Topic: Next Bitcoin price Benchmark - page 2. (Read 318 times)

I don't remember any negative news in the past couple of months, there were a lot of FUD though. For example we had the small drop in hashrate which created a huge amount of FUD scaring people into thinking the hashrate is all gone and "it is the end"!
This is exactly why there was no reason for price to remain this low for this long.

Bitcoins will not show any big move till November-December duo because these are the months when Bitcoin's volatility had been very high and it is already 30-40% up from its latest lows made. A $3k move in an hour was to liquidate shorts in a single take and bulls successfully scared the hell outta bears. Searches for Bitcoin and crypto on Google, however, have seen sharp decline after btc and other crypto began to fall.

Frankly, I'm very surprised to see Bitcoin at $40k right now. I think it's a temporary boost that will correct itself because it was probably based on fomo around debunked rumors of Amazon planning to start accepting Bitcoin. Unless something else happens within the next few days to keep the price up, I don't feel confident about Bitcoin managing to even keep the price at $40k, let alone go higher. I agree with franky1's expectation window as being reasonable, but indeed, it's hard to make predictions that make sense beyond the specificity of this frame.

It's like grade school all over again!

You gave me just what I needed. Thanks for simplifying it.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 90. In the overbought zone, maintaining a balance above $40,000 is the key to an uptrend.

zooming out to the weekly chart there is so much room for growth of the BTC if this is really going to break the resistance to move up again but of course, the growth won't be just stuffed inside one candle. one thing is for sure is that this growth hasn't gone to its overbought.

so much of the negative news happening in the previous months but not a single week that the price stays below $30k which is a good manifestation of the bulls coming to rescue.

After Amazon denied the news of using Bitcoin to pay, it caused market chaos. The transaction price is now slightly higher than $40,000. If the 200 SMA resistance level is broken, the price of Bitcoin will soon exceed $44,000.
But the price at the end of August is difficult to predict, and no one will know in advance what will happen during this time.

Just as most have pointed out here, we cannot really determine where the price of BITcoin will be by end August however I do believe that it looks like BItcoin is headed in the right, uptrend direction now.

You can see that, all the way from back in October 2020 Bitcoins price have always been on top of the 50 SMA and the 100 EMA until the price finally went under sometime in May 2021 and have been trading below those lines since. But look at what is happening now to the price after that, Bitcoins price has once again broken above both the 50 SMA and the 100 EMA on a daily chart. so I believe the market might be in an uptrend again even though anything can happen in crypto land and we see another downtrend of price but, I hope not.  

assumptions you can make. that can help(no prediction model. just some assumed bases of economics

imagine you know 4 people around the world.
one in china. one in america. one in the UK and one in germany..

you can work out if they are going to be buyers or miners wishing to sell

heres how it works
calculate their mining costs for mining in their region based on electric cost per country stats and mining calculators.

heres the numbers i get using the most efficient hashing miner per hours electric .. plus hardware cost(spread over year)

germany 36cent/kwh = $55k mining cost per btc - not mining but buying
UK 24cent/kwh = $44k cost per btc - not mining but buying
US 13cent/kwh =$34k cost per btc - was buying last week. now mining to potentially sell
                                                                             (market price shift from $30k-$39k)
china 4cent/kwh =$25k cost per btc - mining all throughout to potentially sell

you can now work out some things
no one can mine coin anywhere on planet cheaper then $25k
so every miner would switch off hardware and just buy if price ever went that low
this buy pressure then holds the price up, lack of sell pressure holds price up

no one can mine more expensive than $55k. so if the price went up. people will have no reason to buy and would be mining to sell
the sell pressure holds price down. the lack of buy pressure holds price down

this becomes the window of value... $25k-$55k
the potential top and bottom

you may sometimes get shortlived spikes and cliffs that dont even last a few hours or a day. beyond those windows. but on a day long-week measure the numbers always fit
above the top window. is definitely BUBBLE speculation territory. never expect it to sustain

and if you think about the main countries interested in bitcoin
america, europe asia
you can start forming bases of settling points
(mainly america is considered mid-point of good support)

in january. the window based on that gens asics was $21k-$72k
and as always. it never deviated outside that window

in 2018 the window was $3k-$25k

so.
for instance. for germany to even consider buying coin above $60k long term
the network hashrate has to be above 125exahash long term and for germans to want to buy coin more then other countries below them want to sell

the higher the hashrate the more countries join in on wanting to buy rather then mine. meaning less countries want to min to sell


TL:dr;
dont expect $60k sustainable right now. no chance
dont expect $20k sustainable right now. no chance
$25-$55k is reasonable expectation window.

Yeah, we have like >25% increased in the last 7 days.


We need to see if we can sustained the $40,000 bench mark first, so far it's been very volatile once we touch it, so that's the first goal at least for this week. If we become stable at this price then we can go and try $43,000 then $45,000.


The only way we can see it obviously if that if there are more investors willing to pour their money on the market. So that's remain to be seen.

It is difficult to determine the next bitcoin price benchmark when the behavior from the market base is indeterminate. No one knows the next turn and direction even the most experienced professional traders. The important thing is that the optimism from the market sentiment has not fully recovered in my opinion. We haven't been able to break out of $40k, a really important milestone to determine. The indicators are strong, and show that it has a large breakout capacity. I hope this week we come back 47k- 50k$

What the price will be at that time is unclear to everybody. We can analyze what seems most likely, or certain hypotheses (if this happens, this will surely happen) but if someone could determine the price at the end of August or at any other time, he would become a multimillionaire without having to buy and hold for many years.

I believe that if we get above 41K and some, which is resistance, there is a clear path to go up to $50 and beat ATH in a few weeks. It depends on when we get over that resistance, we will get to higher prices sooner or later.

Man. No one can see the price trend. The short-term price trend depends on how the big institutions plan to hype. If you have been watching a short-term increase of a few thousand dollars, your wallet will lose money, because luck will not keep standing. On your side.

This week has been one of the most exciting weeks to bitcoin holders and traders since the bitcoin last all-time high in April 2021,

After the bitcoin price roused to $64k in April before shortly falling back to below $30k last week and then recovered back to above $40k within this week, this price movement has triggered so much analysis in the market. While some said bitcoin next benchmark will be $45k before moving above $50k some others are of the opinion that bitcoin price is going to crash back to below $25k before making a gradual recovery back to $35k.

but I think bitcoin may see the $45k price before the end of this week but what the price will be at the end of august is still very unclear to me so I brought the topic here for us to discuss.