I don't think it will happen this year, after halving in 2020 so maybe in 2021. Maybe that will happen faster, like in the end of this year or maybe next one, but I doubt it. Price will rise but only after 2021 I expect this huge bull run and price with 5 digits. With price we never know, my prediction is based on years here, watching price moving and what people talk. I believe in my prediction like 70-30.
Yup it sure was a 100x rise from the bottom of the last crash to the height of the last boom. Pretty crazy. If this crash has bottomed out it did so at roughly $6k, or as you say (more roughly) $5k. With the amount of money in the marketplace now I don't think we're gonna have a single bull run gain anywhere near 50x from the last bottom. I could see eventually $200k maybe 5+ years from now after maybe three more boom/bust cycles. I think a 10-20x from the $6k bottom is more likely, conservatively I'm predicting it to be closer to 10x. You have to remember the bottom this time at $6k is 30x higher than the last bottom at $200. So it takes 30x more money demand to move by the same percentage, and you're saying its gonna move (200k/6k=33.3x) at least a third as much as it did last time, despite it being 30x harder.
Now obviously a lot more money will flow in next time as the audience expands exponentially and institutional investors likely hop on board with many times more money, but still 10x or maybe 15x feels like a more likely situation for the next boom since its 30x harder to move the market now.
Though I wouldn't be complaining if it went a lot higher! If Bitcoin even gets close to $100k I'll have hit my life financial goals so that'd be great to happen in the next 1.5-3 years!
Each of us have different opinion. Many times underestimated bitcoin strength, this time I made some bold predictions and we will see what will happen. Your prediction sounds more realistic then mine, and before two years I always tried to be humble as possible but after I so how quick price raised from 1k to 20k dollars I know everything is possible with bitcoin.
Time will tell who was more close with all of our predictions. I know now that with bitcoin is hard to make any realistic predictions, every time I tried that I was wrong, price surprised me with its rise. We will see what will happen, let's remember our predictions and see who was right, we can even place some little bet for that.