Topic: New variant of Covid-19 (Omicron) (Read 228 times)

I'm afraid that they might not want to totally remove this calamity because they are earning with it and they don't really care about the struggle of the people who have lost their jobs due to their strict protocols. These lockdowns and mandatory wearing of face shields in our city might return again because they wanted total control and at the same time, to manipulate the people by thinking that the virus is still deadly. I hope they won't be totally taken over by their greed because it's been almost 2 years already, we need some total freedom again as we had before.

Yes.



No. Omicron does appear to be far less severe on average than earlier strains. However this doesn't mean that no-one becomes seriously ill, and no-one dies. One plus to it is that if some people are unwilling to get vaccinated, then it is better they catch Omicron to build up some immunity with less (but certainly not zero) chance of severe illness.

It appears that in nations with high vaccination levels, Omicron could be the start of the end of this thing. But of course many nations have low vaccination levels, including in sub-Saharan Africa where this variant arose. So rich nations are still susceptible to dangerous new variants unless they start sharing vaccine supply a lot more with others, particularly the global south.

Do you understand what theoretically means, franky?

It means under ideal conditions where if you need an x number of viral particles to distribute to someone in order to built the sufficient viral load. Omicron produces 70x that amount because it replicates 70x as fast.

So 70x transmissibility. Though I'll shift and add the word "potentially" in there in case it weren't already obvious. Not that I expected someone to believe there would literally be 70x more cases.

....need i say more
i cannot believe in 13 hours you forgot your own side of your debate

You should try some English and maybe you could actually reading what the source is saying.

The cycles are x10 slower in *lung tissue* meaning that is probably why the disease is less severe. I have no clue why you are comparing the replication rates in the bronchial tissue and in the lung tissue, they're not comparable in terms of transmissibility.

In bronchial tissue, the growth is 70 times the growth of delta, and the bronchial tissue is how Covid can spread (you cough on someone or sneeze on someone).

Per unit of cubic area produced by respiration of an infected person that has the delta variant, you would expect 70x the viral particles in the same cubic area and so *theoretically* it is 70x more transmissible.

That is not to say for every one case of delta, there are 70 cases of omicron. I have no clue why you think this is what I am saying and then proceed to write a novel debunking a strawman you've created for yourself.

replicates faster in the lungs.. not spreads to 70x more people!!!!
also not 70x more virus..
as there are only so many cells in the lungs. and only so much damage that can be done.

read the link you referenced
it replicates in the cell 70 more virus per cycle, but each cycle is 10x longer

EG if delta was a 2x per hour
2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024,2048 in 10 hours
omicron is 140(x2x70) in 10 hours
2                                                140   in 10 hours

as you can see at the 10th hour there is less virus in a omicron infected lung
which is why its less damaging to people.

more virus per cycle, but slower cycle. .. its math. try it

the reason for the "spread" is more about people not isolating when infected because they are not getting symptoms to realise they need to isolate

meaning.
if someone with delta is not going to get symptoms for say 3-5 days, he may hang around with a couple people a day for the days(day 4 and 5) where there is incubation enough to exhale enough virus to cross-transfer before symptoms start.
where as the omicron people wont get symptoms for a longer period. so they may not get symptoms for 10 days. but be at the cross-transfer risk for days 8,9,10 meaning 3 days of risk to other without realising it instead of 2

thus instead of infecting 3-4 under delta.. its risking infecting 3-6 under omicron(depending on social distance compliance)

this is why you are not seeing covid positive cases increase by 70x .. because its not spreading at 70x.
UK had 100 daily cases of omicron 5 weeks ago
if your 70x spread number had any merit.  it would be
100   7,000   490,000   34,300,000   2,401,000,000   168,070,000,000

sorry but its more like
100   360      1,296         4,666            16,796            60,466

because the stats are saying that this week the daily numbers are that ~60% of the 100k cases are omicron (~60k)
yep 60k after 5 weeks not millions or billions like you wish YOUR math has assumed

Seriously who does not like covid?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCRZstzHTfg

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/15/omicron-found-to-grow-70-times-faster-than-delta-in-bronchial-tissue

Under perfect settings, a person can produce a viral concentration amongst bronchial tissue 70x that of someone with the delta. So it is only theoretically that someone could infect another person with omicron at some exponential rate. But real life is not in perfect settings.

An infected person with omicron is not sitting on a train, with access to hundreds of people coughing on everyone with close contact totaling 15 minutes or so (enough to build a sufficient viral load and get the person infected). So if you could individually take a concentration of the virus and distribute it amongst a portion of the population, you would find the viral load to be 70x that of delta.

Not that in the data we would see a 70x mark in cases.

A month ago, I would completely rule out a new lockdown if you'd ask me, however, I'm not quite sure about now. New restrictions are now being placed in Greece, along with most European countries. At the same time, the scenario of a new lockdown is again on the table, supposedly with a duration of 20 days to a month.

Things that you said sounds like utopia. Some countries in Europe already going into lockdown or make more restrictions without calling it lockdown. And offcourse, they want to force people to take booster at any cost, despite that vaccine protection against omicron is questionable. Person with two jabs already doesn't count as fully vaccinated. Israel even starting to give 4th shot. Seems that whole this story don't have ending.

Amen.

With "Omicron" it's less concerning, and should be treated like common cold. Yes, common cold can kill, but no lock down, no mask mandate, no mandatory vaccine because of common cold.

FYI there's no vaccine, only an immunity booster that last for 6 months, so stop call it "vaccine."

Each new variant that appears is more transmissible than the original virus, it's how mutations work. On the other hand, these variants are making the virus itself less deadly. That doesn't necessarily mean that it's less concerning though, because it's capable of infecting a large amount of people, from which, a percentage of those will succumb to it. The greater the number of cases, the greater the numbers of deaths.

then alpha's 50k a day would be omicrom 7million cases a day..

i laugh if you think those numbers compute in your brain.
sorry but 1 person infecting 504 people...(3.6x140)... (facepalm)

do you really think that 1 person even hangs around with 504people within 2 metres for half an hour each in a 3 day period.
there are not even enough hours in a day for someone to socialise that much.

just try it. sit next to someone shoulder to shoulder and breath on them. for 30 minutes. then repeat 504 times. and see how many people you can get through in 3 days.

yes technically if you dont sleep and you have a conveyor belt of people lined up to speed date style do this game you can reach 140. maybe if you had 3-4 people sitting around you in a close circle per 30minute round. you might achieve 504
 but reality is most people only actually speak to and converse for 30 minutes with, about 5-10 people every few days

covid does not really infect people you just walk by for 2 seconds. (pre-empting the obvious naive rebuttal)

No that incorrect. It is 140x more transmissible than the original strain. 140% would make it 1.4x more transmissible.

For every 1 case, there would theoretically be 140x cases but that does not count for those who already have immunity, therefore would evade an infection. This is why the UK numbers do not add up. At some point, herd immunity kicks in with the naturally immunized and whatever percentatge is vaccinated (factoring in for the efficacy of the vaccine ie 30%, 40% ect. Some studies suggest the vaccines don't really do well against Omicron, but I am making the best case scenario for the sake of an example).

The numbers are at a peak, you expect them to go down rapidly just as they increased rapidly.

100k cases per day would be a dream. Everyone gets a mild cold, virtually no deaths, and robust natural immunity is achieved and pandemic's over. But, 100k cases (or whatever that number is) won't last long.

its not 140x/70x.. its 140%70%.

alpha was for every infectee it would spread ~3.6 other people(between 3 or 4). .. omicron is not infecting 420 people per infectee
its infecting 5 people.

part of the reason why it appears as if omicron is infecting 6-8 people(double alpha) as oppose to 5 is more to do with the social differences between 2020 and 2021.. march-april 2020 onwards had lockdowns. that cut down the number of infectees per day. and distanced people apart more to avoid numbers being more the 3-4 per transmission.. in 2021 there is more relaxed movement of people and less social distancing happening. which is why statistically its more like 6-8. but frmo a virulent strength it is more like a 5. . so the relaxed social dynamic of being nearer to people in 2021 skews the numbers to appear as omicron is even more spreadable. when the real reason is more people are standing closer to pass it around


yes in alpha the most cases per day in the UK was ~ 50k a day (350k a week)which is about 0.5% a week. meaning to get everyone to have had covid and it become 'common' would take 200weeks, or 4 years. best case if the peak number was the average. but its not. so the numbers were more like 10years

omicron is getting about 100k cases a day or 700k a week right now. so 1% a week. meaning it can go through the whole population in 2 years. again best case if the peak number was an average. but its not. so expect longer

so to all those thinking that covid has already infected everyone and become common due to alpha.. sorry but the numbers show that not everyone has had it yet. to all those that think omicron will make covid 'common' in just a couple months and everything will be normal by spring.. sorry but covid as a risk to peoples health due to still being 'novel' is something people need to plan on for a few more years

as for the severity..
although omicron is less severe. because the case numbers are double, even a less sever strain can result in same hospital numbers as the more sever strain.

EG if alpha was 6% hospitalisation. and lets say omicron was 3% hospitalisation.
if 50k infected by alpha and 100k infected by omicron
there would be 3k hospital beds due to alpha in 2020 and 3k hospital beds due to omicron in 2021

meaning hospitals would fill up just as fast due to twice as many people getting infected.


oh and one last thing.
'sniffles' is only a symptom if you have already gained immunity before hand and your body is able to recognise and handle and attack the virus due to it being common.

for those never having covid yet or a vaccine. when you get covid. you will not get the 'sniffles' as its new to your system and your body doesnt know how to react. so your first defense at the entryway(nose) is not activated yet to fight. so dont expect sniffles. expect a heavy dry cough.. sniffles come later once everyone has had a few battles with the virus or been vaxxed to activate the immune system ready for battle.

sniffles is not yet a common symptom because covid is not common. so dont even try to pretend peoples first covid infection will be 'sniffles'

They are saying that it spreads faster in the EU. It's all over the news for days, this health crisis is really going to make the wealth of the country or people dry.

New variants keep coming and it looks very much come from somewhere else this time. Could the virus mutate on its own or this is really coming from a lab?
The previous doses for covid will be useless if another mutation spreads out and still affected the ones who are already vaccinated. 

new variants continue to appear and omicron is the latest variant at the end of this year. what new variant will appear in 2022, I'm sure it's many times more widespread than omicron LOL

That's right, even as much as 75% protection for the symptoms of this new variant of Covid after receiving an additional dose (booster) is not as high as when facing the previous variants. This indicates that the vaccines that have been circulating are not as effective as when used in the previous variant of the covid. So when will this scenario end?

Omicron is 70x more infectious in the Bronchia, and one tenth as infectious in the lung cavities where you can get pneumonia. Because it is replicating in the bronchia, you are more likely to breath it out, and this is why it spreads so quickly. Unless you are stupid enough to wear a mask everywhere, you will clear the infection quickly, and you won't build the pathogen enough to mess up your lungs. So far, I understand that nobody has become seriously ill from it, but many people have reacted badly to the booster injections.

One point of interest, the sulphur compound in garlic breath kills the virus, so if you want to help reduce infection, eat garlic and don't wear a mask.

Please note - I have no medical training, and thus I am able to research the true facts without employment pressures, and without having been subject to pharma propaganda.

Thanks sir for the information.
I was very worried about the new variant omicron because of where my parents live, there is one omicron infected person on that area. This is why I am so much tensed though they got vaccinated (mordana).