No more correlation with stocks? | Bitcointalksearch.org

Baofeng

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Quote from: stompix on November 10, 2022, 11:08:00 AM

Quote from: coolcoinz on November 08, 2022, 11:04:08 AM

US stocks, mainly the NASDAQ index used to be highly correlated with bitcoin but this year it looks like this is changing. It's like people don't know what to do and pump and dump bitcoin at random times, not looking at stocks at all.

[..snip..]

True, and look at today's gain;

The S&P 500 SPX, +5.54% closed up 207.80 points, or 5.5%, to 3,956.37, its highest end-of-day level since Sept. 12.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +3.70% climbed 1,201.43 points, or 3.7%, to 33,715.37, its highest closing level since August.
The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +31.35% advanced 760.97 points, or 7.4%, to 11,114.15, its biggest daily rise in percentage-point terms since March 2020.

Dow scores 1,200-point gain as stocks log biggest one-day advance since 2020 on signs inflation is softening

And bitcoin market today? A gain of 10++%, there is there huge movement today in every traditional market and crypto as well. And this is triggered by the CPI report putting the inflation rate down to 6.3%, down from 7.7%. So that is a very good news for the US economy.

suzanne5223

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Since Stock and Bitcoin are not the same markets we shouldn't expect them to always correlate even during the bearish market which is the season that the correlation between the 2 markets always occur and even if the correlation will happen there are terms and condition that will make it happen and what happened in the crypto market in the last 24hours we shouldn't expect any correlation now.

stompix

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Quote from: coolcoinz on November 08, 2022, 11:04:08 AM

US stocks, mainly the NASDAQ index used to be highly correlated with bitcoin but this year it looks like this is changing. It's like people don't know what to do and pump and dump bitcoin at random times, not looking at stocks at all.

Actually, this year is when they were more correlated than ever

Two of the dips were triggered just after the FED announcement, and the last mess is caused by a multitude of factors that normally won't happen every month or every year, elections, meta, ftx, but even if we consider this, 2022 was far more linear and uneventfully than 2021.

Quote from: coolcoinz on November 08, 2022, 11:04:08 AM

Bitcoin on the other hand is holding strong above its bottom. The bad thing is it's also constantly dipping below 20k, which should be a strong support since it was the old ATH, but in all this storm bitcoin is performing much better than stocks.

This didn't age well!

Quote from: hugeblack on November 10, 2022, 10:43:36 AM

I do not know how I reached this conclusion, but any correlation is supposed to be due to market sentiment, as there is no direct relationship between Bitcoin or stocks, otherwise the past ten years have not witnessed any pattern or correlation.

The patterns are there, both in the graph I linked above and in the topic like this one here:
Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq 100 reached ATH

Or articles like this:
Bitcoin's Correlation With Stocks Comes Back as Economic Factors Roil Markets

hugeblack

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Quote from: coolcoinz on November 08, 2022, 11:04:08 AM

US stocks, mainly the NASDAQ index used to be highly correlated with bitcoin but this year it looks like this is changing. It's like people don't know what to do and pump and dump bitcoin at random times, not looking at stocks at all.

I do not know how I reached this conclusion, but any correlation is supposed to be due to market sentiment, as there is no direct relationship between Bitcoin or stocks, otherwise the past ten years have not witnessed any pattern or correlation.

As for the reason for its occurrence now, it is because the market capacity has become large enough to be affected by global changes.

Coin_trader

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NASDAQ will not gonna relate to Bitcoin sudden movement due to the recent fiasco of FTX. Traders on stock exchange doesn’t use Bitcoin as indicator on there trade while Bitcoin traders usually use Nasdaq data as signal for there crypto trading. All happening on crypto remains on crypto market while Global stock exchange movement affects crypto as I already explained on my first statement.

This movement on crypto is very unexpected and purely manipulated. Expect no correlation on this to stock market.

Maidak

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Both are part of the economy so in terms of macro news I think they will react pretty much the same but given separate news on the two markets I don't think their price lines will be the same. Crypto news can't affect stocks, typically today's bitcoin drop was caused by FTX but this has no effect on stocks at all. But the CPI has just been released and both are rising together, It can be said that the macro information can push the two markets to move in the same direction. They are not always correlated.

OgNasty

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I don’t know… It feels pretty correlated. My crypto portfolio and stock portfolios are both getting hammered. Sure, some days they may not move the same direction but the overall trend is certainly similar. I’d say my stocks are holding up much better, but I also think crypto will recover faster. We’ll see. I think the recent activity shows that we aren’t quite to safe haven status yet, but the beginning of this bear market showed some promise.

milewilda

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Quote from: coolcoinz on November 08, 2022, 11:04:08 AM

It's also worth mentioning that stocks had their first bottom in June and then a new one in October. Now they seem to be forming a second bottom at the levels from October.
Bitcoin on the other hand is holding strong above its bottom. The bad thing is it's also constantly dipping below 20k, which should be a strong support since it was the old ATH, but in all this storm bitcoin is performing much better than stocks.

On the time i had known Bitcoin or cryptocurrency as a whole, then as a stock/forex trader, i had completely leave and focus here on crypto space.Speaking about correlation in towards price
movement then it could really be have none or have really that impact, considering market situations and fundamentals could really give out effect into each other but we cant
precisely tell if its actually the reason or not because crypto space isnt something that basing or depending on other economical situations that other markets
had been experiencing or just totally saying that it is really that independent.

GeorgeJohn

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Quote from: darkangel11 on November 08, 2022, 03:40:47 PM

Feels like a dump to me... or at least a big manipulation. Watching bitfinex and someone dumped about 500BTC in 1 minute. You don't do something like that at this low levels unless you're scared or want to crash the price. I'd have to be dying of hunger to be thinking of dumping my coins at yearly lows of 18k, but some of us have to lose in this game Wink

Actually i like your narrative, but i want you to understand that in cryptocurrency the longer the coins you invest on is dependable by the potentiality of the coins or the market strength of the coin in the market, so therefore, i believe that Bitcoin can be keep for over ten years and their is every possibility that the longer Bitcoin it's long stays the more the profit, that's my reasons i emphasis on the gravity of the coin you place on a long run investment.

KingsDen

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Quote from: darkangel11 on November 08, 2022, 03:40:47 PM

but some of us have to lose in this game Wink

The game is too risky and the lossers are always the lossers while the winners win the more. The problem of institutional traders and manipulators will always occur in the market. At this game both CZ Binance and FTX will win at last, the average investors will pay at last.

Op, this drama is not affecting stocks, gold is steadily gaining which should have interpreted into bitcoin if not these uncertainties happening in the market.

darkangel11

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Feels like a dump to me... or at least a big manipulation. Watching bitfinex and someone dumped about 500BTC in 1 minute. You don't do something like that at this low levels unless you're scared or want to crash the price. I'd have to be dying of hunger to be thinking of dumping my coins at yearly lows of 18k, but some of us have to lose in this game Wink

hosseinimr93

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Today's decrease (not dump) in bitcoin price was probably due to the panic selling caused by FTX crisis which shouldn't have any effect on stock markets.
We shouldn't expect FTX crises to cause a drop in Nasdaq index.

In the past months all the markets have been affected by FED's decisions on raising interest rates. I think that's why we have seen same movements in bitcoin and stock markets and I don't think that will change in the coming months.

coolcoinz

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US stocks, mainly the NASDAQ index used to be highly correlated with bitcoin but this year it looks like this is changing. It's like people don't know what to do and pump and dump bitcoin at random times, not looking at stocks at all.

Some examples:
September 9 -bitcoin pumped and dumped a few days later on the 13th - Here we had an inverse correlation with NASDAQ going down on 10 and 11 and up on 13. Exactly the opposite of what Bitcoin was doing.

Bitcoin pumped again on October 25 and 26 and November 4, but dumped today on the 8th. Here Bitcoin pumped with the stocks, but the NASDAQ dumped on November 1 and 2 and then went up on 3 and 4. Bitcoin reacted to the stock dump with a 2 day delay.

It's also worth mentioning that stocks had their first bottom in June and then a new one in October. Now they seem to be forming a second bottom at the levels from October.
Bitcoin on the other hand is holding strong above its bottom. The bad thing is it's also constantly dipping below 20k, which should be a strong support since it was the old ATH, but in all this storm bitcoin is performing much better than stocks.

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