Topic: Next Big Bitcoin Price Increase (Read 5098 times)

I can't help but LOL at my thoughts, but this is the stuff religion is made from.

Chodpaba's second third coming will be a sign. I believe he will return otherwise he is omnipotent and walks among us 

Sorry for the thread necro but I was thinking about how much I missed Chodpaba's carefully considered posts (most or all of which seem to be deleted) and I stumbled on this.

Seems Hfleer was right. Thanx for the quote for posterity Randrace.

Quoted for posterity.

http://bitcoinclock.com/
It could be a little earlier because actual hashing is increasing faster than the estimated difficulty. But who can tell.

Did the last halving occur in Late 2012? Won't the next one be in 4 years, in 2016?

Next halving won't occur until 2017.

you guys also should remember that during the first block rate halving  (I don't know if you guys were there), we never had one before and didn't know how to take it. We didn't "feel" the supply get cut, til months later when the demand picked up for one reason or another, because the market was still relatively immature at that point. By the time this next one comes, we'll be fully ready for it.

Because improved mining tech suddenly allows miners to buy hardware which has lower marginal electricity cost and thus is very profitable to operate, miners start to rapidly push up difficulty and being hyper-bulls by nature they wish to keep as many as possible.  Miners begin selling less coins into the exchanges which dries up supplies after about a month or two.  As supply dries up price rises and it becomes a self perpetuating cycle as miners hoard even more coins during the bubble run up, media hype brings in new buyers as well.  Eventually old coins are enticed to cash out and pop the bubble and or the supply of new buyers runs own.

2011 bubble was clearly driven by GPU adoption, this bubble seems to have been triggered by the block reward halving but their are certainly some ASIC technology elements at play as well.  It may be that the first movement from $15 to $30 was the response to reward changes and everything after that was the ASIC bubble.  It will be interesting to see what we get at the next reward halving, will price go through a gradual 2-3 month doubling (presumably staying stable after that) or will it be a wild double exponential bubble?  I'm leaning towards the former, that block halving alone don't set off wild bubbles, only mining hardware dose that.

P.S.  niko, the Gox trading volume has over the last few days become so anemic its practically equal the the entire daily coin creation, so again that production would be very significant if it were to reach the market.  My prediction is that we will not find the stable price point until the daily mining output is being consistently liquidated and we find out how much the BTC community is willing and able to spend buying that daily production.

I think the price will already be over $10,000 by mid-2016. There may well be a jump due to the halving on top of that.

If we have an indicator of the number of miners that will be great. I suppose that if the number of miners increased by 10x, then the price should rise by 10x. This is because each miner's bitcoin payout will reduce to 1/10 but their available risk capital still remain the same. Mining technology is unrelated, they will always get the best technology available

"Printed" USD are immediately injected into the economy. You don't know what miners do with their coins. Blockchain analysis would reveal this - but we need to keep in mind that most mining is pooled mining, so a sufficient number of spends should be included in the tree to consider mined coins "spent" (as opposed to being kept in little miners' wallets).

Just wondering if flow of money into altcoins has much effect on bitcoin price. Obviously no single alt currency will have a noticeable influence but there is quite a few already and counting.

Cool another first on the internet a new definition for Bitcoin " risk distribution virus" I love it, this is going to push those EFT's and bifurcate exchange rates. I was trying to explain distributed socialized voluntary p2p managed wealth preservation and I think risk distribution virus does the job. Nice.

No, it's not insignificant. In the FOREX Market, the additionally printed US-Dollars are less than 6% of the traded volumes in public exchanges.
Therefore you would argue, that printing USD doesn't matter and is insignificant in the market. Such an argument is BS.

chodpaba I enjoy your posts a lot so thank you.

I believe niko was saying your graph is BS and the actual graph can be seen on bitcoincharts.com (conveniently posted below yours in his post.) is the source data for your graph publically available?
One question I had is: does your graph show data up until the day it was posted?

Your graph is an exaggeration of what I had expected, still quite amassing, how does it look in log scale?
And if you had to apply a similar smoothing to the hash rate on the same timeframe what would it look like if you fitted it to that graph?

On the design of Bitcoin, I often wonder how much was by intention, and how much is an elegant consequence.  While I hate to critique such a genius design, that huge increase in Dollar volume relative to mined coins, is want I would consider a barrier to adoption, and possibly an oversight in the design, your thoughts?

Is anyone else still hoping Mt. Gox get's replaced one day?
At any rate I think by this time next year we will have seen prices well over $300 and holding.

When price has been stable, it takes a while to wash out all the market makers who are maintaining the spread before you can break out.  Fundamental shifts rarely show up in the charts on the day they first take effect.

Block 210 000 was mined on 2012-11-28:




There was no increase in value.  In fact, the rally started a month and a half later.

There was no increase in trade volume. The volume started spiking 2-3 months after reward halving.

Besides facts stated above, I shall also restate the fact that 30-day trading volume (easily verifiable, e.g. from bitcoincharts.com/markets) adds up to ~2 million coins. In the same period, 108 000 coins were mined - due to ASIC pressure and resulting serial increases in the difficulty, there was some time compression, let's say 115 000 coins. This is less than 6% of the coins traded in public exchanges. If you decide to ignore the fact of cross-currency arbitrage, and only look at the USD trades, we are still at ~10% of the overall trade. What miners get and what they do with it is insignificant in this market.

You are wasting everybody's time with baseless speculation and false data. The actual data clearly indicates that there was no any significant effect of block reward halving.

Interestingly the two notable increase also coincide with an exponential increase in difficulty.

Interesting