Topic: Next Bitcoin Halving will drive the price down... - page 3. (Read 1329 times)

If the past previous halving pumps the price of bitcoin I wouldn't believe a contrary price behavior in this year halving, price history will always repeat itself although I would agree that there may be a temporary decline or drop in the price of bitcoin after the halving however a pump is imminent in the aftermath of the halving let us watch how the price action would unfold during that period.

Truly it is hard to pump the market without institutional investors. As of now we need regulation for the betterment of the market, but for some reason when regulated governments will try to have control over the market. When things go under a centralized authority the growth will get disturbed. Before the next halving entire bitcoin might be mined.

I actually agree with you and I'm betting on a bullish 2020, but a sample size of 2 isn't exactly "time and time again." Something happening twice could be nothing more than a coincidence.


Difficulty just rose 6.57%. It was flat for a month before that. Nothing huge but this is obviously not the "miner capitulation" some people were FUD'ing about.

And who told you that?
There is a Miner in your name? Are you one of them?

In that case then, the difficulty will be reduced. Transaction validation will be easier.
Yeah, they might be the backbone of the bitcoin network but still there are miners out there who are waiting for their chance to get in.
They just cannot do it because of the hardware that they have. But if given a chance, I think they really want to do it in bitcoin instead of other coins.

It has only been 2 halvings. This is not much data to be certain that miner capitulation will not occur on the next one. Also, bitcoin is more regulated today than 4 years ago. It might be harder to pump without the institutional investors' help.

Except history has shown us time and time again that this is simply not true. The last halving, and the halving before the last halving all resulted in significant gains in price for BTC.

Based on market expectations alone it should be sufficient to say that there will at least be a resurgence in bullish sentiment, if not anything else.

BTW, isn't hash rate climbing at this current moment? I recall seeing an article yesterday about how bitcoin hash rate has been climbing consistently. The newfound scarcity of coins after the halving will result in price hikes that will likely push miner rewards up in fiat terms anyhow.

True that we can see it on the history of Bitcoin price during the halving.  Price goes up months before the halving and goes down after it, then comes the bullish trend of breaking ATH because the effect of the halving is felt by the market.  Remember reduced supply and increased demand will always result in price increase and LTC case is a bit different because I believe there is no increase in demand in there, just hype.

I think the same way. In this market there is a rule that is "buying rumors, selling news" ... this rule is always true in this market and so I also predict that the price of bitcoin will rise in the months before BTC halving, but then the price will fall. It will be similar to the situation of LTC in 2019. So we should not be too optimistic and believe in the bull market in 2020.

if many miners stop for that reason, then some surviving miners will benefit, and if miners who stop using bitcoin start buying bitcoin, won't the demand increase? this will increase the price. however, at the moment I think that the next halving will make the price of bitcoin higher.

It takes several months before we see its either a positive or negative impact but the previous halving are sees to good, making this new coming halving will also help to increase the support level. Not sure if it will drive for the bullish market but all just having hope that it changes the price direction. Nothing more I want.

I'd say this over speculation goes in both directions. For every person who expects the halving to catalyze a bull run, another person (or maybe 2) claims it's already priced in and that this time will be different.

Personally, I think halvings are just "buy the rumor, sell the news" events taking place along a long term bullish trajectory.

Doesnt sound correct to me, demand outranks production for importance barring the quality of a protocol which is not exactly what miners do.   If miners drop out enough then the difficulty adjusts to accommodate that fall in production, isnt the protocol set in its schedule to self adjust.
   People over speculate the halvening, thats what tends to happen.  Sure its a tightening to the standard but its afterwards that this process starts to occur not before yet the speculation is in anticipation.    Dont worry about it too much, I would call it similarly to last time where the lesson for me seems to be that the year after not the year containing the halvening is where more action will occur.    People are too impatient always, a good base has to be built for reasonable movement in the price so that might mean we stay 'low' or sideways for 6 months and its not even that negative if it does that for the whole of 2020 imo.
   We are just a boat, or an armada even in a whole sea of changes and BTC relys on many things to transform, change, tides to shift before price goes up/down.  I only worry if BTC can adapt and keep being useful but the miners are workers.  I dropped out of mining years ago and nobody seemed to mind or the many of us now not mining, it sails on without us.

It's possible but we can't be so sure on what we say until we get there. For now that is just speculation like those bull run speculation after halving. If your words is true plus panic selling, that can cause the price to fall, then we may have a chance to buy at a cheaper price. But I really doubt btc will fall, don't forget about our saying "history repeat itself" and just like previous halving, the price of btc will increase and will set a new ATH. Right now, all we can do is wait and see who is right, bullish or bearish prediction.

Price would always vary on the demand and we know that it did happened back in the past where halving events do really have significant positive outcome onwards.

But somehow we cant really guarantee that we would see the same scenario yet rewards been cut in half.When we do talk about miners then for sure the one who would
survive are to those have bigger farms or lots of rigs.This is indeed a business and shutting down is not really that relevant.

I still don't see how it's fundamentally different than the last halving. Marginal miners who become unprofitable after the halving will shut down. Other miners will take their place. Looking at the difficulty trend over the years, miners are still very bullish on BTC, so I don't see why anything will change.

I don't think anything is ever "priced in" until after the fact. Check out stock-to-flow vs. price in 2012 and 2016. There was a little pump prior to the halvings but the exponential increases came later: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.52690215

Maybe you might need to read the laws of demand and supply again and understand that halving has been following this laws. Bitcoin halving reduce the number of supply that hit the market daily and it is going to affect price by following the dictates of the economics laws.

Lately, the price of altcoin goes up and down with the price of bitcoin. So if bitcoin tanks, so will altcoins. There is nothing we can do about it. Good thing is, bitcoin price normally goes up a few months after the halving. So crypto will be alive again. I expect a better bull run after the halving.

There used to be short term dumps near the previous halvings. It's normal for groups of people to try to take profit to err on the side of caution. Halving is a big event that can cause turmoil if something goes wrong. It's like when you swap engine in your car and take it for the first test ride. Some people will bet on this ride ending in a failure of one of the systems, even if they know the swap was made in a professional manner. With new things there's always that uncertainty if they'll work.
As time goes by and nothing bad happens the investors will come back.

I have a friend who thinks exactly like this and is adamant that the price will be down near to the halving. If this is even true for a small part then what might happen to altcoins.?
This argument was there even in the past but the haters are more at this moment.

I do not understand what you mean, it should be that if the production of bitcoin gets slower then the price of bitcoin will increase. if bitcoin becomes more difficult to obtain the miners will sell it at a higher price, and that can be a trigger for bull run. this is market law, my advice is that you should learn about market law.