Newest scam in town! | Bitcointalksearch.org

MPOE-PR

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 522

Quote from: redtwitz on June 30, 2013, 01:46:05 PM

Quote from: Rippleflip.com on June 30, 2013, 03:54:41 AM

Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD.

I'm not arguing that. I did the math. For anyone who's interested:

Code:

Multiplicator|Probability|Expected earnings
-------------+-----------+-----------------
17 | 2/1024 | 34/1024
7 | 20/1024 | 140/1024
3 | 45/1024 | 135/1024
2 | 285/1024 | 570/1024
1/2 | 252/1024 | 126/1024
0 | 420/1024 | 0/1024
-------------+-----------+-----------------
SUM 1024/1024 1005/1024

Since the expected earnings are 1005 / 1024 of your bet, the house's edge is (1024 - 1005) / 1024 = 19 / 1024 = 0.018554687 = 1.8554687 %.

Quote from: Rippleflip.com on June 30, 2013, 03:54:41 AM

I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32%

The probability of losing your entire bet is 41.02 % and the probability of losing half of it is 24.61 %. Therefore, the probability of losing at least part of your bet is 65.63 %. That's all that I'm saying.

I think the math behind your 53.32 % is flawed; you're mixing probability and expected value here.

So exactly what is the scam, I don't get it. Your chances to lose your first 5000 state lottery tickets are pretty good, does this make the state lottery a scam?

(Not that it isn't a scam, but not for this reason.)

Rippleflip.com

newbie

Activity: 36

Merit: 0

Quote from: redtwitz on June 30, 2013, 01:46:05 PM

Quote from: Rippleflip.com on June 30, 2013, 03:54:41 AM

Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD.

I'm not arguing that. I did the math. For anyone who's interested:

Code:

Multiplicator|Probability|Expected earnings
-------------+-----------+-----------------
17 | 2/1024 | 34/1024
7 | 20/1024 | 140/1024
3 | 45/1024 | 135/1024
2 | 285/1024 | 570/1024
1/2 | 252/1024 | 126/1024
0 | 420/1024 | 0/1024
-------------+-----------+-----------------
SUM 1024/1024 1005/1024

Since the expected earnings are 1005 / 1024 of your bet, the house's edge is (1024 - 1005) / 1024 = 19 / 1024 = 0.018554687 = 1.8554687 %.

Quote from: Rippleflip.com on June 30, 2013, 03:54:41 AM

I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32%

The probability of losing your entire bet is 41.02 % and the probability of losing half of it is 24.61 %. Therefore, the probability of losing at least part of your bet is 65.63 %. That's all that I'm saying.

I think the math behind your 53.32 % is flawed; you're mixing probability and expected value here.

You're correct.

gogxmagog

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1010

Ad maiora!

the ponies have been scamming me for years.

redtwitz

full member

Activity: 231

Merit: 100

Quote from: Rippleflip.com on June 30, 2013, 03:54:41 AM

Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD.

I'm not arguing that. I did the math. For anyone who's interested:

Code:

Multiplicator|Probability|Expected earnings
-------------+-----------+-----------------
17 | 2/1024 | 34/1024
7 | 20/1024 | 140/1024
3 | 45/1024 | 135/1024
2 | 285/1024 | 570/1024
1/2 | 252/1024 | 126/1024
0 | 420/1024 | 0/1024
-------------+-----------+-----------------
SUM 1024/1024 1005/1024

Since the expected earnings are 1005 / 1024 of your bet, the house's edge is (1024 - 1005) / 1024 = 19 / 1024 = 0.018554687 = 1.8554687 %.

Quote from: Rippleflip.com on June 30, 2013, 03:54:41 AM

I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32%

The probability of losing your entire bet is 41.02 % and the probability of losing half of it is 24.61 %. Therefore, the probability of losing at least part of your bet is 65.63 %. That's all that I'm saying.

I think the math behind your 53.32 % is flawed; you're mixing probability and expected value here.

Rippleflip.com

newbie

Activity: 36

Merit: 0

Quote from: redtwitz on June 29, 2013, 11:22:36 PM

There are 2¹⁰=1024 different possible outcomes when flipping a coin 10 times. If that coin is fair, the outcomes will be distributed proportionally to the values of the eleventh row of the Pascal triangle, that is, proportional to:

Code:

1 10 45 120 210 252 210 120 45 10 1

This means that if you repeat this game 1024 times, the expected outcome is 1 time all heads, 10 times 9 heads and 1 tail, 45 times 8 heads and 2 tails, etc.

On Rippleflip, you lose your entire bet if you get 4 heads (or whatever they call it) and 6 tails or vice versa. I agree with you that recovering half of your bet isn't exactly winning, so you also lose if you get 5 heads and 5 tails.

That means that in every game there's a chance of (210 + 252 + 210) / 1024 = 672 / 1024 = 0.65625 = 65.625 % of losing.

If you play 8 times in a row (like you did), you'll lose all 8 times with probability 0.65625⁸=0.03439969=3.439969 %. That sound unlikely, but statistically 1 out of every 1 / 0.03439969 = 29 customers will lose his first 8 games in a row.

I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32%
Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD.

STT

legendary

Activity: 4102

Merit: 1454

Probably the best answer your'll ever get. Pascal was the Don Cool

Goto a local fair and the stalls are using really old laws of probability to make an easy win over you. I remember seeing the Pascal triangle as a game several times & it wins $50 if you reach that far end 1 in 1024 chance event

I thought some sort of error in probability where it became exploitable would be the downfall of BTC somehow but apparently not so far

redtwitz

full member

Activity: 231

Merit: 100

There are 2¹⁰=1024 different possible outcomes when flipping a coin 10 times. If that coin is fair, the outcomes will be distributed proportionally to the values of the eleventh row of the Pascal triangle, that is, proportional to:

Code:

1 10 45 120 210 252 210 120 45 10 1

This means that if you repeat this game 1024 times, the expected outcome is 1 time all heads, 10 times 9 heads and 1 tail, 45 times 8 heads and 2 tails, etc.

On Rippleflip, you lose your entire bet if you get 4 heads (or whatever they call it) and 6 tails or vice versa. I agree with you that recovering half of your bet isn't exactly winning, so you also lose if you get 5 heads and 5 tails.

That means that in every game there's a chance of (210 + 252 + 210) / 1024 = 672 / 1024 = 0.65625 = 65.625 % of losing.

If you play 8 times in a row (like you did), you'll lose all 8 times with probability 0.65625⁸ = 0.03439969 = 3.439969 %. That sound unlikely, but statistically 1 out of every 1 / 0.03439969 = 29 customers will lose his first 8 games in a row.

cdog

hero member

Activity: 1036

Merit: 500

Anything involving Ripple is pretty much a waste of time at best, or a scam at worst.

worldinacoin

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: jubalix on June 29, 2013, 03:00:58 AM

why would I gamble/use a system that is provable = I lose?

Yeap, why why why? You have to answer it yourself.

jubalix

legendary

Activity: 2632

Merit: 1023

why would I gamble/use a system that is provable = I lose?

Slipage

member

Activity: 78

Merit: 10

Agree with most of the comments, you are gambling that many times, you are certain to loose everything , and it won't be a scam, just stupidity on your part.

worldinacoin

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

It is gambling, you are sure to lose and no one forces you to play

skull88

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Activity: 683

Merit: 500

Quote from: elements on June 26, 2013, 09:38:14 PM

have you ever thrown a coin?

This is not roulette. Look at the payout structure.

I just thought people would like to know.

(BTW I wouldn't consider getting back 50% of your wager winning)

Oh, and I hereby invite you to play if you think it's such a good deal...

Quote

The house edge of the game is ~1.85%.
Ten coins are flipped, each coin landing on either or side.

Resembles roulette when playing Black-Red, Even-Odd and 1 to 18 - 19 to 36. Only difference here, they don't take one turn but 10.

For your coin, what makes you think you can't pick the wrong side 8 times in a row?

Rippleflip.com

newbie

Activity: 36

Merit: 0

Hello!

It was a surprise to see our site being called a scam here. To be clear, it is not.
And we of course can prove it. Please, input your ripple address here to verify the game outcome: http://www.rippleflip.com/?data

We will answer all your questions via our thread, pm, IRC (Rippleflip@Freenode) or email.

Hydroponica

full member

Activity: 182

Merit: 100

fml

Quote from: elements on June 26, 2013, 09:38:14 PM

have you ever thrown a coin?

This is not roulette. Look at the payout structure.

I just thought people would like to know.

(BTW I wouldn't consider getting back 50% of your wager winning)

Oh, and I hereby invite you to play if you think it's such a good deal...

Its called gambling. The house always wins, idiot Roll Eyes