Topic: No Asicminer Groupbuy-Thread yet? The auction is running already! - page 2. (Read 2622 times)

yeah, I'm out at those prices.  But I'd imagine at least some of the folks buying would have similar responses to myself.  Some I'm sure are doing the 'ole "pray to god I make money on this!" method, but I'd hope not for their sake.

Have to keep in mind some of these guys will have been mining for years now, and probably have a nice hefty stash of BTC that is only just now worth anything meaningful.  I know I remember the days where pool mining was optional if you had a couple GPU rigs.  50btc/day wasn't hard to achieve, and I considered myself a relative latecomer to the game.

It is going to go a lot higher than 30 something bitcoins... already getting 50 BTC bids and it's not even close to being over.

As a bidder paying way too much (and I don't think I'm going to win @ 32btc) here is my reasoning.

1) It's not to make money.  If it breaks even I'm pretty happy, if it makes more coin (which I believe it will) within 12 months I'm happy.

2) Testing to see if ASICMiner is legit and will ship immediately, how their communication is, if they can do basic things like say - fill out a customs form properly and provide tracking numbers in a timely manner.  I think we all know why this is important.  I prefer to do business with those who act professionally, and a test buy is always the first step of building such a relationship.

3) First of many - I'm obviously not going to build a mining farm at that $$$/hashrate, but getting one in-hand to "beta test" is valuable and worth a few btc in itself.  It takes time to properly build the automation necessary to run a mining farm.  While many of my scripts and tools can be translated from the current GPU cluster, I will obviously have to modify things to work with new hardware.  This includes stuff like automating adding additional machines to the pool, automatic power cycling should one lock up, etc.   These run remote in a datacenter and I have a day job, so it's important they "just work" without any hands-on from myself.

4) The novelty/coolness factor!  Why not be one of the first to have a unique piece of hardware only a few folks in the world have access to currently?  That right there is worth at least a few btc

5) Support the community.  If ASICMiner is as legit as people say, then I have no problem sending them some coin for their hard work.  I don't "invest" with shady folks who promise to ship 8 months later, these folks are unique in that they have product in-hand ready to ship and I really want to support that type of business model vs. what I've seen go down in this forum the past 6 months or so.

6) Bragging rights - so I can be the big swinging dick on the forums and rub everyone's faces in my eliteness

Edit: spelling

For the sake of argument, here's my counter. 49 days assumes the difficulty does not change. Assuming ASICMINER onlines their next 50 TH/s and Avalon's next batch of 20 TH/s ships at the same time, you are looking maybe 120 TH/s on the network. You're now talking a ~100 day ROI. This isn't too bad, and I suspect by the time the network hits 120 TH/s you will have paid off the majority of the cost for one of these boards, if ASICMINER ships within a few days of the auction ending.

However, ASICMINER plans on a 200 TH/s deployment after this 50 TH/s deployment which will then result in a 4x difficulty increase and you're now talking a 1 year ROI. None of this factors in BFL which, if they ever deliver, has I believe several hundred TH/s of orders to fulfill. In the end if you receive your board in the next month I think you'll pay 30-40 BTC. I feel the real price for these boards will be around 10-20 BTC as you're going to end up with serious issues around profitability in a few months.

I don't know why but I feel I have to play devil's advocate.

To start with, let me say that I feel the price is too high really, but people will be people.

However, why is everyone is saying break even of 49 days is something awful? This is a 10GHash miner running at about 90W. It will still be profitable past 150M difficulty (1200THash). Assuming that it does break even after 60 days, and at that point Avalon batch 2 has fully arrived, and BFL has shipped something, you will still be making money for a long time to come, assuming price doesn't plummet to $10 (in which case tons of people are going to be unhappy).

It's not the buy of the century which is why I suggested caution earlier, but it's certainly not a bad deal even at a slightly inflated price.

The lowest bid @ 32 BTC has a payoff period of 49 days at current difficulty. The problem is I think ASICMINER plans on selling/mining with another 250 TH/s in the coming months. This is a gamble but I don't think it'll payoff like 1st wave Avalon orders did.

It sounds like there will be a few more auctions and then ASICMINER will set a price and sell some more boards in bulk. At that time I might be interested in a group buy.

this is kinda sad to watch. milking a monopoly. i cannot wait until we have the avalon chips on US soil and can have our way with them proper.

Everyone's just going to bid each other up until there is almost no or exactly no profit in it (unless you hold your coins forever and hope they go up a lot in value).

To get 10Ghash out of GPUs, you need about 18-19 7970s at a cost of about 400$ each or 7600$ which is 111btc right now, plus the accompanying hardware, 5 rigs with 1kW-1.2kW PSUs and power circuits capable of handling 5kW + cooling.

I'd be interested in investing into a group-buy. I would buy a few straight up, but I lack the time/knowledge to set them up at my warehouse.

Feel free to PM me with info (to whomever starts one up )

too much for 10GHs unit, almost better buy GPU at this price, ROI is 3 months, GPU is about that much.

The auction is well beyond a price that I would feel comfortable asking if people will groupbuy.  I thought about it and placed a bid to test the waters.

Indeed. THank you for linking the auction, I don't read enough of the other forums to notice these things.

A group buy would be difficult as this is an auction, there is no set price. I would encourage people not to just blindly jack up the price by adding money infinitely into a group coffer. Partly because I would potentially like to buy in, but also because I'd hate to see mania grip people and have them later regret their choices.

Thanks for pointing out the auction.

Heres the thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/asicminer-auction-10-block-erupter-blades-ended-178275

Anyone trustworthy enough that can run a groupbuy for this? Though i dont know how the rules for such a groupbuy could look, because the asics are auctioned and 10 at a time. Highest bids win.