Next diff ? | Bitcointalksearch.org

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Its raining blocks!

7 blocks, less than 8 minutes lol.

Estimated Next Difficulty: 418,182,255 (+56.19%)
Adjust time: After 764 Blocks, About 3.6 days

Looks like this one will take only ~9 days.
If this keeps up, the next difficulty after that will happen in the weekend of November 2/3rd and even the very first hashfast customers may start mining around 6-700M difficulty. Even if bitcoin goes up another 20%, thats gonna screw some people

waltermot321

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 250

Quote from: johncarpe64 on October 22, 2013, 06:16:38 AM

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty: 267,731,249
Estimated Next Difficulty: 412,053,448 (+53.91%)

We are all doomed...

Well, the increase in Bitcoin price should cushion the difficulty increment a little.

GigaWave

full member

Activity: 239

Merit: 250

Quote from: Puppet on October 22, 2013, 02:51:34 AM

Quote from: GigaWave on October 21, 2013, 11:17:15 AM

With 2.8 petra hash the diff. needs to be ~390 million for the block rate target.
Only about 700 tera hash need for 500 million diff.

The difficulty change isnt based on the last hashrate, but on the average hashrate over the previous period. So it will take a lot more than 700TH . To get to 500M at the next change, the network would need to have averaged 3.5 PH over the period. Since it started around 2.4 PH and was flat for some days, it would need to end closer to 5PH.

Yes, I know this. See "for the block rate target". Just stating that the hash rate is there for X Difficulty. It will probably take a least one more Diff. correction after this coming one to be closer to the real target.

Up to ~3.4 Petra hash, 474 Million diff

evansearle42

sr. member

Activity: 366

Merit: 250

Quote from: Puppet on October 22, 2013, 06:19:43 AM

Quote from: johncarpe64 on October 22, 2013, 06:16:38 AM

We are all doomed...

Nope. Only the ones who did not see this coming and where daft enough to preorder from HF, CT or even BFL.
The coins in my wallet are doing just fine, thank you very much.

I am also doomed. I only assumed 25% in my calculation. Never though it would be 40% and now 50%.....

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Quote from: johncarpe64 on October 22, 2013, 06:16:38 AM

We are all doomed...

Nope. Only the ones who did not see this coming and where daft enough to preorder from HF, CT or even BFL.
The coins in my wallet are doing just fine, thank you very much.

johncarpe64

sr. member

Activity: 420

Merit: 250

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty: 267,731,249
Estimated Next Difficulty: 412,053,448 (+53.91%)

We are all doomed...

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Quote from: GigaWave on October 21, 2013, 11:17:15 AM

With 2.8 petra hash the diff. needs to be ~390 million for the block rate target.
Only about 700 tera hash need for 500 million diff.

The difficulty change isnt based on the last hashrate, but on the average hashrate over the previous period. So it will take a lot more than 700TH . To get to 500M at the next change, the network would need to have averaged 3.5 PH over the period. Since it started around 2.4 PH and was flat for some days, it would need to end closer to 5PH.

GigaWave

full member

Activity: 239

Merit: 250

With 2.8 petra hash the diff. needs to be ~390 million for the block rate target.
Only about 700 tera hash need for 500 million diff.

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1473

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

375M

arlekyn13

sr. member

Activity: 288

Merit: 250

Quote from: imrer on October 20, 2013, 05:01:45 PM

It's growing faster and faster. I believe so many miners mine for hope that the price will go up.

Same old mistake many new miners do. Unless you get a positive ROI from mining in BTC, buying a miner is still a bad choice no matter the conversion rate.

imrer

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

It's growing faster and faster. I believe so many miners mine for hope that the price will go up.

rammy2k2

legendary

Activity: 1974

Merit: 1003

the next diff will be again a huge one, so far it will be at least 31%, but its growing daily

Zebra

hero member

Activity: 612

Merit: 500

Thanks for immortal4now's explanation and also Puppet's info.

I knew bitcoindifficulty.com used sipa's graph, but I didn't know it used dot-bit data before. Now, I could delete that site from my bookmark Tongue

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

dot-bit had the best prediction, but the page is down atm. bit coin difficulty . com just grabbed the number from the now defunct dot-bit page, and the chart from sipa, and then puts a banner ad on it to make money from other people's work.

Current best estimation site is this one:
http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

If you scroll down to the second chart you can see how their past predictions evolved and panned out, and although the axis is logarithmic, still pretty decent.
Its current estimate is ~400M, but just like the previous change, its probably not taking in to account the full impact of the KnC massive shipping, so this is probably too conservative.

immortal4now

full member

Activity: 612

Merit: 102

Chromia - Relational Blockchain

Quote from: Zebra on October 20, 2013, 04:55:52 AM

http://bitcoincharts.com/
The stats are working, and is showing Estimated 317394413 in 1291 blks

http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate
It gives 349942973.54871676, which is so different from the above number.

Any idea about the two different numbers? Huh

All chains shows 349696347, the big differences depend on estimate function. Like when you expect new machines will be plugged in, the difficulty is predicted higher than if you expect no new machines are added for the remaining 6 days

Zebra

hero member

Activity: 612

Merit: 500

Quote from: fattypig on October 19, 2013, 11:45:03 PM

Quote from: kendog77 on October 19, 2013, 10:08:13 AM

Surprisingly, it looks like difficulty is starting to level off a bit which is very hard to believe.

Knc is still shipping hundreds of units per day, and difficulty is a lagging indicator because a lot of hashrate was added partway through the last difficulty increase.

The current projection only shows a 6% increase.

http://bitcoindifficulty.com

This website is wrong, it shows increase of 50% in other website. Just search around and you will find it..

http://bitcoindifficulty.com
The number freezes for days and is out-dated.

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php
This is not working as well for days.

http://bitcoincharts.com/
The stats are working, and is showing Estimated 317394413 in 1291 blks

http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate
It gives 349942973.54871676, which is so different from the above number.

Any idea about the two different numbers? Huh

fattypig

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

Quote from: kendog77 on October 19, 2013, 10:08:13 AM

Surprisingly, it looks like difficulty is starting to level off a bit which is very hard to believe.

Knc is still shipping hundreds of units per day, and difficulty is a lagging indicator because a lot of hashrate was added partway through the last difficulty increase.

The current projection only shows a 6% increase.

http://bitcoindifficulty.com

This website is wrong, it shows increase of 50% in other website. Just search around and you will find it..

FeedbackLoop

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

Quote from: kendog77 on October 19, 2013, 10:08:13 AM

Surprisingly, it looks like difficulty is starting to level off a bit which is very hard to believe.

Knc is still shipping hundreds of units per day, and difficulty is a lagging indicator because a lot of hashrate was added partway through the last difficulty increase.

The current projection only shows a 6% increase.

http://bitcoindifficulty.com

That has been bugged, stuck, for a while. Click the source underneath, the sipa link, for current estimates.

Also, this is mining speculation forum stuff. That is a good forum and you should use it.

kendog77

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

Surprisingly, it looks like difficulty is starting to level off a bit which is very hard to believe.

Knc is still shipping hundreds of units per day, and difficulty is a lagging indicator because a lot of hashrate was added partway through the last difficulty increase.

The current projection only shows a 6% increase.

http://bitcoindifficulty.com

joeventura

hero member

Activity: 854

Merit: 500

Topic: Next diff ? (Read 2388 times)