to imagine, but after doing it we will understand the difficulties experienced

I spent a lot of time thinking why @100trillionUSD S2F model shows a power law relationship between S2F, as he defines it, and the market cap of BTC.
The graph he showed in his first Medium article is pretty convincing and there is a clear power law evident by simple inspection.

At the same time, his model doesn't seem to work well after the last bull market and it seems to deviate even more from the real price. What is going on?

I think when he plotted initially his chart of log10(market value) vs log10(S2F) he accidentally "rediscovered" the time power law.

S2F is not really driving the price of BTC, at least not in the mathematical formulation he envisioned. There is something more fundamental that drives the price consistently because the power law in time relationship is more granular and follows very closely the price during bear markets for example.  The underlying mechanism is related to scarcity but not exactly (maybe other factors have an additional role).

The reason why I think @100trillionUSD merely rediscovered the power law in time law is that one can approximate the S2F behavior with an exponential of time and if one rewrites this exponential as a Taylor expansion the leading power is the power of 2 up to recent times (higher powers start to be more dominant now explaining the deviation from the real data). If you only keep power up to 2 for a mathematical expression of S2F then we can see how @100trillionUSD formula price=A*S2F^3.2 can be rewritten as price=A*(a*t+b*t^2)^3.2 or price~C*t^6.4 that is very similar to the power law price~D*t^5.8.

So he didn't discover a new interesting relationship between price and S2F but his log-log chart revealed indirectly the power law in time (that was already discovered by me a few years before).

@100trillionUSD contribution is still great because he wanted to find a causal mechanism for BTC scaling properties and he focused on a quantity that seemed to make sense but it turns out that the price doesn't respond to S2F exactly as he predicted.

That is fine and he should not have all the hard time he got because this is how you do science anyway, you make a hypothesis and test it. His hypothesis seems in trouble right now and we will see how it plays in the next cycle but I think we have already signs his model deviates from the real price.

The power law in time still holds very well and there is no indication the model is becoming less precise, on the contrary, it is becoming more stable and statistically significant. For BTC holders what is scarce is time not owning BTC, time is running out every day for non-coiners and this reflects directly on the price.

The price of BTC is absolutely predictable

I made predictions since several years ago about the long-term trajectory of BTC and they turned out to be perfectly true. See here for example (5 years old post):
Here is what I wrote 5 years ago:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/9cqi0k/bitcoin_power_law_over_10_year_period_all_the_way/

Here is the updated model, basically the same identical model, so I can predict BTC price over the long term almost perfectly. The model catches all the bottoms and tells us when we are close to the tops.  

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/18z04kp/15_years_of_btc_power_law/


The BTC Scaling Law model, which is 100x better than S2F model, and for some reason not well known, tells us that if the peak of the cycle is 2 years from now (middle of the cycle) the nominal value of BTC is $125,000 dollars.

The model is great in determining the bottoms but not perfect with the tops. But historically the tops are about 2x the nominal value at that time so we have about $250,000.
We have observed a diminishing return for the tops (also predictable) but it is only 3 data points so it may not be significant. Also, the ETF could push the price higher than $250,000.
So let me make a prediction and you can hold me to it:

Prediction based on the BTC Scaling Law:

Top of the 2024-2028 cycle in a range between $150,000 to $250,000.

If I'm wrong and it goes above $250,000 I will be happy anyway (the model still tells us it would be overbought so sell if you want to cash in and buy at the bottom again).

We will keep hearing contrary opinions about bitcoin, as long as we have not approached the halving, everyone will keep saying what they think straight up without having a second thoughts on them, well, it's high time we believe more about bitcoin now, even if we keep having more dips than we expected to see the market running bullish, Bitcoin is having no best time than now, if the interest is there and there's opportunity for an investment, we should do it without looking back before we get a new all time high.

It looks impossible we will see $500K in the next year, I won't put a big expectation. I'm expecting $100K we be achieved in the next year, hopefully $200K if ETFs do give a lot impact for people to not fear invest in Bitcoin.

We shouldn't forget PlanB was incorrect predicting the last ATH will hit $100K when the reality it only reached $69K.

Basically, predictions cannot be guaranteed to be correct or not when or looking at the accuracy of each prediction has things that cannot be calculated by logic, so someone will consider things that are wildly logical to be considered impossible, as is the case with bitcoin when the price you mentioned, even people who exchange bitcoin for two pizza loya do not have the thought that bitcoin will be this wide in scope.

I myself think the price to $250k is very heavy, but after seeing that bitcoin ETFs that are in big financial markets and can say that they will introduce bitcoin to a wider public it is likely that it will be achieved, but yes we can today hope and think more realistically, at $532k I will definitely sell some, but we will see what is the highest price that bitcoin can touch in this cycle.

In this kind of scenario, you can only trust yourself because you are the one who will gonna be successful if your hunch based on your own research about the crypto market is true. You cannot rely on their opinion because most of those kinds of people are just talking without knowing anything about it. Some of them are just blind followers of those who are hostile to bitcoins and they don't have anything good to say whether about the predictions of the price or the good future of bitcoins. therefore, be yourself when it comes to your investment make it solely from your own decision, and build some patience in yourself in order to be successful in your long-term holding of bitcoins.

Huh, if they were so accurate in the past, maybe it's not too much to hope that they'll be right once again. To be honest, my expectations for the upcoming bull market are a lot milder because I believe that each bull market sees the price increasing by a smaller percentage (for example, nearly 20x between 2013 and 2017, but just over 3x for the next bull run). Something over $100k would be great, and $532k sounds way over the top. But yeah, who knows, maybe it can get that high, that fast. In any case, Bitcoin is still a good investment, even if it doesn't bring such impressive profits like it used to.

I think that we have discussed many times in various discussions that it is not too realistic to expect that the price of Bitcoin will increase after the next halvings, as it was in the past. The last 2020 halving "produced" only x3.5 compared to the one before it ($20 -> $69k) and we have to wonder if the next one could cause a price increase of x12 compared to the current value?

Some quite wrongly believe that past events regarding the price can just be repeated, but we cannot consider it the same as raising the price by x10 from $100 to $1000 or doing the same today.

https://i.ibb.co/C6n28k8/Model-Valuation-A1.png


It is not. The price of BTC follows a very precise pattern over the long run. It has done this for exactly 15 years since day one.
It is a power law that is an amazing thing because Power Laws are very important for natural and man-made phenomena:

https://www.ted.com/talks/geoffrey_west_the_surprising_math_of_cities_and_corporations

Not sure why every Bitcoiners doesn't know or understand this. PlanB main contribution was to indicate the halving events create periodic bubbles or oscillations around the very predictable BTC growth pattern. These bubbles are also predictable now and the size of the oscillations also follows precise patterns (the bottoms are more predictable than the tops but we can still identify areas when BTC is overbought or oversold).
See here:

https://medium.com/quantonomy/btc-scaling-law-model-has-been-right-for-the-last-15-years-real-price-and-model-comparison-5dee5bb495f6

Dude if Bitcoin goes to 532k then this forum will have more money than most startups and OGs and anyone from pre-2021 will basically be rich.

But even this seems outlandish to me, I mean come on, we're just going to skip $100k? Maybe 532k is achievable after 2028, but 2024 is way too soon for this kinda thing.

(Also expect Ordinals and other shit activities to increase hard if this happens)

PlanB model is wrong. The S2F algo predicts a 2x decrease in supply every 4 years (so an increase in S2F) and this leads to an exponential growth. This should look like a straight line in a log graph but the growth of BTC is curved in a convex fashion (downwards). There is a very precise law for the growth of BTC and it is what I call the BTC Scaling Law.

https://medium.com/quantonomy/btc-scaling-law-model-has-been-right-for-the-last-15-years-real-price-and-model-comparison-5dee5bb495f6

I'm one of those people, who think that a 500K Bitcoin price(or above) is impossible. If such price happens, that would be the biggest "tulip mania" financial bubble in the history of human civilization. Who the hell is going to invest trillions of dollars into buying a financial asset, that has slow transactions and high transaction fees? What's the biggest utility of Bitcoin? Buying at 40K so you could sell at 80K?
I think that a price between 70K and 100K is achievable in a short time frame, there's no way for such price to be sustained for more than 1 or 2 months.

The S2F model just became inaccurate last few years ago, for me it's normal, this model is speculation also. Always expect the unexpected, even famous S2F model is failing or becoming inaccurate means, it's extremely difficult to predict the future of Bitcoin.

Pretty sure that S2F was predicting above $100k BTC during the last cycle which of course didn't happen. It's just like those moon math charts - they eventually fail and get updated with new price history to extrapolate, and then fail again anyway.

I have my own theory that the price growth is slowing down from cycle to cycle because emission has less and less impact on the supply, so for having some huge price ranges like $500k there needs to be a surge in demand. Here people would start talking about being hedge against inflation, replacing fiat and so on, but Bitcoin failed to perfectly counter inflation and negative economic events, in fact it went down many times during those periods, because it's a high risk asset.

Yes, Bitcoin is dead blah blah blah on which this had been a never ending kind of saying on which people would really be just that simply keep telling on things just because they dont know on what the future looks like.
Where are those people who had been saying that Bitcoin is dead when it was still $400 or even on less? Its never been that something new that there would really be that those criticisms of those people who doesnt believe into its potential but later on then did become a solid believer just because Bitcoin did made up a huge slap into their face on the time that it did reached out those non expected all time highs.
Selling out on news? This is always been a known saying on which you would be selling when everyone is really that greedy.It is a common way on trying out to take advantage into these kind of moments.