Topic: Nights Watch by Afrikoin - page 111. (Read 303310 times)

More of my wave 5 theory

2 possibilities of how wave 5 will form.

H& S

Ending diagonal/ Leading diagonal

The whole scaling debacle has me perplexed, politics always ruins everything...

I actually wrote 11956 posts here. (what the f..k, that's a lot of posts!), the 2222 is "activity", not sure exactly how that's calculated.


Much less exciting than 2013. At least for me personally, but it also feels like this is the case for the community at large. In general I have the impression that in the earlier times we were still "saving the world" and stuff. Now it seems to be more about "making money". Maybe that's normal and to be expected, but for me it dampens the excitement.

Here's a list of "times" in Bitcoin history I have witnessed in order of decreasing level of excitement:

• most exciting time: definitely Jan to April 2013 ($266 high). Why? Bitcoin was making a comeback after it was called dead many times. Autumn/Winter 2011 was sooo painful and there was the fear that it was really over, that it just wouldn't work or not be accepted by anyone but a few cryptonerds and silverbugs. 2012 didn't give much hope, either. Scams, ponzis (remember pirateat40?) pricewise pretty much sideways well below the $32 ATH. The halfing didn't have any immediate effect (delayed effect expected by me, but not generally), but My god, it wasn't a good time, really. When that fear finally passed in early 2013, euphoria ensued. Clearly the first halfing did it's job and the future looked bright again. Also: cyprus and the media hype made it look possible that bitcoin might move into the consciousness of the masses as a safe haven and tool to stick it to the banksters.
• second most exciting time: Summer 2011 (32$ high). Why? Gamer kids GPU-mined the shit out of bitcoin and it became increasingly clear to me that the hopes were correct and the incentives were working really well. Also bitcoin gained some exposure in media and Roger Ver put up billboards with huge BITCOIN ads in the states. Merchants started accepting and the silkroad and gambling had emerged as viable use cases.
• third most exciting: $1 parity in early 2011. Why? I was new to bitcoin... everything was exciting, especially reaching $1 parity. Not a high, though: it kept right on going.
• fourth most exciting: November 2013 ($1163). Why? What a surprise! What is this? The Chinese? Wow, this is really going global now.
• fifth most exciting: Feb 2017 ($1xxx). Why only fifth place? Well, the biggest dampener is that this is happening at a time when Bitcoin has a really big problem and doesn't seem to be able to solve it and is bleeding users and value to alts. I can't help but think about how far we would've already gone had the scaling issue been solved (or kicked down the road) in 2015. The rally might also be largely built on sand (ETF) and/or turn out to be a pump & dump,.. too early to tell (I don't think so, btw, we still haven't seen the full effect of the latest halving in my mind)

note: these are my totally subjective personal impressions but I wouldn't be suprised if they matched the impressions of large parts of the community in general

What I like about him is that he uses rational thought, yet arrives at some exciting, astonishing stuff you would expect from maybe a yogi or some "new age hippies" who took too many psychedelics. Removes the need to believe in esoteric stuff (trust some teacher, dogma, religion,...) while you can still have nice things like a soul, "be god" ("the greatest taboo of our society"), "feel connected" and also practical things like "manage your ego", awareness, consciousness and all the stuff like that ;-). He's like a "rational guru".

(sorry to derail the thread, feel free to delete this offtopic stuff)

2222 posts!

You are legendary!

How would you describe the current excitement of this ATH versus the last one in 2013?

I am beginning to feel like a DanV   

perma bear.

Will watch the next weeks keenly.

fingers Xed!Hope I'm right

no problem. Just writing so you can correct it, not to complain.

Ha ha yes!

i love the guy! He has changed my life, opened my eyes to a whole new perspective on the universe.

Will check it out.

this quote above was from

"Time and the more it changes"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvc-sxtH7kQ&feature=share

yes. oops.

my mind was on the 18 month Yuan devaluation

or the high of 689 from May 2014.

Sorry about that.

Was writing a couple of articles at the same time.

will edit

Been listening to the guy a lot recently. He has some great insights. Like the related: "time is just a social convention". Can recommend.

ALL time high broken!

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have made history. We are witnessing the birth of history.

'I have realized that the past and future are real illusions, that they exist in the present, which is what there is and all there is.'
alan watts

Reading it...


When you put it like that the rally is really impressive!


18 months? Did you mean the Nov 2013 High? That was 51 months ago.

yes.

FOMO

Thanks for keeping this thread updated with high quality and unbiased content!

Looking to me like the chance of a handle forming on the weekly is slimming as we start to enter FOMO mode. Reuters just picked up an ATH article: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-bitcoin-idUSKBN16221V

An ETF rejection would do it..

Vinny Lingham indicators.

More.

Suggests we will get $1300

source: https://twitter.com/VinnyLingham/status/834800028975759360

I am saying this.

In the medium term, we are likely to go down to $700. After a top is hit. This top could be formed out of

a) a head and shoulder
b) a rising ending diagonal wave 5
c) a double top (truncated 5th wave)
d) a flat triple top.

In the event of

a) we break the ATH and go up to a high, a top. Then a correction down, then a right shoulder up, then down to $700

Here it is

b) we break the all time high, form a new high, then retrace 3 waves down to $1000 -$1050, then back up again past the all time high to another high marked (5 or C) on the chart below

Here

Now, the reason i say this is because, if you go down to the lower time frame 2 hour - 6 hour, you can see we are still forming a wave iii, and after that a wave iv retrace. this wave iv is not expected to go below $1000. Then a bounce back up for a wave v.

i am using v instead of 5 to distinguish the fractals on 2 hour and large chart 3 day

i am confident the 2 hour is a iii, iv, v wave unfolding because it is a wave c of a, b, c since $751, after correcting from $1139

see chart here



Finally, if you move up to the 3day and 1 week chart, we can see a larger 5 wave fractal.

$1139 was a wave 3 top, followed by a wave 4 retracement to $754

Here it is



and here is the 5 waves of the C above



Now even here we are forming a wave 5 and is what i am watching to see what form it takes between

a)
b)
c)
d)

Now, we also have information that an ETF decision is expected on or before March 11.

I am expecting it not to be approved.

So i factor it into my analysis and expect the terminal 5 top, before down to precede th ETF announcement, or immediately after

OR another unforseen event

A massive drop down could use a catalyst event.

Thats my current thought

Do you mean there is 2 different possible scenarios? or do you mean that on a long run we'll retest 700ish and on the short term we wont go lower than 1000$? and thanks again for your work, you're one of the reason i still come to this forum:)