Topic: Noob Here Interested in Trading Bitcoin (Read 4597 times)

I know plenty about it (I even have the bible -- Murphy's TA of FM), and I can confidently say that technical analysis has no rational basis. It is consists mostly of "theory" based on unsubstantiated speculation (Elliott Wave Principle is a great example of this), and it is a classic demonstration of confirmation bias.

No trader can explain how or why it works with both rational explanations and empirical evidence, and that puts it into the realm of magic and superstition.

Game theory, btw, is a theory of decision making. It is similar to the method that computers use to play chess.

Bitcoins not ideal for day trading, I've made money Bitcoins from it but it's been pure luck and from having the mentality I'm happy with the amount of money these coins are worth now I don't really care if I sell them or not, I might as well sell them now leave my money on the exchange if the price drops I'll buy back more.

There was a few weeks recently where the price barely dropped from about $11 until it peaked at $15. Now if you where being an overly  keen day trader you would have probably sold at around $11 then you wouldn't have had a buy back opportunity and you'd be kicking yourself you'd touched them at all (until now!). If you'd been waiting for them to hit $20 you'd be kicking yourself you didn't sell at $15 there was 50% to be made. However in that example the fact they got up to $15 so quickly could have also triggered a load of media speculation and things could have gone the other way!!

Once you start noticing patterns where you could have day traded everyone else has too and many of them are jumping on the bandwagon and reducing fluctuations in price.

Bitcoins are always getting increasing interest and fresh money so long term the graphs always going to be on the incline, unless big dumps or bad news happen. Of course Bitcoin could crash all together with some very bad news and a figurative bank rush (which has been proven to happen even on relatively small bad news).

There's a lot of people on this forum with their fancy college diplomas prancing around with their x line theories and what not, just as there's people in the UK working at the met office intellectualizing data to predict the weather. The fact remains it's more accurate (70%) to  say the weathers going to be pretty much the same tomorrow as today you just need to appreciate that before long you'll be wrong and the weather will shift.

You've got to care less and be less greedy than everyone else, but realize not trading at all might be the more profitable option.

Yep.

So you don't look at the chart but at the enthousiasm that others look at it. 

So you have no clue what the science of game theory is and yet you know this?:
How do you know this if you don't know what game theory is?

It can but only to the extend others believe it can 

2. Show me the science.
5. Chart history cannot predict future, especially in bitcoin. In any case, even f you only look at your current chart you are thinking about where you think the chart will go in the future. Everything is about where the chart will be in the future, no matter what data you care to use to predict it.
6. fading the crowd is just creating another crowd which can be played against.

Noob, huh?
Well, there WAS this nice investment trust fund that had a good payout.
But that ship sailed recently...

Lol,

Honest bob that is not really that sound of advice,

Saying technical analysis is silly would be the same as calling game theory silly, xing out either one completely is just screwing yourself in the long run, thinking that technical analysis is worthless will only lead to one thing, You never taking the time to learn it, Everything in trading is important and has a play on the market,

Game theory is not something im familiar with but ill try to get familiar with it because hell if its good then its something I can add to my repertoire but calling technical analysis silly IS silly,

Also ive learned anyone that calls themselves honest usually isnt. and throw in the furby avatar kind of tops the cake who im going to listen to, but saying to put all your money on the exchange and then gambling it all away? might as well make it fun and go to vegas
 
trade with what you can risk losing, as wave said you play with the farm your going to lose just that if you make the wrong decision, takes money to make money so make sure to always have a reserve.

Trading bitcoins is fun, sort of like how satoshidice is fun. That's about it though.

Technical analysis for bitcoin trading is just silly. Hazek is right here, it's all about game theory. If you really want to trade, keep all your coins on the exchange, and get ready to buy or sell based on how you think events surrounding bitcoin will be perceived by other bitcoin traders.

Thanks for the advice everyone.

After looking at some other markets like stocks, commodities, forex etc. it seems to me that Bitcoin is the best place for a beginner to start in trading. You don't need to go throguh a broker, the fees are minimal, there's good volatility, the fundamentals aren't as complicated, and it seems very bullish long term.

Now just waiting for the price to drop. 

There are a couple basic rules to trading successfully (compared to investing):

1. The less you trade, the more you make. Weight every trade with a risk/benefit analysis

2. Be consistent with how you trade and learn everything about the art/science of technical analysis (TA).

3. Never bet everything all at once

4. Don't bet the farm on someone's advice ... Learn to think for yourself

5. Trading is rarely logical from a fundamental viewpoint. Trade what is in front of you (what the charts say) instead of where you think/want the price to go.

6. Learn to fade the crowd.

7. Never hold onto a loss in the hopes of breaking even if the charts warn of a sell-off. Also, learn to take profits during an uptrend.

8. Think of your trading funds as play/monopoly money.

So your advice essentially is "Do as I say, not as I do!"?

"How much profit could a good trader expect to make with 2000BTC and in what sort of timeframe?"

This is completely wrong mentality.

Ill try to explain a bit.

I worked previously at a major wall street firm as a prop trader. The way you need to approach things is from a risk perspective.

Simple thing is:
10% chance to lose 5k
20% chance to lose 1k
30% chance to break even
20% chance to make 1k
20% chance to make 2k

Would you take this trade?I hope you can easily solve this problem.

From my experience, you have to focus on defense before offense. Worry about how much you can lose vs how much you can make.

This is single handily the largest error traders encounter when they start trading. You get greedy, you get slaughtered (its happened to me many times lol)

Trade 100 coins first as practice. 

Technical analysis is relevant only because other people think it's relevant.

What you really need to understand is game theory, everything else is just a subset of various factors of the game that's being played.

You can learn game theory here: http://www.academicearth.org/courses/game-theory

Lol is this even serious? Why dont you tell that to anyone on wall street and see how many people laugh at you or try to take your money

so what do you base your trading on? hopes and dreams? i think most traders will agree that none of them trade on guess they trade on statistics, patterns, news, so many factors come into the play of overall bitcoin price and your saying that technical analysis is a fancy science?

How do you know who is right or wrong? that doesnt matter this is the market regardless of the price going up or down price doesnt mean shit, you change your strategy based on whats going on, tell this to the many traders here that are making money on every down and up swing that happens,

BUT
It is something worth keeping an eye on, particularly in markets like these where there are a lot of idiots who believe in the predictive power of this rubbish trading.

I think technical analysis can be another valuable tool - although I especially doubt it's usefulness with a small market like Bitcoin and it's ability to be overwhelmed by such things as popular press exposure.

If you have some money to throw around and don't need to have your orders executed immediately I would encourage you to check out some of the exchanges with liquidity rebates. My exchange, BitMe, is considered to be in beta right now so account limits are very conservatively restricted and liquidity is naturally low, but I am offering 0.55% rebates for the time being which could help the bottom line.

Ah, the arrogance of naivete and the fallacy of winning a zero sum game. Just remember that when you trade bitcoins because you believe the price will go up (or down), you are trading with another person who is equally convinced that the price will go down (or up). How do you know that you are right and the other person is wrong?

btw, technical analysis is fantasy dressed up to look like science. It's about as valid as homeopathy and its predictive powers are on par with astrology.