Topic: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? - page 2. (Read 7374 times)
everything pops, but noone knows how high this one would run first. The 900 obviously was just a stop on the way up.
So, the new paradigm is real?! no more corrections from this point?
I forgot that the bubble in april lasted 2 months. I don't know why but it seemed it was really quick and also really really obvious.
I think because it was a pretty slow and gradual upwards momentum for the first few weeks until the very last day or two when it went parabolic and finally crashed. Whereas this time around, we`ve already seen it go parabolic and correct itself, and then back up again almost immediately.
Hm yeah. Seems to have begun after Silk Road so we're nearing 2 months into it.
Memories are short, it seems.
The first BTC bubble, in 2011, was two months from kick-off to peak.
The second BTC bubble, which should be so recent as to be fresh in your memories, was three months.
As for the present trend, it's only been six weeks since big upwards movement began. Why is it mystifying that we haven't gone from binge to hangover when the night is still young?
The first BTC bubble, in 2011, was two months from kick-off to peak.
The second BTC bubble, which should be so recent as to be fresh in your memories, was three months.
As for the present trend, it's only been six weeks since big upwards movement began. Why is it mystifying that we haven't gone from binge to hangover when the night is still young?
What's considered the 'kickoff' for these estimates?
Apr-Jun 2011
Jan-Apr 2013
Oct 2013-Today
Memories are short, it seems.
The first BTC bubble, in 2011, was two months from kick-off to peak.
The second BTC bubble, which should be so recent as to be fresh in your memories, was three months.
As for the present trend, it's only been six weeks since big upwards movement began. Why is it mystifying that we haven't gone from binge to hangover when the night is still young?
The first BTC bubble, in 2011, was two months from kick-off to peak.
The second BTC bubble, which should be so recent as to be fresh in your memories, was three months.
As for the present trend, it's only been six weeks since big upwards movement began. Why is it mystifying that we haven't gone from binge to hangover when the night is still young?
What's considered the 'kickoff' for these estimates?
Memories are short, it seems.
The first BTC bubble, in 2011, was two months from kick-off to peak.
The second BTC bubble, which should be so recent as to be fresh in your memories, lasted three months.
As for the present trend, it's only been six weeks since big upwards movement began. Why is it mystifying that we haven't gone from binge to hangover when the night is still young?
The first BTC bubble, in 2011, was two months from kick-off to peak.
The second BTC bubble, which should be so recent as to be fresh in your memories, lasted three months.
As for the present trend, it's only been six weeks since big upwards movement began. Why is it mystifying that we haven't gone from binge to hangover when the night is still young?
It's not "the bubble that doesn't pop". It's "the bubble that isn't over". This is a consolidation before the next leg up.
You can not pop the bubble. That is impossible. Instead, you must realize the truth.
What truth?
There is no bubble. Then you will see it is not the bubble that pops, it is yourself.
epic
It's not "the bubble that doesn't pop". It's "the bubble that isn't over". This is a consolidation before the next leg up.
You can not pop the bubble. That is impossible. Instead, you must realize the truth.
What truth?
There is no bubble. Then you will see it is not the bubble that pops, it is yourself.
It's not "the bubble that doesn't pop". It's "the bubble that isn't over". This is a consolidation before the next leg up.
Still going up, it's amazing. But I still don't understand it, can someone explain this behavior?
low volume, big drops, bearish depth chart, price keep going up / stay stable...
low volume, big drops, bearish depth chart, price keep going up / stay stable...
There are a lot of 15 years old children, who mined thousand of BTC 2 years ago. :-) Or they are mining LTC now and sell LTC for BTC (another noobs buy this ALT shit) ... and finally they sell BTC for USD to you.
Still going up, it's amazing. But I still don't understand it, can someone explain this behavior?
low volume, big drops, bearish depth chart, price keep going up / stay stable...
low volume, big drops, bearish depth chart, price keep going up / stay stable...
Penny stock. When Bitcoin will worth $100,000/btc then it will change.
What's to explain? Limited supply, rising demand, therefore rising price. Low volume also means low local availability of limited supplies, which pushes the price up more than if there was a high volume. The downside to low volume is higher volatility, but this problem will disappear over time as the available funds are spread over more hands.
Still going up, it's amazing. But I still don't understand it, can someone explain this behavior?
It doesn't really cost much to prop up the price a little after a dump. When dumping into a low slippage orderbook like that it would even be stupid not to.
Still going up, it's amazing. But I still don't understand it, can someone explain this behavior?
low volume, big drops, bearish depth chart, price keep going up / stay stable...
low volume, big drops, bearish depth chart, price keep going up / stay stable...
Actually, the more I read that in the context of this and other posts, the more I realise most of those points should really be highlighted.
Again though, correlation != causation.
Again though, correlation != causation.
From
http://www.solerinvestments.com/Online-Trading/Stock-Market-Crash.htm
Yes, I know there isn't really any credentials backing this up.
Yes, I know Bitcoin is not the stock market.
Yes, I know we should look to the past for answers to the present or future.
I'm adding this because it's interesting and others may find it's a useful contribution to the discussion.
http://www.solerinvestments.com/Online-Trading/Stock-Market-Crash.htm
Quote
Previous Bubbles have included:
The Japanese "Take Over the World" Bubble of the late 1980's
The Asian Currency Bubble of the mid 1990's
The Internet/High Tech Bubble of the late 1990's
The Residential Real Estate Bubble of 2000-2003
The coming Inflationary Bubble caused by the U.S. Government's attempt to mitigate the effects of the crash of these Bubbles and 9/11.
How Bubbles Grow: 12 Easy Steps
1. A believable concept offers a revolutionary and unlimited path to growth.
2. Surplus of funds and lack of opportunities lead to buying or investing in anything available.
3. An idea is complex and cannot be totally explained or related to an investor.
4. The crowd imitates the leader. All Aboard! Even the gardener has a tip!?
5. Prices fluctuate from traditional level to overvalued level, THEN to all new ground and all time highs.
6. New levels are sanctioned by experts. "We are in a new Paradigm!"
7. Fear of missing the boat takes over. Cloning of the idea occurs as many new overvalued competitors enter the market.
8. Lending practices are eased. Money flows like water to anything or anyone with a new idea.
9. Cult figures emerge for the new paradigm. The media promotes lifestyles, not substance.
10. The Bubble lasts longer than expected. Critics are dismissed. The last suckers are sucked in.
11. Fraud emerges as partly responsible for the bubble as the first cracks show in the bubble.
12. Finally, everyone has a reason why it cannot continue. But nobody dumps, and all hold onto their profits. No new buyers. Market stalls.
How a Bubble Bursts
1. A continued new supply of lower priced offerings occurs from rising prices. New IPO's get bigger and bigger
2. There is a rise in interest costs. The Government declares "Excessive Exuberance" and tightens credit too quickly.
3. Prices collapse and everyone heads for the exits at the same time. With no more buyers, prices hit free fall.
4. Fraud is uncovered in many diverse industries, and in monitoring and auditing agencies. This leads to more selling.
5. Governments intervene and give investors time to get out before the real decline.
Rules to Live By
1. Do not extrapolate the future from the present.
2. Trends continue for a long time (2-5 years) and then suddenly reverse chaotically. Witness the Tech Bubble.
3. Intermittent secondary corrections occur at Fibonacci Levels of 38%, 50% and 62% that result in classic Bull or Bear Traps.
4. Bottom picking begins several different times, trying to restart the Bubble, but to no avail. Massive losses occur to professionals trying to manipulate the markets.
5. Finally everyone recognizes that "Trends go further than you expect, and last longer than expected." Everyone gives up and sells.
6. As the volume of the decline decreases, a slow recovery begins.
The Japanese "Take Over the World" Bubble of the late 1980's
The Asian Currency Bubble of the mid 1990's
The Internet/High Tech Bubble of the late 1990's
The Residential Real Estate Bubble of 2000-2003
The coming Inflationary Bubble caused by the U.S. Government's attempt to mitigate the effects of the crash of these Bubbles and 9/11.
How Bubbles Grow: 12 Easy Steps
1. A believable concept offers a revolutionary and unlimited path to growth.
2. Surplus of funds and lack of opportunities lead to buying or investing in anything available.
3. An idea is complex and cannot be totally explained or related to an investor.
4. The crowd imitates the leader. All Aboard! Even the gardener has a tip!?
5. Prices fluctuate from traditional level to overvalued level, THEN to all new ground and all time highs.
6. New levels are sanctioned by experts. "We are in a new Paradigm!"
7. Fear of missing the boat takes over. Cloning of the idea occurs as many new overvalued competitors enter the market.
8. Lending practices are eased. Money flows like water to anything or anyone with a new idea.
9. Cult figures emerge for the new paradigm. The media promotes lifestyles, not substance.
10. The Bubble lasts longer than expected. Critics are dismissed. The last suckers are sucked in.
11. Fraud emerges as partly responsible for the bubble as the first cracks show in the bubble.
12. Finally, everyone has a reason why it cannot continue. But nobody dumps, and all hold onto their profits. No new buyers. Market stalls.
How a Bubble Bursts
1. A continued new supply of lower priced offerings occurs from rising prices. New IPO's get bigger and bigger
2. There is a rise in interest costs. The Government declares "Excessive Exuberance" and tightens credit too quickly.
3. Prices collapse and everyone heads for the exits at the same time. With no more buyers, prices hit free fall.
4. Fraud is uncovered in many diverse industries, and in monitoring and auditing agencies. This leads to more selling.
5. Governments intervene and give investors time to get out before the real decline.
Rules to Live By
1. Do not extrapolate the future from the present.
2. Trends continue for a long time (2-5 years) and then suddenly reverse chaotically. Witness the Tech Bubble.
3. Intermittent secondary corrections occur at Fibonacci Levels of 38%, 50% and 62% that result in classic Bull or Bear Traps.
4. Bottom picking begins several different times, trying to restart the Bubble, but to no avail. Massive losses occur to professionals trying to manipulate the markets.
5. Finally everyone recognizes that "Trends go further than you expect, and last longer than expected." Everyone gives up and sells.
6. As the volume of the decline decreases, a slow recovery begins.
Yes, I know there isn't really any credentials backing this up.
Yes, I know Bitcoin is not the stock market.
Yes, I know we should look to the past for answers to the present or future.
I'm adding this because it's interesting and others may find it's a useful contribution to the discussion.
The latest rebound is a bit overextended, I agree (I thought 670 would be the top). There is a good chance for a solid double top with mighty bearish consequences.
Unless it goes above 900$ I wouldnt call it unusual. Other bubbles in history have exhibited similar behaviour. IF we make a new ATH with in week I will start to believe the new paradigm.
Unless it goes above 900$ I wouldnt call it unusual. Other bubbles in history have exhibited similar behaviour. IF we make a new ATH with in week I will start to believe the new paradigm.
At what percentage within the previous top does one usually speak of "double top"? Right now it's within 1.3% of the previous top at Bitstamp.
i believe the history is still to young for the paradigm, we just started and we are picking up newbies investing in btc.
The latest rebound is a bit overextended, I agree (I thought 670 would be the top). There is a good chance for a solid double top with mighty bearish consequences.
Unless it goes above 900$ I wouldnt call it unusual. Other bubbles in history have exhibited similar behaviour. IF we make a new ATH with in week I will start to believe the new paradigm.
Unless it goes above 900$ I wouldnt call it unusual. Other bubbles in history have exhibited similar behaviour. IF we make a new ATH with in week I will start to believe the new paradigm.
At what percentage within the previous top does one usually speak of "double top"? Right now it's within 1.3% of the previous top at Bitstamp.
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