...However as we have seen with Casascius 25 BTC coins these things eventually sell out and they become more valuable than they originally cost, so it is very tempting to want to sell. What if in the future (after BTCC allows people to use their own addresses) there are some cases of theft, how is that going to reflect on BTTC and on the physical bitcoin market in general?
We can look at the timeframe between the last rally and the present to get a pretty good guess of the impact to the physical bitcoin market.
As soon as prices rise, market demand increases multiple-fold. However, this demand is not equal across all pieces.
The number of people that could afford a 100 BTC bar at $20 Bitcoin ($2,000 spot value) is very different than the number of market participants that can afford it at $350 BTC ($35,000 spot value).
So we have two competing forces:
a) The demand-increasing effect being exerted on the market as a whole.
b) The demand-shifting effect from higher-spot pieces to lower-spot pieces as price increases.
Right now (and for the past 3 years), this has left the premium physical collectible market in a gap - it needs to cross the chasm. Once HNWIs begin to consider premium cryptocurrencies as belonging in their portfolio of safe-haven assets, I expect the same violent price increase we see in the lower-cost collectibles to be applied to the higher end items. This first spike will vary from all other price changes in the future, as it reflects the first 'filling in' of market demand in a still infantile market.
While I've held the above market theory for years, it has never been clear precisely what
the catalyst would be which would generate that burst of demand and trust at the high-value piece level.
I maintain that the emergence of BTCC offering new, trusted pieces at both the average investor level as well as the premium level, alongside already strongly positive Bitcoin fundamentals, will serve as precisely the catalyst that is needed to reawaken the market.
There is yet another effect which tends to have a net-positive price effect on premium items. They are the first to be sold. Just look at the ratios of Redeemed pieces go up as the spot value goes up:
http://www.spotcoins.com/bitcoin/casasciusThis makes sense. As price keeps going up, eventually divesting from the physical pieces becomes necessary, as they are not divisible. If you hold a 25 BTC bar and it is your only Bitcoin left, this creates immense selling pressure, as we are still in the chasm. Once a few high-end pieces are
publicly snapped up (the stealth acquisition has been going on for years), I expect valuations for high end pieces to appreciate significantly and rapidly. There is a lot going on behind the scenes; I would not be surprised to see a few high-profile sales within the next few months.