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CryptoNews of the Week


- Bitcoin updated its all-time high, reaching $68,420 on Tuesday, November 9. Ethereum also set a record, rising to $4,830. The total capitalization of the crypto market at the maximum reached $2.947 trillion. Analysts attribute the current rally to the lack of supply amid increasing global interest in digital assets.

- The value of any asset can collapse at any moment, so it is not only cryptocurrencies that are in the bubble. This opinion was expressed at the Boston conference by billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller. “Cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, art, wine, securities [...] This bubble is in everything, every asset on the planet,” he said. At the same time, Druckenmiller noted that the current situation in the cryptocurrency market is not like the dot-com bubble, which, according to him, had covered significantly fewer people than the digital asset industry today.
Earlier, the famous American investor Bill Miller said that bitcoin is not a bubble, but the asset's volatility is a payment for its advantages.

- Newly elected Mayor of New York Eric Adams called in a CNN commentary on local schools to prepare students for a “new way of thinking” related to blockchain technology and digital assets. The politician noted the low awareness of young voters on this subject: “When I talked about blockchain and bitcoin, young people stopped me and asked me, 'What is this?” Adams called digital assets being "a new way of paying for goods and services around the world" as an argument for including this topic in curricula.
New York must remain a hub for innovation, he said. To this end, the newly elected mayor also plans to oblige local businesses to accept BTC and other cryptocurrencies as a payment method. In addition, he promised to receive his first three paychecks in bitcoin.

- Rahul Rai, manager of the BlockTower Capital cryptocurrency fund, believes that the versatility of the ethereum blockchain will be the main factor that will attract both developers and investors. He is confident that if ethereum manages to restart the global financial system, its market will be much larger than that of bitcoin in the future. The crypto millionaire predicts that, ETH is likely to become the first cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization which could reach several trillion dollars, as early as in mid-2022.
Analysts of the American investment bank JPMorgan made a similar statement in April. In their opinion, bitcoin is a consumer commodity. It can compete with precious metals and be seen as a store of value, but it will give way to ethereum in the long run, which is the pillar of the cryptocurrency economy.

- Apple CEO Tim Cook said he owns cryptocurrencies, using them to diversify his investment portfolio. According to him, he was interested in digital assets "for a while" and researched this topic. At the same time, the CEO of Apple emphasized that the corporation he heads is not going to invest in these financial instruments and does not plan to launch related services or integrate them as an option for paying for its goods or services.
Tim Cook noted that "there are other things that Apple is definitely looking at." It is still unknown what these words can mean. However, it was in May that the corporation opened a vacancy for a business development manager with five years of experience in the cryptocurrency industry, who is to lead the affiliate program in the segment of "alternative payments".

- Swedish regulators believe that mining bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies using the Prof-of-Work algorithm will prevent the country and the European Union from complying with the Paris Agreement on climate change. Officials noted that this process leads to the emission of up to 120 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere per year. This is equivalent to the carbon footprint of 100 million round-trip flights between Sweden and Thailand.
Regulators have called for a ban on the mining of digital assets in such an energy-intensive manner. At the same time, they believe that the use of renewable energy for mining is unreasonable, since "this energy is urgently needed for [...] large-scale production of batteries and the electrification of the transport sector." According to the University of Cambridge, the electricity used to mine 1 bitcoin is enough to drive 1.8 million kilometers in a medium-sized electric vehicle.

- “Purely bullish” sentiment reigns among retail investors regarding bitcoin. This is reported by the analytical resource Santiment with reference to the off-chain BTC indicators. This rarely plays into the hands of cryptocurrencies, analysts say.
The market, according to Santiment, has formed an “irrational trust” in bitcoin, which can lead to a price correction.
Retail traders are excited about the potential of bitcoin. As for the "bitcoin whales", the situation here is not so straightforward. On the one hand, the total volume of coins on addresses with balances of 100-10,000 BTC has decreased by almost 60,000 BTC over the past 10 days. On the other hand, it has grown significantly on addresses with balances of more than 10,000 BTC. According to experts, this may indicate that large whales are buying coins from smaller ones.

- Investment banking giant Morgan Stanley created a cryptocurrency analytics division in September. And now it has published a guide to the cryptocurrency market for its wealthiest clients. The bank's strategists conducted a detailed analysis of the various activities, sectors and trends that currently make up the highly speculative crypto industry.
Given that the total market capitalization has exceeded $2.8 trillion, and investors are increasingly interested in DeFi, NFT and stablecoins, Morgan Stanley is convinced that this will accelerate the introduction of state regulation in this area.
Morgan Stanley launched three bitcoin funds earlier this year. The minimum deposit required to participate in them is $5 million for institutional investors and $2 million for individuals.

- The top of bitcoin's current bull cycle may be the price of $96,000. This conclusion was reached by analysts of the Kraken crypto exchange. According to their research, the current Q4 has dynamics most similar to the Q4 of 2017 (correlation 0.88), which showed a yield of +220%. In general, cryptocurrency exchange experts predict that BTC will reach heights around $300,000.
The review published by Kraken also notes that November has historically been volatile, which brings the highest monthly returns. If bitcoin's current rally stops at strong resistance around $70,000, a correction can be expected. However, the drop will be no more than 20%.

- Assessing the price of the main cryptocurrency, analyst Willie Woo came to the conclusion that the zone from $50,000 to $60,000 is more than reliable as a support. Bitcoin has secured a capitalization of $1 trillion, and it is difficult to imagine that it will fall below this zone, the expert commented, referring to data from the analytical company Glassnode.

- According to a cryptocurrency analyst known as Altcoin Sherpa, altcoins will not show the expected high results in the near future due to the bullish exchange rate movement of BTC. “Pay attention to the drop in altcoin/BTC pairs if bitcoin starts moving,” he writes. "I believe that the altcoin season has not yet arrived. They will have time to prove themselves, but after the bitcoin rally cools down."
The analyst noted that bitcoin has formed a higher low of around $60,000, and while there is a possibility of a short-term decline, he expects the asset to grow significantly from current levels: “There is possibility of a short trip to $55,000. But I don't care about these minor movements. I continue to accumulate BTC, and when it starts moving, it will be fast. "

- Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen, on the other hand, believes that bitcoin will not please its supporters with explosive growth. “We started with about $28,000 to $29,000 and this was the start of 2021,¬” writes Cowen. “What have we seen so far? Not much, right? Will it be possible to show better results by the end of the year? Maybe, but I'm not sure that 2021 will be the year of a parabolic rally for bitcoin."
While the distance between the low and high of the annual range may seem significant, Cowen noted that bitcoin holders are unlikely to be thrilled with such profits: “Look what happened to bitcoin in 2021: nothing special. The profitability was about 130%, and I am sure that most holders will not even get up from the couch for 130%." "We have returned to the top of the range, so there may be some euphoria, as it was from January to March 2021,” the expert continues to reason. - There are chances of a sharp leap, but the data shows that the cycle should last at least through 2022. Looking back to 2021, I think it was, for the most part, a year of long-term re-accumulation."

- A well-known cryptanalyst under the nickname PlanB said that bitcoin could rise by 700% in early 2022. “If you look at the signals along the chain right now, I dare say that the price will reach the top in almost 6 months, this will be the end of Q1 of next year. - he thinks. - I believe that we will have a BTC rate of $100,000 at the end of the year, and then, perhaps, the currency will continue to grow up to model X (S2FX) and reach the level of $288,000, and possibly more. I would not be surprised if I saw the price rise to $400,000 - 500,000 in Q1 and Q2 of next year."
In the long term, PlanB sees BTC experiencing a hyperbolic surge.
“The old people have the money now. Real estate and gold are physical, not digital. Digital scarcity is a next generation phenomenon, so I'm sure it will happen. I see in my model (S2FX) that there is a linear relationship between scarcity and cost. Scarcity, in my opinion, is the most important factor causing this linear relationship and forcing people to invest more money."


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EUR/USD: Focus on the US Labor Market

The central events last week were the meetings of two regulators, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Traders were also certainly interested in data from the US labor market, including such an important indicator as the NFP, the number of jobs created outside the US agricultural sector.

As expected, the Fed announced the curtailment of $120 billion quantitative easing (QE) program starting this month. The purchases of treasuries will decrease by $10 billion to $70 billion in November, mortgage bonds - by $5 billion, to $35 billion. The total reduction in the volume of asset repurchase will remain at the same level of $15 billion In December.

Commenting on the results of the last meeting, the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said that the time for raising interest rates has not yet come, since the labor market has not fully recovered and, according to forecasts, this will happen by mid-2022. The Fed will be patient until then. At the same time, Powell noted that the pace of reduction of incentives can be adjusted at the beginning of next year both towards acceleration and towards deceleration, depending on economic conditions.

It can be understood from this statement of the head of the FRS that the regulator keeps a path to retreat, and one should not expect an early cut in the ultra-soft monetary policy at the moment. This interpretation pushed the stock indices up again, and Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq updated their historical highs once again.

(It is worth noting that for the first time, transactions with NASDAQ 100 (Ustec.c) helped one of the traders to become one of the most productive NordFX clients, earning a profit of $38.124 in October).

So, the US Central Bank is ready to make and adjust its decisions depending on the market situation. As for the European Central Bank, unlike the Fed, it believes the markets are wrong. ECB President Christine Lagarde said Oo Wednesday November 03 that the bank's Governing Council has clearly formulated three conditions for raising interest rates, and that these conditions will not yet be met in 2022.

Investors were not pleased with the macro statistics of the Eurozone either. Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) declined for the third month in a row, and the volume of industrial orders in Germany in September rose by only 1.3%, despite the fact that in August it fell by 8.8%. The growth in the yield of government bonds of the Eurozone countries, caused by their active sale, which reminds the markets of the prospects of the debt crisis, looks alarming as well.

All these factors put significant pressure on the common European currency and led to its fall, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair renewed its October lows.

Focusing on the recovery of the labor market, the head of the FRS outlined the priorities for his organization. Against this background, the dynamics of NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) becomes even more important. This US non-farm employment report is traditionally released on the first Friday of the month, this time November 05. According to its data, the number of new jobs in October was 531K (with the forecast of 425K and the previous value of 312K). In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 4.6% from 4.8% in September. Stock indices soared even higher against this background. As for the EUR/USD pair, after a correction, it completed the weekly session at 1.1567.

Naturally, most indicators on D1 face south. These are 100% among the trend indicators. The same could be said about oscillators. However, 10% of them have taken a neutral position, 10% are in the oversold zone and another 10% turned to the north at the very end of the week.

As for the experts, 25% vote for the growth of the pair, the same number is for its fall, and 50% is for the sideways movement. Support levels are 1.1535, 1.1500, 1.1485, 1.1425 and 1.1250. Resistance levels are 1.1575, 1.1615, 1.1665, 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

As for the upcoming release of macroeconomic statistics, data on the state of the consumer markets in Germany and the United States will be released on Wednesday, November 10, and the preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan will be announced on Friday, November 12. This index is an indicator of the US consumers’ confidence in economic growth and assesses their willingness to spend money.

GBP/USD: Shock from the Bank of England

The threat of stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, is very dangerous for the British economy, which is still under pressure from the Brexit effects. According to forecasts of experts from the Bank of England, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to about 5% by April 2022 and will decrease to the target level of 2% as late as by the end of 2022. These are very high rates, and a few days before the meeting of the Bank of England, its head Andrew Bailey said that with such indicators, it may be necessary to act and raise interest rates more quickly than originally planned. As a result, the markets believed that the regulator would raise the key rate in November and... were deceived in their expectations.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England voted at its meeting on Thursday November 04 by seven votes to two to keep the interest rate at the previous level of 0.1%, and by six votes to three to keep the volume of asset purchases at £ 895 billion. Disappointed investors responded to the regulator with the collapse of the pound. The GBP/USD pair reached a local low, falling 270 points to 1.3425. The last chord of the week sounded at 1.3490.

Andrew Bailey stated in response to criticism that he misled investors, that "we never promised a November rate hike" and that "it is not my job to manage the markets." Sylvana Tenreiro, an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, who believes that the Central Bank should not react to short-term shock situations and the problem of supply of goods will become less acute next year, spoke soothingly. The opposite position was taken by Deputy Head of the Bank Dave Ramsden, who said that he voted for a rate increase, as the shortage of labor is becoming more and more noticeable.

As some analysts note, there are currently growing expectations that London will decide to apply Article 16 of the EU Leaving Agreement. It is possible within the framework of this article for one of the parties to suspend part of the Brexit transaction if its further execution creates serious economic or other difficulties. That said, the EU's response could be more radical than the UK government expects. And this situation has and will continue to exert additional pressure on the pound.

The preliminary data on the UK GDP for the Q3 will be released on Thursday, November 11. They may affect market sentiment along with macro statistics from the US. In the meantime, analysts' opinion is as follows: 55% of experts bet on bears to win, 35%, along with graphical analysis on D1, support bulls, and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position.

Among the oscillators on D1, 75% is colored red, 25% indicates that the pair is oversold. Trend indicators are 100% red. Support levels are 1.3470, 1.3420, 1.3380, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3510, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

USD/JPY: Sideways Trend Again

The charts of the last three weeks showed that the upward momentum of the USD/JPY pair has dried up, and it has moved to its favorite activity: the sideways trend, limited by the range of 113.40-114.40. The yen rose on the back of the 10-year Treasury yield decline to 1.53% and continued to strengthen at the end of the working week, finishing at the lower boundary of this channel.

The current situation is clearly confirmed by the spread of expert opinions and indicator readings. Among analysts, 50% expect the pair to return to the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel, 25% to move along the 113.00 Pivot Point, and 25% to fall to the 112.00 area. It should be noted that, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of supporters of the latter increases to 50%.

There is a complete discordance among the oscillators on D1: 35% look north, 40% south, 15% give oversold signals and the remaining 10% turn neutral grey. There is a neutrality among the trend indicators: 50% side with the green ones, the other 50% side with the red ones. The resistance levels are 113.70, 114.40, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.25, further targets are 112.00 and 111.65.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Ethereum Renews Its High


It was 13 years ago, on October 31, 2008, that a person or a group of people known as Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper. The nine-page technical document described how the peer-to-peer payment system worked that would revolutionize the financial technology world. The bitcoin network was launched in January 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared in April 2011, and the public was never able to find out who wrote these 9 pages, which marked the beginning of a multi-billion-dollar industry. More precisely, multi-trillion, since the total crypto market capitalization reached a new all-time high last week, exceeding $2.7 trillion.

But the share of bitcoin has decreased again: its dominance index fell over the week from 44.15% to 42.84%. The historical record of $ 66,925, set by bitcoin on October 20, has not yet been broken. The bulls did try to update this result on Tuesday November 02, but having reached the $64,260 high, the BTC/USD pair reversed and rolled back to $60,000. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Greed zone at 73 points (70 weeks ago).

While the main cryptocurrency is marking time, the attention of many investors has turned to altcoins. Ripple rose in price (XRP/USD), and the ETH/USD pair updated its all-time high once again, reaching $4.657 on Wednesday November 03.

Among the top altcoins, Ethereum attracts with its long history and use in many projects. The main driver of its growth in recent months has been the burning of coins for transactions on the network and the fact that the rate of their burning outstrips the rate of their production. However, after the activation of the London hard fork and the latest Ethereum 2.0 Altair update, commissions on the network have almost doubled, but the developers promise to solve this problem.

The past week is the sixth in a row since the beginning of the rise in the rate of Ethereum, which has added 75% since September 21. This token appears now to be targeting the $5,000 level. And this is not a limit. So a reputable cryptanalyst known as CryptosRUs predicts that ETH will soon reach $10,000. Moreover, he is confident that it is almost the last opportunity now to purchase this altcoin at a price below this mark. The forecast of Goldman Sachs specialists, who do not exclude that the ETH/USD pair may rise to $8,000 by the end of the year, is somewhere in the middle.

Of course, it would be unfair to say that the market has completely forgotten about bitcoin. Many investors and experts still single out this cryptocurrency. Whales added 142,000 BTC to their wallets in the last week of October alone, according to Chainalysis.

“Bitcoin is mathematics, mathematical purity” that allows it to maintain a level of predictability. Therefore, it outperforms the US dollar. This was stated by Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak in a recent interview with Yahoo Finance. In his opinion, regulators can create new paper notes on their whim, and therefore it is difficult to predict inflation of fiat money.

The author of the book “Rich Dad Poor Dad”, writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki, like Steve Wozniak, has criticized the administration of President Joe Biden and has declared his distrust the US federal government. He believes that the authorities "rip off people", promote inflation and do not try to reduce it. Get ready for an economic collapse and a new depression. Be smart. Buy gold, silver and bitcoin,” Kiyosaki urged. “I love bitcoin because I don't trust the Fed, Treasury, and Wall Street.”

Chinese crypto analyst Willie Woo said in an interview with Bitcoin Fundamentals that the current “bullish” growth cycle for bitcoin is very different from previous similar periods. Woo noted that the latest wave of BTC accumulation began at the end of last year, when institutional investors began to enter the crypto market, aiming at the long-term accumulation of digital assets. This factor, in his opinion, indicates that the current growth cycle will be longer, will last another six months or a year, and the price of bitcoin during this period will exceed $100,000.

The forecast of analysts at JPMorgan Chase looks much more modest. Cryptocurrencies can continue to grow, but are unlikely to be stable, so they cannot be recommended as a key asset, JPMorgan says. As for bitcoin, its fair value is estimated by JPMorgan Chase analysts at $35,000. They came to such an assessment based on a comparison with gold, noting that the volatility of the cryptocurrency is about 4 times higher than that of the precious metal. However, if BTC's volatility is halved, the $73,000 target will "look reasonable."

PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel doubts as well that now is the right time to buy BTC. “You know, bitcoin is already worth $60,000 and I'm not sure it should be bought aggressively. But, of course, this tells us that we are in a crisis moment,” Bloomberg quoted him as saying. At the same time, Thiel expressed regret once again that he had not invested more money in the first cryptocurrency when its price was significantly lower.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


- Film director Quentin Tarantino will present a collection of seven NFTs (non-fungible token) based on the 1994 film Pulp Fiction. Each NFT contains an uncut movie scene and bonus content available only to the owner, including original handwritten pages of the script, Tarantino audio commentary and other details about the movie and the director. The auction will be held on the OpenSea trading platform and will be announced later.
NFT is a non-fungible unique token. NFTs work on the blockchain, they first appeared back in 2017 in the Ethereum system. Secret NFT technology allows content creators to decide which collectibles are public and which are private to owners.

- Burger King fast food chain will give away cryptocurrency prizes to visitors in the United States. The prize pool contains 20 BTC, 200 ETH and 2 million DOGE. it is required to spend more than $5 at Burger King to participate in the draw.

- As bitcoin's math and logic do not allow copying or forgery of the first cryptocurrency, it surpasses the US dollar. This was stated by Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak in a recent interview with Yahoo Finance. He also noted the decentralized nature of digital gold, which allows it to maintain a level of predictability that is difficult to achieve with the US dollar. In his opinion, regulators can create new paper notes on their whim, and therefore it is difficult to predict inflation.
“Look at the US dollar, the government can create new banknotes and borrow, it's like it will never be corrected. Bitcoin is mathematics, mathematical purity. Another bitcoin can never be created,” said Steve Wozniak.

- The author of the book “Rich Dad Poor Dad”, writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki, like Steve Wozniak, has criticized the administration of President Joe Biden and has declared his distrust the US federal government. He believes that the authorities "rip off people", promote inflation and do not try to reduce it.
“Inflation undermines the income of the poor. Inflation makes the rich richer. Biden and the feds are corrupt. Get ready for an economic collapse and a new depression. Be smart. Buy gold, silver and bitcoin,” said Kiyosaki, who has always been very enthusiastic about bitcoin. “I love bitcoin because I don’t trust the Fed, the Treasury or Wall Street,” this investor said.

- The development team does not stop working on improving the Ethereum network, which inspires experts to make the most daring price predictions. So a reputable cryptanalyst known as CryptosRUs predicts that ETH will soon reach $10,000. Moreover, he is confident that now is almost the last opportunity to purchase ETH at a price below this mark.
Among the reasons for the increase in the price of this altcoin, we can consider the recent activation of the London hard fork. In addition, thanks to the latest Ethereum Altair update, a new all-time high of almost $4,500 was set on October 29. However, after this update, network fees have almost doubled, which cannot be considered a factor accompanying the growth of ETH.

- Cryptotrader hamster Mr. Goxx has its own collection of non-fungible tokens (NFT) called Goxx Capital. The tokens are made in the form of animated insert cards.
With NFT sales, the “business partner” (aka owner) of the hamster plans to assemble a new “trade office” for his pet. According to him, the updated workspace will expand the functionality for the hamster's activities, as well as provide more interactive elements for the so-called "wheel of intentions" and "decision tunnels".
Recall that the trading process boils down to the following: Mr. Goxx spins the wheel of intentions, on the basis of which one of 30 tokens is selected. Then the hamster must run through one of two decision-making tunnels: to buy or to sell a token. Mr.Goxx showed a profit of almost 50% in early September. Bitcoin, for example, was only 41% higher, the S&P 500 brought 6-7% to investors, and the Katie Wood ARK Innovation fund was 5%.

- The high price of bitcoin indicates that the economy is facing real inflation, and the rise in prices is not a temporary phenomenon. This opinion was expressed by PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, Bloomberg writes. “You know, bitcoin is already worth $60,000 and I'm not sure it should be bought aggressively. But, of course, this tells us that we are in a crisis moment," Thiel said and expressed regret once again that he had not invested more money in the first cryptocurrency.

- It was 13 years ago, on October 31, 2008, that a person or a group of people known as Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper. The nine-page whitepaper described how the peer-to-peer payment system worked that would revolutionize the financial technology world. Nakamoto summarized the main characteristics of the first cryptocurrency in the foreword to this document: “A fully peer-to-peer version of electronic money would allow sending online payments directly from one side to the other, bypassing financial institutions.”
The bitcoin network was launched in January 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared in April 2011, and the public was never able to find out who wrote these 9 pages, which marked the beginning of a multi-billion-dollar industry.

- Chinese crypto analyst Willie Woo said in an interview with Bitcoin Fundamentals that the current “bullish” growth cycle for bitcoin is very different from previous similar periods. Woo noted that the latest wave of BTC accumulation began at the end of last year, when institutional investors began to enter the crypto market, aiming at the long-term accumulation of digital assets. This factor indicates that the current growth cycle will be longer, will continue for another six months to a year, and the price of bitcoin during this period will exceed $100,000, Woo predicts.

- TV presenter, best-selling author and former hedge fund manager Jim Cramer said during the Mad Money program on CNBC that he supports investors buying cryptocurrencies if they are aware of the risks associated with this asset class.
According to him, all the arguments in favour of cryptocurrencies are based on the “theory of a greater fool”, according to which there is always someone who is ready to buy an asset for a higher price, expecting to quickly resell it at a profit to someone else. However, when the "fools" are no longer found, the value of assets drops sharply. If people understand this, why not speculate in cryptocurrencies, Kramer said.
“I bought bitcoin and ethereum not for protection from inflation,” the TV presenter admitted. - To be honest, it was a kind of gambling for me. I was just playing on the psychology of the crowd, and I have no idea why the rate of these crypto assets went up. Most likely, there are a lot of overly enthusiastic people who want to sell them for a higher price. I have no attachment to ethereum, but I keep it, because millions of even bigger fools can buy it,” Kramer said.
Previously, he preferred to invest in gold and stocks, but now he believes that it is important to diversify the investment portfolio, 5% of which can be bitcoin or ethereum.

- Investors should invest in hedge funds and real estate, as traditional assets, including stocks and bonds, will lag behind them in the next year and will show a return of only 5%, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase.
Cryptocurrencies can continue to grow, but are unlikely to be stable, so they cannot be recommended as a key asset, JPMorgan says. At the same time, the growth of cryptocurrencies is projected at 15% per annum, which is twice the expectations from hedge funds and exceeds the real estate sector with 12.5%.
As for bitcoin, analysts estimate its fair value at $35,000. They came to such an assessment based on a comparison with gold, noting that the volatility of the cryptocurrency is about 4 times higher than that of the precious metal. If the BTC volatility drops by half, the $73,000 target will “look reasonable”.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in October 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

October Results: Pound, Gold and Bitcoin Prioritized Again, NASDAQ 100 Is the Newcomer1

The undisputed leader at the end of the month was a trader from India, account No. 1556XXX, whose profit amounted to 169,533 USD. This solid result was achieved in the British Pound (GBP/USD) trades.

The second step of the podium was taken by a representative of China, account No.1593XXX, with a result of 38,124 USD.Their profits were mainly derived from operations with gold(XAU/USD), bitcoin ( BTC/USD), as well as withNASDAQ 100 (USTEC.C). By the way, this is the first time since the beginning of the year when a person who makes trades in stock indices is included in the top three.

The third place is taken by a trader from Vietnam, account No.1416XXX, who earned 37,116 USD in October on transactions on the XAU/USD and EUR/AUD pairs.

The passive investment services:

- in CopyTrading, as before, one can mark the KennyFXPRO signal, The Compass. It has shown an increase of 108% since November 2020. At first glance, this is not such an impressive result (although it is ten times higher than the interest on bank deposits). But combined with a moderate maximum drawdown of 22%, this signal becomes quite attractive for subscribers who have invested over 75,000 USD in it.

TheSkyAngle signal can also be noted. It showed a profit of 76.64% in just the last two weeks of October with a maximum drawdown of 10.47%. This very good result was obtained mainly in transactions with the EUR/JPY and GBP/USD pairs. However, the signal has one serious drawback: it has a very short lifespan. Therefore, those wishing to subscribe to it should be extremely careful.

Of course, there are long-livers in the CopyTrading service. For example, the signal MF989923, which is based on one of the Academy's MasterforeX-V trading systems. It has a lifespan of almost 2,500 days and has generated 510% profit (an average gain of 0.2% per day). However, it must be borne in mind that it has had serious drawdowns reaching 66% on several occasions in almost 7 years of the signal's life.

- In the NordFX PAMM service, as well as in CopyTrading, you can mark the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. They have increased their capital by 53% on their account KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA since january 2021, with a drawdown of less than 16%.

Investors who prefer moderate returns with moderate risk may also pay attention to TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account, which has gained 34.5% since April 03 with a drawdown of 16.7%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, 8,841 USD, was credited in October to a partner from Vietnam, account No.1258XXX;
- the next is a partner from India, account No.1504XXX, who earned 4,132 USD in a month;
- and, finally, a partner from China, account No.1336XXX, who received 4,087 USD as a reward, closes the top three.

***

And summing up the results of the month, it should be reminded that traders have received another great opportunity to earn money. NordFX has a Super Lottery for NordFX clients this year, where many cash prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000 will soon be drawn.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


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EUR/USD: After ECB Meeting, Ahead of Fed Meeting

Last time the EUR/USD review was titled “In a state of uncertainty”, as confirmed by the previous week. Starting at 1.1643, the pair dipped to 1.1581, then rose to 1.1691, and ended the session with a new drop, this time to the 1.1560 level.

The main event last week was the European Central Bank meeting. As expected, the interest rate remained unchanged at 0%. Therefore, the commentary of the ECB management on monetary policy was of much greater interest. After the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England outlined the timing of the start of curtailing their monetary stimulus (QE) programs, investors wanted to hear similar statements from the ECB. But… they didn’t hear them: the regulator’s press release practically repeated the previous one of September.

According to Bloomberg insider information, there is currently a split among ECB Governing Council members. First and foremost, this concerns estimating the extent of the upcoming inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde's assurances that the recent rise in inflation to 3.4% is temporary does not suit all. Even more so, they look doubtful against Germany's 28-year inflation peak (4.6%) and Spain's 37-year peak (5.5%). The statement of the bank's management that the analysis does not confirm the need to raise the interest rate in 2022 also looks dubious.

All of the above has led investors to feel that the withdrawal of monetary stimulus in the Eurozone will not begin until late 2022 and early 2023. Against this backdrop, the European currency should have to weaken sharply. But if we look at the chart, we will see a sharp increase of the EUR/USD pair: the EUR/USD pair rose 110 points on October 28. Surprising but true!

The main reason lies in the macro statistics from the US, which came out at the same time as the ECB chief's press conference began. According to preliminary estimates, US GDP in Q3 will be 2.0%, well below not only the previous 6.7% but also the 2.7% forecast. The growth rate of the US economy fell from 12.2% to 4.9%. The figures tempered investor optimism and caused the dollar to weaken, with the USD index (DXY) falling from 93.86 to 93.33, and the Dow Jones and S&P500 stock indices almost returning to their historic highs. Falling gas and coal prices also played against the dollar, reducing the likelihood of an energy collapse in Europe.

At the end of the week, on Friday October 29, the dollar was able not only to win back losses, but also pushed the EUR/USD pair down to three-week lows. Investor positioning was key to this after the release of the US Fed's report on economic conditions, known as the Beige Book, ahead of the regulator's meeting next week. “With the Fed set to move to reduce asset purchases and flexibility, which is likely to be a key feature of future policy, the risk/return ratio becomes more positive for the dollar,” TD Securities analysts explained.

The dollar was also supported by a monthly gain on risk assets, a rise in bond yields to 1.672% (the highest since May) and good macro statistics from the US: the rise in the underlying PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) remained at 3.6% in September, in line with August. However, the European statistics caused another anxiety attack at investors, showing an acceleration in inflation and a sharp slowdown in GDP growth.

Despite the fluctuations of EUR/USD over the past few weeks, 100% of the trend indicators on D1 are looking south. But among oscillators, these fluctuations caused a certain amount of confusion: only 40% of them point south, 30% look north and 30% east. There is no unity among experts either. 30% vote for the growth of the pair, 55% for its fall, and 15% for lateral movement. Support levels are 1.1520, 1.1485, 1.1425 and 1.1250. Resistance levels are 1.1580, 1.1625, 1.1670, 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

As for important events and the release of macroeconomic statistics, there will be a lot of both in the coming week. German retail sales volumes and the ISM business activity index in the US manufacturing sector will be released on Monday November 01. The value of ISM in the service sector, as well as the ADP report on the level of employment in the US, will become public on Wednesday November 03. We will have such a key event as the Fed meeting on the same day, including the interest rate decision, as well as comments from its management on the US Central bank monetary policy. Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, is scheduled to speak on Wednesday and Thursday.

As usual, the first Friday of the month, November 05, will see data from the US labour market, including such an important indicator as the NFP, the number of jobs created outside the US agriculture sector. Eurozone retail sales statistics will be released the same day.

GBP/USD: Ahead of Fed and Bank of England Meetings

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which reflects the retail price performance of goods and services that make up the consumer basket of United Kingdom residents, and is a key inflation indicator, was +0.3% in September (vs. +0.4% and +0.7% in August). On a year-on-year basis, the UK CPI grew by +3.1% (vs. +3.2% forecast and +3.2% in August). Although indicators showed inflation slowing in September, analysts expect it to accelerate sharply in October due to high energy prices, utility tariffs and a partial increase in VAT.

The coming week is not only the week of the Fed meeting, but also of the Bank of England, which will take place on Thursday November 04. According to a number of experts, the slowdown in inflation in September is unlikely to force the UK regulator to stop raising its key interest rate in the coming months (now at 0.1%).

The threat of stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, is highly dangerous for the British economy, which is still being pressured by the effects of Brexit. According to the Bank of England experts, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to around 5% by April 2022 and fall to the 2% target as late as by the end of 2022. This is a very fast pace, and the head of the central bank, Andrew Bailey, has recently said that at such rates, it may be necessary to act and raise interest rates faster than originally planned.

Many investors now believe that the interest rate on the pound could reach 0.45% by the end of 2021 and 0.95% by June 2022, which is supposed to lead to a stronger pound. However, in the current substandard situation, things are not so simple, and the curtailment of monetary stimulus could lead to a deterioration in the British economy, deepening crisis and a drop in living standards of the UK residents. Retail sales volumes (excluding fuel), as determined by the Office for National Statistics, have shown a year-on-year decline of -0.9% to -2.5% for three consecutive months, suggesting that people have started saving.

The last week and a half shows that the bullish momentum on the GBP/USD pair that started on September 30 has dried up and, thanks to the same factors listed for EUR/USD, the pound ended the trading session at 1.3685 a month later.

Intrigue as to how the market will react to plans by the US Fed and Bank of England to wind down QE remains for now. But it's safe to say that coming Wednesday and Thursday, when these regulators meet, promise to be very interesting, high volatility is guaranteed. At the same time, 40% of experts are betting on the bears winning, 30% along with the graphical analysis on D1 support the bulls, and the remaining 30% have taken a neutral position.

As many as 50% of the oscillators are neutral grey. The readings of the rest oscillators are divided equally: 25% for the red and 25% for the green. As for trend indicators on D1, reds win with a clear advantage, they are 80%. Support levels are 1.3765, 1.3675, 1.3600, 1.3575, 1.3525 and 1.3400. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3725, 3770, 1.3810, 1.3835, 1.3900 and 1.4000.

USD/JPY: The Yen Has Its Own Path


Charts from the past two and a half weeks show that the upward momentum has dried up for USD/JPY as well. Only if, in the case of GBP/USD, the dollar has been weakening against the pound since the end of September, on the contrary, it has been strengthening against the yen.

The Japanese currency is a safe haven currency for investors. And its recent weakening fits logically into a stable inverse relationship between the yen rate and the growing risk appetite of the market. It should also be added that another trigger for the yen's weakening was the shift in Japan's trade balance towards imports, due to a spike in energy and metal prices. And, of course, one cannot ignore such an important factor influencing the USD/JPY quotes as the yield of US Treasury bonds. However, it is also directly related to the market's risk-aversion.

USD/JPY upgraded its four-year high on October 20 to reach 114.70 high, the very point where it was in November 2017. After that, the enthusiasm of the bulls subsided, and the pair went down, ending last week at 113.95.

At this stage, 70% of analysts expect the pair to first return to the 113.00 horizon, and then drop to the 111.00-112.00 zone by the end of November. The remaining 30% of experts adhere to the opposite point of view, expecting the next update of multi-year highs and the rise of the pair to the range 115.00-116.00.

The resistance levels are 114.35, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support levels are 113.85, 113.40 and 113.25, then 112.00 and 111.65.

As for the events of the coming week, the release of the report of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Tuesday November 02 could be noted. However, it is likely the market will react to it fairly calmly. Especially since this event will take place just one day before the US Fed meeting, which will be the focus of all investors and speculators.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Ethereum Renews Its High

The historical record of $66,925 set by bitcoin on October 20 has not yet been broken. The imminent correction that followed taking that height brought forward a fierce bull and bear fight. The forces proved to be about equal. As a result, after swaying in the $57,590—63,645 range, the pair returned on Friday October 29 to roughly where it had been seven days earlier, to the $62,000 zone. The total crypto market capitalization is also unchanged at $2.6 trillion, but bitcoin's share has decreased somewhat: its dominance index has dropped from 45.94% to 44.15%. This was due to capital flows into altcoins, primarily ethereum, which rose from 18.72% to 19.61% over the week. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Greed zone at 70 points (75 weeks ago).

Most analysts believe that the upward trend of the BTC/USD pair will continue. This is supported by statistics. Coin outflows from the exchanges have resumed, according to Glassnode. Bitcoin network hash rate has almost recovered after China's mining ban, which caused it to drop by 50%. At the same time, bitcoin supply is quite low: miners and investors are holding their reserves in the expectation of further price growth.

The macroeconomic background is also favourable. The New York Stock Exchange continues to list bitcoin-related ETFs. True, there is information that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to reject Valkyrie's application to launch a leveraged ETF. Other of the 40 filings currently under consideration by the SEC, apart from applications to launch ETFs on bitcoin futures, will not receive the green light either. But those that will be approved are quite enough to ensure a solid inflow of funds into this sector from investors saving their capital from inflation.

The good news for BTC is that payments giant Mastercard will soon announce cryptocurrency support on its network. This includes bitcoin wallets, credit and debit cards, and loyalty programs where points can be converted into digital assets.

The American company Walmart Inc., which operates the world's largest wholesale and retail chain, has also turned to the main cryptocurrency and launched a pilot program to sell bitcoins in its stores.

Crypto trader and analyst known as Altcoin Sherpa is confident that bitcoin will not fall below the $54,000 zone where the strong support is located and, pushed back from it, will update its historic high in November, exceeding $80,000.

Another prominent analyst, PlanB, also expects a parabolic increase in the price of bitcoin. As a reminder, PlanB is the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which predicts the price of the flagship cryptocurrency, and which allowed it to accurately predict BTC prices in August and September. And if bitcoin continues to follow this model, it will reach $98,000 in November and $135,000 in December. “So, it's going to be a really good Christmas this year,” declared PlanB.  At the same time, the expert believes that the flagship cryptocurrency is unlikely to be able to avoid another major correction that historically follows each major bull cycle.

Another popular cryptanalyst and trader Lark Davis expects that “the next six months are likely to be mega-crazy for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies! Many of you will get the chance to completely change your financial destiny,” he tweeted.

Davis does not advise investors to get carried away with speculative altcoins and NFTs in the current situation, but to bet on time-tested coins. “Let the winners win, double and even triple your positions and cut the losers. Do it mercilessly, there is no point in keeping dubious assets,” writes Lark Davis.

In his view, BTC could increase investor savings by 20 times over the next 10 years, but individual altcoins could generate comparable returns much sooner. “Altcoins are for making money, BTC is for storage,” the expert explains.

The leading altcoin seemed to have heard Lark Davis's words. While bitcoin was hovering around $60,000-61,000, ethereum renewed its all-time high, peaking at $4,447 on October 29. The previous record of $4,360 was set back in May.

The ETH/USD pair is bursting up for the fifth week in a row, having added more than 65% since September 21. The reason for this growth is the coin-burning process that takes ETH tokens out of circulation. Another factor that pushed this altcoin up was the news of the successful start of the Ethereum 2.0 Altair update for the Beacon Chain, which brought the moment of the full launch of ETH 2.0 even closer.

And another piece of news that will be of interest for those who think not only about their future, but also the future of their children and loved ones. Russian insurance company Renaissance Life and InDeFi SmartBank have started jointly developing smart contracts to help inherit digital assets. With the growth of the cryptocurrency market, the problem of inheriting such property has become quite acute. Since cryptocurrencies are decentralized, in the event of the death of the owner, the heirs simply cannot dispose of the property of the deceased without access to the cryptocurrency wallet. Smart contracts under development should solve this problem by enabling the client to transfer the disposal of digital assets to their designated heir in the event of their death.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


- Investors committed a record $1.47 billion to crypto funds during the week of October 16-22, and $8 billion since the beginning of the year. Such data is contained in the CoinShares report. The previous record of $670 million was set in February. Amid the digital gold's historical high above $67,000, the total amount of funds in cryptocurrency based financial products reached $79.2 billion during the week. Analysts attributed this dynamic to the successful launch in the US of two Bitcoin ETFs from ProShares and Valkyrie Investments.
As a result, inflows to bitcoin-based funds totaled $1.45 billion, Solana, Cardano, Binance Coin totaled $8.1 million, $5.3 million and $1.8 million, respectively. At the same time, the outflow of funds from ethereum products has continued for the third week, totaling $1.4 million.

- US Senator Rand Paul called fiat money "unreliable" and expressed optimism about the prospects for cryptocurrencies in the global financial system. “Public money is so unreliable! I began to wonder if cryptocurrency could serve as the world's money as more people lose confidence in the government,” he said.
Reporters note that this kind of message made Rand Paul "a rock star in the eyes of young people" during the 2016 presidential campaign. It was notable for the fact that the Kentucky senator accepted bitcoin donates.

- Several email providers were subjected to DDoS attacks, for the termination of which unknown persons demanded a ransom in bitcoins. Representatives of the Posteo email service confirmed the information. “But we will not pay the specified amount,” Posteo said in a statement. “Companies should not allow criminals to blackmail them under any circumstances. Otherwise, they will be even more attractive to them.”
The RunBox service also announced the attack later. And they also clarified that "they have never paid the criminals" and do not plan to start." In addition to email providers, UK VoIP telephony provider Voipfone and game server provider Sparked were also targeted by DDoS attacks.

- Payment giant Mastercard will soon announce support for cryptocurrencies in its network. CNBC reports. This includes bitcoin wallets, credit and debit cards, and loyalty programs where points can be converted into digital assets. According to Mastercard Executive Vice President of Digital Partnerships Sherry Haymond, the initiative will allow banks to compete with cryptocurrency exchanges.

- Crypto trader and analyst known as Altcoin Sherpa is confident that bitcoin should bounce off the $54,000-58,000 zone where strong support is located, and renew its all-time high, exceeding $80,000, in November.
Another well-known analyst, PlanB, also expects a parabolic rise in the price of bitcoin. As a reminder, PlanB is the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which predicts the price of the flagship cryptocurrency, and which allowed it to accurately predict BTC prices in August and September. And if bitcoin continues to follow this pattern, “we'll be out $98,000 as early as November and $135,000 in December,” PlanB said. “So, it's going to be a really good Christmas this year.” At the same time, the analyst believes that the flagship cryptocurrency is unlikely to be able to avoid another major correction that historically follows each major bull cycle.

- 150 people have been arrested worldwide as a result of a global special operation against illegal trading on the DarkMarket Internet platform. Law enforcement agencies from nine countries participated in Operation Dark HunTOR. It is one of the most large-scale investigations in Europol's history, assisted by U.S. authorities. Some $31 million in cash and bitcoins, 234 kilograms of drugs and 45 weapons were seized. Moreover, 67 people have been arrested in the US, 47 in Germany, 24 in the UK. Many of the detainees, Europol said, were targets of particular importance.
Europol says the investigation was a follow-up to a raid by German police against the DarkMarket platform, which was operated by an Australian citizen. Moreover, as part of the same operation, several other illegal trading platforms have been shut down in Italy, four administrators have been arrested and €3.6 million in cryptocurrency seized.

- The American company Walmart Inc., which operates the world's largest wholesale and retail chain, has launched a pilot program to sell bitcoins. Bloomberg reports that the pilot project includes 200 Coinstar ATMs at Walmart stores in the United States. Cryptocurrency will be available in more than 8,000 of these bitcoin ATMs in future. The commission will be 4% when buying BTC and 7% when cashing out.

- Russian insurance company Renaissance Life and InDeFi SmartBank have started jointly developing smart contracts to help inherit digital assets. With the growth of the cryptocurrency market, the problem of inheriting such property has become quite acute. Since cryptocurrencies are decentralized, in the event of the death of the owner, the heirs simply cannot dispose of the property of the deceased without access to the cryptocurrency wallet.
Special smart contracts will enable the client to transfer the disposal of their digital assets to the beneficiary in the event of their death.
The service is expected to have at least 500,000 users in the coming year.

- Popular cryptanalyst and trader Lark Davis believes that “the next six months are likely to be mega-crazy for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies! Many of you will get the chance to completely change your financial destiny,” he tweeted.
Davis does not advise investors to get carried away with speculative altcoins and NFTs in the current situation, but to bet on time-tested coins. “Let the winners win, double and even triple your positions and cut the losers. Do it mercilessly, there is no point in keeping dubious assets,” writes Lark Davis.
In his view, BTC could increase investor savings by 20 times over the next 10 years, but individual altcoins could generate comparable returns much sooner. “Altcoins are for making money, BTC is for storage,” the expert explains.

- Former Facebook manager Frances Hogan, who made accusations against this corporation, said that investing in cryptocurrencies allows her not to worry about her financial situation. 'As for the foreseeable future, I'm fine. I bought cryptocurrencies at the right time,” she told The New York Times, noting that she moved to Puerto Rico not only to improve her own health, but also to join her “crypto friends”.
Recall that Hogan turned over tens of thousands of internal Facebook documents to journalists and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Among other things, she accused the company of inciting hatred and ignoring teen safety issues. “I have come across a lot of social networks, but Facebook was doing much worse than the rest,” she said. - On Facebook, I have seen conflicts of interest between the public and the corporation over and over again. And Facebook has repeatedly chosen its interests, including to increase earnings."


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EUR/USD: In a State of Uncertainty

When giving their forecast a week ago, 20% of analysts were in favour of a decline in EUR/USD, 50% voted for it to rise, and 30% were neutral. As a result, 80% of those who pointed north and east were right. After starting at 1.1600, the pair first rose to 1.1668, then fell to 1.1616, and then moved sideways in this channel. After Friday's speech by the Fed Governor, the pair dropped to the bottom of this trading range but finished almost in its middle at 1.1643.

According to Reuters, Jerome Powell said it was time to start reducing asset purchases but added that it was not yet time to raise rates. In his view, high inflation is likely to continue into next year, but the central bank expects it to return to the 2% target.

The figures coming in the week from the US labour market could be considered positive. This was due to a larger revision of the previous data on repeated claims for unemployment benefits, from 2.593K to 2.603K. Thus, the current number of 2.481K showed a decrease of 122K instead of the forecast 118K.

Such "tricky" mathematics improved data on primary benefit claims as well. As a result of revising previous results, they decreased by 6K instead of increasing by 2K.

However, all this positive has not helped the dollar much, as US Treasury yields remain around 2.15%, while the probability of its growth towards 3.0% remains.

Weaker Markit PMI in German and Eurozone manufacturing sectors could push the EUR/USD pair down on Friday 22 October. But they turned out to be multi-colored. The European index turned into the red, dropping from 56.2 to 54.3 against a forecast of 55.2. But the index of the main locomotive of the European housekeeper, Germany, on the contrary, is green at 58.2 against the forecast 56.5.

The fact that the US labour market continues to improve should, in the end, provide more support to the dollar. Fed Governor Jerome Powell has repeatedly stressed that the monetary stimulus (QE) program is aimed at stabilizing the labor market, among other things. This task, although not fully accomplished, is very close to the goal. Consequently, there is nothing preventing the Fed from starting to reduce monetary stimulus in the near future.

So, what to expect from EUR/USD in the near future? Whereas 55% of the oscillators on D1 were painted red, 15% green and 30% neutral grey a week ago, the picture has changed now. 50% of the indicators are pointing up, 20% have taken a neutral position, 15% are looking down, and the remaining 15% are signaling that the pair is overbought. As for trend indicators, their readings have also been affected by the sideways movement of recent days, resulting in a draw of 50% by 50%.

The overwhelming majority of analysts expect the dollar to strengthen by the end of the year. But their opinions are almost equally divided about the forecast for the coming week. 45% of experts vote for the bullish scenario, as much as bearish, and 10% have taken a neutral stance.

Support levels are 1.1615, 1.1585, 1.1560, 1.1520, 1.1485 and 1.1450. Resistance levels are 1.1670 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

As for next week's events, the Eurozone Bank Lending Report which will be published on Tuesday 26 October should be noted. Capital and durable goods orders are due from the US on Wednesday October 27. We are expecting quite a lot of macro statistics on Thursday and Friday, including consumer markets and GDP data from the Eurozone, Germany and the United States. In addition, the European Central Bank will meet on October 28. The interest rate is likely to remain unchanged at 0%. Therefore, the subsequent press conference and commentary by the ECB management on monetary policy is of much greater interest.

GBP/USD: Wherever the Euro Goes, the Pound Goes

Last week's GBP/USD chart is very similar to the EUR/USD chart: sideways movement with some advantage to bulls and finish just above the start level, at 1.3758. This stems from the absence of many serious drivers from the other side of the Atlantic, as well as from the statistics from the UK itself.

UK consumer price growth slowed from 3.2 per cent to 3.1 per cent, which is a good signal for investors fearing global inflation. However, the market has hardly reacted to these figures, keeping a close eye on gas prices, as the energy crisis is now a major threat not only for the United Europe but also for the UK that separated from it. Inflation is certainly very important, but the country is repeating the path already taken by the Eurozone and the United States, where it was followed by strong growth following a slight decline.

The Markit Business Activity Index (PMI) in the British services sector published on Friday, October 22, rose from 55.4 to 58.0 instead of the expected decline. This didn't help the pound. The dollar, with the help of Jerome Powell, who made a speech shortly before the markets closed, strengthened not only against the euro, but also against the British currency.

Unlike its European counterpart, the pound had been growing since September 29. And this could not but affect the readings of the indicators on D1, among which the advantage is still on the side of the green. Among the oscillators, these are 55%, 25% are grey and 20% signal that the pair is overbought. Among the trend indicators, 60% are looking north, 40% have already turned south.

As far as experts are concerned, there is no discernible advantage: 35% vote for the pair's growth, 25% for its decline, and 40% for movement in the side channel.

The supports are located at levels 1.3740, 1.3675, 1.3600, 1.3575, 1.3525 and 1.3400. The resistance levels and bull targets are 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3835, 1.3900 and 1.4000

USD/JPY: Return to 2017

USD/JPY upgraded its four-year high on October 20 to reach 114.70 high, the very point where it was in November 2017. After that, the enthusiasm of the bulls subsided, and the pair returned to the values of a week ago.

While the dollar has strengthened against the euro and the British pound since Fed Governor Jerome Powell's speech on October 22, it has weakened a bit against the yen as a safe haven currency. As a result, the final chord sounded at around 113.42.

As we know, the pair's performance is strongly influenced by the yield of US government bonds, which hovers around 2.15% so far. However, if it rises, USD/JPY will see a new rise in volatility.

At this stage, 65% of analysts expect the pair to first return to the 113.00 horizon, and then drop to the 111.00-112.00 zone by the end of November. The remaining 35% of experts adhere to the opposite point of view, expecting the next update of multi-year highs and the rise of the pair to the range 115.00-116.00.

The resistance levels are 114.45, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. Support levels are 113.25, 112.00 and 111.65.

As for the events of the coming week, one could note the meeting of the Bank of Japan, which will be held on the same day as the meeting of the ECB, on Thursday October 28. However, it is highly likely to bring no surprises, and the interest rate will remain negative at minus 0.1% as before.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: $66,925: Bitcoin's New High


Bitcoin hit $64,850 on April 14, followed by a 55% pullback to $29,230. And now what crypto investors have been waiting for has finally happened. After months of anxiety and anticipation, the BTC/USD pair not only regained what it had lost, but also upgraded its historic high, peaking at $66,925 on October 20. Ethereum also reached its all-time high: the ETH/USD pair was noted at a height of $4,363.

Analysts say the reasons for the current rise are two. The first is the launch of Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded investment funds). First, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a Bitcoin futures ETF from ProShares, followed by approval of VanEck's application to launch a similar ETF.

The second and main reason for the bullish trend was investors' concerns about inflation. Experts at JPMorgan Chase, the largest banking conglomerate, pointed out that real gold, unlike digital gold, has hardly responded to inflationary concerns. This suggests bitcoin's renewed role as the best capital protection tool for investors and supports the bullish outlook for BTC until the end of the year.

Many other analysts agree with JPMorgan Chase, who are optimistic about the performance of the main cryptocurrency until the end of December. But at the same time, they urge investors to be extremely cautious in early 2020 as the big four-year BTC cycle is about to end. So Scion Capital hedge fund founder Michael Burry, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, has already thought about opening a short bitcoin position.

Finder conducted a survey of 50 fintech industry experts with representatives from Cypherpunk Holdings, Bitcoin Reserve, Kraken, Arcane and CryptoQuant, as well as 7 professors, representing universities in Asia, Europe and Australia. In their opinion, the BTC rate will peak at a level slightly above $80,000 within the next two months, and the flagship cryptocurrency will end the year around $71,400.

The levels indicated by these experts turned out to be significantly lower than the forecasts of analysts of Standard Chartered and Bloomberg, who believe bitcoin could exceed $100,000 this year.

Popular crypto analyst Willy Woo believes that the next phase of the bitcoin market will be more volatile than previous bullish periods, implying a longer time frame for the current cycle. recall that this analyst wrote in a series of Twitter posts a year ago that, according to his model, $200,000 per bitcoin by the end of 2021 is a conservative forecast. However, he did not exclude the likelihood that BTC will soar up to $300,000.

Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO Mark Jusko calls the numbers similar to Willie Woo's predictions. He suggests that the price of the oldest cryptocurrency could soar to the level of $250,000, only to happen not in 2021, but in the next 5 years. In doing so, he acknowledged that the path to such a peak may not be easy.

In the meantime, there is a rollback in the crypto market. The most cautious investors close long positions. Bitcoins are also sold by those who bought them at the spring highs. They have earned a little and do not want to risk again.  A glitch in the algorithm on the Binance.US exchange added fears as well, when the price immediately collapsed by 87%. However, the performance of other exchanges and brokers was not affected by this, and the BTC/USD pair was trading at $61,000 at the time of writing. The total crypto market capitalization is $2.6 trillion, and the Bitcoin Dominance Index is 45.94%. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in the Greed zone at 75 points. However, this does not mean that the market is strongly overbought, and, in the opinion of the index developers, it can still be dangerous to open short positions in this situation.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

CryptoNews of the Week


- Scammers launched a series of fake broadcasts on YouTube on the evening of October 18, a few hours before the official start of the Apple Unleashed press conference, in which they invited users to take part in the distribution of cryptocurrencies. Viewers were encouraged to send 0.1 BTC to 5 BTC or 3 ETH to 500 ETH to the specified wallet and allegedly get back the double amount of the cryptocurrencies. The fake stream was carried out on a channel that completely copied the Apple's account, which resulted in one of the fake presentations gathering about 30,000 participants.
Scammers often use YouTube to promote fake cryptocurrency giveaways. As a reminder, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak already joined a class action against YouTube and Google in July 2020 over malicious actions, but the court found that the platform did not carry liability for materials posted by third parties.

- The founder of the Brazilian crypto exchange Foxbit, Joao Canhada, acquired 1 BTC for his daughter on the day of her birth, Cointelegraph tells the family story. “I bought bitcoin for her not just as a gift, but as a way to invest in the new economy. At that time, it was estimated at 5,000 Brazilian reais (about $915),” admits the perspicacious father. After just four years, bitcoin has climbed to $63,000 and the investment has generated a 6,800% return. Now we can only guess what the profit will be when the girl comes of age.

- American software architect and entrepreneur Jack Dorsey revealed that payment giant Square is considering creating a device to mine the first open-source cryptocurrency.
In Dorsey's view, mining should be easier and more accessible to everyone in order to improve the resilience of the bitcoin network. The equipment supply is currently concentrated in just a few companies. For this reason, the creator of Square and Twitter is thinking about removing barriers for miners.

- The city of North Vancouver in the Canadian province of British Columbia expects to provide heat to the city's residential and industrial buildings by mining bitcoin from 2022.
Municipal energy company Lonsdale Energy Corporation has entered into an agreement with mining firm MintGreen to provide a new carbon-free source of energy for the district heating system instead of burning natural gas. According to the press release, the immersion-cooled cryptocurrency mining rigs convert over 95% of the electricity consumed into heat, which can be used for heating and industrial processes.
“Cryptocurrency miners operate at full capacity 365 days a year, creating a unique opportunity to provide a reliable and sustainable base load for the North Vancouver district heating system,” the statement said. Per 1 MW, the use of mining will prevent up to 20,000 tons of greenhouse gases from entering the atmosphere.

- Scion Capital hedge fund founder Michael Burry, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, has repeatedly criticized cryptocurrencies, calling the digital asset market an economic bubble. And now he is exploring the possibility of opening a short position in cryptocurrency. This short-run specialist asked his Twitter followers how to do this.
“Okay, I haven't done this before, how can you short on cryptocurrency? Do you need to secure a loan? Is there a short rebate? Can there be a margin call? “, Michael Berry wondered.

- A favorable macroeconomic environment, good network performance and the approval of bitcoin ETFs in the US will help BTC hit new all-time highs this quarter, according to a Finder poll of 50 fintech industry experts.
The survey was attended by representatives of Cypherpunk Holdings, Bitcoin Reserve, Kraken, Arcane and CryptoQuant, as well as 7 professors from universities in Asia, Europe and Australia. According to them, the BTC exchange rate will peak at slightly above $80,000 over the next two months, and the flagship cryptocurrency will finish the year around $71,400.
The levels indicated by these experts were well below the forecasts of Standard Chartered and Bloomberg analysts, who believe bitcoin could exceed $100,000 this year.

- The pace of institutional participation in BTC has accelerated over the past 5 weeks, which is an important sign of the bull market return. According to popular crypto analyst Willy Woo, the next phase of the bitcoin market will be more volatile than previous bullish periods, implying a longer time frame for the current cycle.
This analyst wrote in a series of Twitter posts a year ago that, according to his model, $200,000 per bitcoin by the end of 2021 is a conservative forecast. However, he did not exclude the likelihood that BTC will soar up to $300,000.

- Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO Mark Jusko calls the numbers like Willie Woo's predictions. He suggests that the price of the oldest cryptocurrency could soar to the level of $250,000, only to happen not in 2021, but in the next 5 years. In doing so, he acknowledged that the path to such a peak may not be easy.
Yusko repeated his prediction In another interview with CNBC. He also praised the main crypto asset as superior to gold due to its fixed supply of 21 million coins. “This is a classic supply and demand option. One of the nice things about bitcoin as an asset is that it has a limited supply. We know how many bitcoins will be mined every day for the next 140 years."
By the time BTC reaches the $250,000 mark, Jusko says, its market cap will be equal to that of gold.

- One of the first bitcoin investors, billionaire and CEO of venture capital firm Social Capital, Chamat Palihapitiya, believes that the United States will no longer be able to ban bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency. In his view, the cryptocurrency market has become too big for US authorities to stifle the emerging industry:
“You can't just take the $2 trillion capitalization off the face of the earth,” Palihapitiya wrote. “Bitcoin is not going anywhere and is currently too institutionalized. There are already quite a few organized pools of capital within this ecosystem.
I can give an example of a simple high-frequency trading by Jump Trading. They posted several photos of a group of hired newbies and a tutorial on programming in Solana. It was an example of bringing people on their part. Therefore, when there are people with big finance and they are ready to invest money in it, the capitalization of the crypto market will grow to $6 trillion, and then to $10 trillion. This is why Powell and Gensler had to voice that they are not going to ban cryptocurrencies. In fact, they know it is impossible. "
As a reminder, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in early October that he had no plans to ban cryptocurrencies. A few days later, SEC chief Gary Gensler practically repeated those words. And it was last Thursday that Senator Cynthia Lammis spoke in the Senate, saying that digital currencies could help countries like the United States cope with an impending crisis when the state runs out of cash. “Thank God for bitcoin, another non-fiat currency that surpasses the irresponsibility of governments, including our own,” exclaimed Ms Senator from a high rostrum.

- Over 99% of bitcoins in circulation bring profit to their holders. This is the conclusion reached by Glassnode analysts. According to the published chart, only 0.98% of the coins (about 186.000 BTC) were bought at a price above $59.000. At the same time, open interest in bitcoin options has risen sharply to the levels of last May-April. The increase from September was +107% (from $6.3 billion to $12.2 billion). Glassnode experts also revealed that nearly $325 million is put on bitcoin's growth to $200,000 by the end of the year.
As for the leading altcoin, according to Glassnode, the number of Ethereum investors holding at least 1 ETH in their crypto wallets has renewed its all-time high, reaching 1.34 million addresses. There were just over 1 million of them at the beginning of the year. In total, the Ethereum network has processed transactions worth more than $6.2 trillion over the past 12 months, 369% more than in 2020.

- The mysterious creator of the bitcoin network, Satoshi Nakamoto, was included In mid-April in the list of the 20 richest people on the planet, but his fortune decreased dramatically after the fall in the price of BTC. However, Nakamoto regained the lost ground this week after the price of the first cryptocurrency topped $60,000.
It is generally believed among crypto experts that Nakamoto has about 1 million bitcoins, some call a smaller figure, some larger. The Whale Alert report calls the figure of 1.125 million BTC. Thus, as of october 17, 2021, Nakamoto owns approximately $60.7 billion in Bitcoin (BTC), $625 million in Bitcoin cash (BCH), $169 million in Bitcoinsv (BSV), and $191 million in Ecash (formerly known as BCHA or Bitcoin ABC). In total, this amounts to $60.9 billion.


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EUR/USD: Correction or Trend Change?

Having reached a local low of 1.1523 on Tuesday October 12, EUR/USD ended a five-week downward marathon, turned, and moved up. Since autumn started, the dollar has won back 385 points from the euro. And is the pan-European currency going to regain losses now?

The situation is actually ambiguous. Some experts expected a much more powerful correction further north. But it didn't happen: the pair managed to rise only to 1.1624 and ended the five-day run at 1.1600.

The week's data show that the US economy continues to recover fairly quickly, increasing to almost 100% the chance that the Fed will start tapering monetary stimulus (QE) program next month.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US fell to 293,000 for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (down 36K against 14,000 forecast). And the number of those already receiving benefits, with the forecast of 78 thousand, decreased by 134 thousand: from 2.72 to 2.59 million. Producer prices also showed an increase, from 8.3% to 8.6% (with a forecast of 8.5%). Year-on-year, therefore, inflation of these prices showed the most powerful uptick in history.

It should be noted that the Producer Price Index serves as a leading indicator for consumer prices. And consequently, inflation can be expected to continue rising, bringing the beginning of the end of QE closer. Especially as retail sales released on Friday 15th October were also in the green zone: ­plus 0.7% versus the forecast minus 0.2%.

 And here the question arises: if everything is so good in the US economy, why hasn't the pair continued its precipitous decline? Grasping at straws, euro-bulls are likely still hoping that the winding down of the fiscal stimulus program will be delayed at least until December. This is supported by the jump in stock indices: the S&P500 rose 3 per cent in the second half of the week (its highest gain in seven months) and the Dow Jones rose 3.4 per cent. This index has not seen such a big break in almost three months.

So what to expect from EUR/USD in the near future? Continuation of the downtrend after the correction? A stronger euro and an upward trend reversal? Or respite in the side channel?

The readings of the indicators on D1 look quite chaotic. Among oscillators, 55% are red, 15% green, and the remaining 30% are neutral grey. There is a lack of unity among trend indicators as well: 65% of them point south and 35% are looking north. The graphical analysis draws the pair's rise to 1.1725, then a fall back and move in the range of 1.1585-1.1725.

As for analysts, 20% favour further decline of the pair, 50% are for its growth, and 30% have taken a neutral stance. Support levels are 1.1585, 1.1560, 1.1520, 1.1485 and 1.1450. Resistance levels are 1.1625, 1.1685 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

For next week's events, the European Council meeting on Thursday October 21 and the Markit Manufacturing PMI in Germany and in the Eurozone as a whole on October 22 can be noted. The decision of the People's Bank of China on the interest rate, which will be made public on Wednesday, October 20, may also rock the pair.

GBP/USD: The Victory Is with the Pound So Far

Unlike its European neighbour, the British pound continues to strengthen actively against the dollar: the GBP/USD pair showed a 360-point gain (from 1.3412 to 1.3772) since September 29 and finished at 1.3744. The reason for this dynamic is understandable and lies in the Bank of England's intention to start tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates considerably in the foreseeable future.

As we have already written, according to Citibank experts, the pound is currently supported by the following factors. First is the UK's success in the fight against COVID-19. Secondly, the reduction of political risks associated with the negotiations between the EU and the UK on the Northern Ireland Protocol and the rejection of the referendum on the independence of Scotland. And of course, this is the decision of the Bank of England on a possible increase in the key interest rate to 0.25% in May 2022 and to 0.50% in December. Such prospects for UK monetary policy, according to Citibank analysts, are “well placed to confront Fed policy”, which is what we have seen during October.

However, once the Fed moves to wind down its QE programme, things could change dramatically in favour of the dollar. 60% of experts predict at the moment that the pair will head south again to test the supports at 1.3675, 1.3600, 1.3575, 1.3525 and 1.3400. 20% of analysts vote for the continuation of the upward trend (resistance levels and targets of bulls 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900 and 1.4000). And 20% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, predict a sideways trend.

Among the indicators, a significant advantage is still on the side of the green. 60% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators indicate the continuation of the uptrend on the daily timeframe. 25% of oscillators signal that the pair is overbought, and 15% are in a neutral position.

As for the economic calendar for the coming week, attention should be paid to such an important measure of inflation as the UK CPI (due on Wednesday October 20), as well as Markit's UK services PMI to be released on Friday October 22.

USD/JPY: Per Aspera Ad Astra


There is such an expression in Latin, Per aspera ad astra, the authorship is attributed to the ancient Roman philosopher Lucius Anna Seneca. It literally translates as "Through hardships to the stars” and means "Through difficulties to victory." This is exactly what the USD/JPY bulls won.

Most experts expected that they would not calm down until they took the 112.00 height by storm. And now, finally, their months-long efforts have succeeded. And in a great way. After jumping 222 points over the week, the pair reached a height of 114.45 on Friday October 15, and the last chord was slightly lower at 114.21, near the upper limit of the trade range since the beginning of 2017.

Such a fiasco of the Japanese currency is fully consistent with its role as a haven currency and reflects a stable inverse relationship between its rate and the demand for risks. The growing interest of investors in the American and Japanese stock markets (the Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 grew in parallel with the S&P 500) dealt a strong blow to the yen. A pullback in energy prices, which the country mostly imports, supported the market's appetite for Japanese stocks as well.

According to Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, the weak yen supports exporters, but inflates import costs for a number of companies and consumers. At the same time, he said that the stability in the Forex market is important for the government, and it closely monitors the impact of exchange rates on the Japanese economy. But the minister refused to comment directly on the current situation.

However, the yen's fall in two weeks of October looks too fast against the background of the dynamics of the last five months. And this could be the reason for a strong correction of the USD/JPY pair to the south. So 70% of analysts believe that the pair will return to the 111.00-112.00 zone within the next three to five weeks. However, the bulls will have the advantage in the short term. According to 55% of experts, the continued interest of investors in the stock market could lead to further weakening of the Japanese currency.

At the time of writing this review, 75% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 indicate further growth in the pair. 25% of oscillators signal that it is overbought and a possible correction. The resistance levels are 114.55 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. Support levels are 113.80, 113.25, 112.00 and 111.65.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: BTC's New Target Is $68,000

China-related news almost reversed the bitcoin trend south again on Wednesday, October 13. Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, has announced, following other exchanges, that it will stop serving Chinese clients and remove the yuan from the list of supported currencies as of December 31.

Prior to Beijing's repressions, residents of this country formed one of the major parts of the crypto community, with the country leading bitcoin mining. Back in 2020, its share was 50-60% of the global hash rate. The situation has changed dramatically since then and, according to Cambridge University, the top three in crypto mining are now the United States (35.4%), Kazakhstan (18.1%) and Russia (11.2%).

If you look at the map, you can see that the last two of these countries have a land border with China, which made it possible to move numerous mining equipment there. As a result, illegal miners in some Russian border regions have increased annual electricity consumption by 160%.

Time will tell whether China will win or lose from the imposed bans. This applies to other countries as well, some of which seek to tighten legislation in this area as much as possible, while others are very loyal to digital assets. For example, Director of US National Intelligence John Ratcliffe sent a letter to the SEC chairman last year asking him not to restrict the activities of US miners. There is no need to talk about El Salvador, which recognized bitcoin as the official currency.

Interestingly, this decision was heavily criticized by ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin. “Shame on everyone (okay, I'll name the main culprits: shame on bitcoin maximalists) who praise him [El Salvador President Nayib Bukele] without any criticism,” Buterin wrote on Reddit. And he stressed that the process of forcibly integrating digital assets into the financial system “runs counter to the ideals of freedom that should be appreciated by members of the cryptocurrency community. In addition, the tactic of simultaneously distributing BTC to millions of El Salvadorians with little or no prior training is reckless and fraught with the risk of large numbers of innocent people being hacked or tricked."

The Capgemini Research Institute is also concerned with the question of how widely cryptocurrencies have entered the life of ordinary people. In addition to surveys conducted in many countries, it examined statistics from the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other central banks.

Capgemini noted that less than 10% of consumers currently use cryptocurrency for payments. However, the institute predicts that nearly 45% of customers will use this new payment method in one to two years. This trend will be supported by the growing demand for international payments and the reluctance to pay high transaction fees.

If the world's leading powers don't start chasing bitcoin after China, the flagship cryptocurrency has a lot of chances to to bypass leading corporations and even entire sectors of the world economy in terms of capitalization.

According to Coinmarketcap, the largest capitalization currently belongs to Apple ($ 2.34 trillion), followed by Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and BTC is in fifth place. If you look at the statistics, the total capitalization of the stock market is currently about $100 trillion, the capitalization of the gold market is around $12 trillion, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market at the time of writing the review is $2.42 trillion, and the capitalization of BTChas already reached $1.12 trillion (dominance index 46.24%).

Bitcoin continued to delight investors over the past week. Over the seven days, the BTC/USD pair rose 16% to reach a local high of $62,880. Projections supported by many experts suggest that it will soon test the historic high of $64,810 on April 14. If successful, taking into account the statistical volatility, the pair will reach the $68,000, followed by a serious correction associated with massive profit taking.

However, despite a possible pullback, the mid-term outlook for this pair remains positive. The next major resistance level is located in the $80,000-81,000 area. American Crypto Exchange Kraken experts believe that the price of the flagship asset could reach $100,000 by the end of 2021. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of previous years, a calculation was made, according to which, the price of bitcoin tends to grow during the fourth quarter of any year. During this period, "the average and median returns reached +119% and +58%, respectively." If the average return of the previous 2020 year recurs, BTC could end the year close to $100,000. More precisely, around $96,000. However, if we see not the average, but the median profitability, Kraken experts write, then the price of bitcoin will rise to about $70,000.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed from the Fear Zone to the Greed Zone in the two weeks of October to reach 71 points. However, this does not mean that the market is strongly overbought, and, in the opinion of the index developers, it can still be dangerous to open short positions in this situation.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


- Financial giant JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has previously repeatedly criticized cryptocurrencies, promised to fire employees trading digital assets, and called bitcoin holders fools. And now, according to Bloomberg, he smothered the first cryptocurrency to smithereens once again, but admitted that the customers of his holding believe otherwise.
“I personally think bitcoin is worth nothing,” Dimon said at the Institute of International Finance's annual meeting. “But our clients are adults and they don't agree. This is what creates markets. Therefore, if they want to be able to buy BTC, we can provide them with legal and transparent access.”
At the same time, he added that cryptocurrencies will be subject to regulation as concerns grow in Washington regarding stablecoins and the new asset class in general.

- Co-founder of venture capital firm Morgan Creek Digital, Anthony Pompliano, revealed that YouTube removed his channel on the evening of October 11 while on air with popular blogger PlanB. According to Pompliano, this came after discussions about a bullish scenario for bitcoin for the next five years. He later published screenshots of emails from the service, which described the content about the first cryptocurrency as “dangerous and harmful.” Video hosting representatives felt that the channel's creators were allegedly “encouraging illegal activities.”
Pompliano said about two hours later that the YouTube channel had been restored, though "without any explanation from the company."

- 26 Israelis were detained in Tel Aviv on October 5, during a joint operation by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Israeli Police on suspicion of involvement in organized financial fraud in the field of Forex and crypto. And just a week later, all 26 were released, without any special conditions of release.
As previously stated in an official statement by the Israeli police, the detainees provided false brokerage services to clients around the world, thus embezzling $7 million. Users were promised access to forex or cryptocurrency trading, which in reality did not take place, and funds were simply appropriated by the scheme organizers.
And now all the detainees, without exception, were released after a court hearing. Moreover, lawyers for earlier suspects are preparing countersuits against the nation's law enforcement agencies. However, there are reports that two more new crypto-fraud cases involving Israeli citizens are being investigated in the neighboring country of Cyprus.

- Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin criticized El Salvador's decision to recognize bitcoin as the official currency. He stressed that the process of forcibly integrating digital assets into the financial system “runs counter to the ideals of freedom that should be appreciated by members of the cryptocurrency community. In addition, the tactic of simultaneously distributing BTC to millions of El Salvadorians with little or no prior training is reckless and fraught with the risk of large numbers of innocent people being hacked or tricked. "
“Shame on everyone (okay, I'll name the main culprits: shame on bitcoin maximalists) who praise him [President Nayib Bukele] without any criticism,” Buterin wrote on Reddit.

- Legendary billionaire investor and founder of Miller Value Partners, Bill Miller, called bitcoin digital gold and compared his bet on it to buying Amazon stock during the dot-com bubble crash. According to the billionaire, he acquired shares of the tech giant Amazon at an average price of $17 more than 20 years ago. The first cryptocurrency cost him an average of $500 per coin.
“Bitcoin is much less risky at $43,000 than at $300. Now it is recognized, a huge amount of venture capital has gone into it, all the big banks are involved,” Miller said. However, the billionaire advised investors who are not too deeply versed in cryptocurrency to invest no more than 1% of funds in digital assets. Regarding altcoins, Miller noted that the chances of succeeding with more than “10,000 existing tokens and other” are extremely small,” although “Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some other coins will probably exist for a while.”

- Research Institute Capgemini conducted a survey around the world to analyze the current payment situation. In addition, the statistics of the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other central banks were studied.
Capgemini noted that less than 10% of consumers currently use cryptocurrency for payments. However, the research institute predicts that nearly 45% of customers will use this new payment method in one to two years. This trend will be supported by the growing demand for international payments and the reluctance to pay high transaction fees. Cryptocurrency credit cards will become more widespread. At the same time, the researchers concluded that the prospects for cryptocurrencies and stablecoins are vague, due to the ambiguous position of governments around the world.

- According to Coinmarketcap data, Apple Corporation currently has the largest capitalization ($2.34 trillion), followed by Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and bitcoin is in fifth place. If you look at the statistics, the total capitalization of the stock market is currently about $100 trillion, the capitalization of the gold market is around $12 trillion, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has exceeded $2 trillion, and the capitalization of BTC is already $1 trillion.
What can the above statistics indicate? According to the authors of the publication in Freedman Club Crypto News, only that the flagship cryptocurrency has the potential to not only bypass corporations in terms of capitalization, but also entire sectors of the world economy.

- The Swiss non-profit think tank 2B4CH has proposed making bitcoin one of the reserve assets of the Bank of Switzerland and reflecting this in the country's Constitution.
2B4CH was founded in Geneva in 2017. It conducts research on how cryptocurrencies and blockchain can affect society, and what changes they can bring to the financial sector. And now 2B4CH has announced on Twitter the launch of a “popular initiative” aimed at collecting 100,000 signatures to amend Article 99, paragraph 3, of the Swiss Constitution. In particular, 2B4CH proposes that the Central Bank of that country should be able to store bitcoin as a reserve asset alongside gold. And in case of successful implementation of the initiative, Switzerland, according to the organizers of the plebiscite, will become a good example for other countries.

- An employee of the US Navy and his wife were arrested on suspicion of selling classified data for cryptocurrency. This is reported on the website of the American Ministry of Justice. According to authorities, nuclear engineer Jonathan Toebbe sold information about the design of American nuclear submarines with the help of his wife, allegedly to a representative of a foreign country. The latter turned out to be an undercover FBI agent.
The agent sent Toebbe $10,000 in cryptocurrency in June (according to CoinDesk, Monero). After receiving the payment, the couple hid the secret SD card inside the peanut butter sandwich in a pre-arranged location. The agent then sent them another $20,000.
Toebbe hid another SD card in a gum box in August, receiving $70,000 for the decryption key. And more recently, in October, the engineer made another cache with another map containing data on submarines, after which he and his wife were arrested.

- American Crypto Exchange Kraken experts believe that the price of the flagship asset could reach $100,000 by the end of 2021. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of previous years, a calculation was made, according to which, the price of bitcoin tends to grow during the fourth quarter of any year. During this period, "the average and median returns reached +119% and +58%, respectively." If the average return of the previous 2020 year recurs, BTC could end the year close to $100,000. More precisely, around $96,000. However, if we see not the average, but the median profitability, experts write, then the price of bitcoin will rise to about $70,000.


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EUR/USD: First Down, Then Up


The global economy is recovering from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and this process will continue in 2022. At least. The forecast for global GDP growth of 6% is maintained this year. Growth will continue (unless there are new “surprises”) to roughly 5% next year, according to preliminary forecasts. However, this is an average indicator, and it is the difference in the rates of recovery of the economies of different countries that will affect the rates of their national currencies.

You can see quite different vector behavior of the EUR/USD pair since the beginning of the pandemic. Having started at 1.0635 in March 2020, the pair was already at 1.2350 in early January 2021. The weakening of the dollar has been affected by the intense pumping of the US economy with a huge dollar mass as part of the monetary stimulus (QE) policy implemented by the US Federal Reserve.

With the start of a new 2021 and the arrival of the administration of a new President Joe Biden in the White House, the market has a feeling of greater stability and the imminent winding down of QE. All the more so because macroeconomic indicators, particularly inflation and the labor market recovery, were encouraging. The dollar gained muscle and the EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.1700 by the end of March.

But dovish sentiment prevailed among the Fed's leadership, the pumping of the economy with money continued, the beginning of the curtailment of the quantitative easing program was postponed indefinitely, and one could not even think about raising the base interest rate. And the pair rose above the important psychological level 1.2000 again, reaching the height of 1.2265.

The competition between the central banks of Europe and the United States certainly did not end there. But while the ECB's rhetoric continued to be dovish, the statements of some Fed leaders already sounded a harsh hawkish note. Investors started to expect that the Fed would begin to roll back QE at the end of this year and will complete it in 2022, in order to start raising the discount rate in early 2023. And the dollar gained ground again, dropping the pair back into the 1.1700 zone. 

At its September meeting, the American regulator did not announce any specific plans regarding the curtailment of the monetary stimulus program. But, if decision-making dynamics remain the same, the Fed will be ahead of the ECB by about six months.

On this basis, many experts predict the dollar will continue to strengthen in late 2021 and in the first half of 2022. In this case, the pair will continue to move south, first to support 1.1500 and then to 1.1200. Some particularly zeal bears predict the pair will even drop to the lows of March 2020.

As for the second half of 2022, according to a number of forecasts, the US economic situation will stabilize, while the “slow” Eurozone, on the contrary, will begin to gain momentum. A reduction in the European QE program and a rise in the euro interest rate could reverse the trend and return the pair to the 1.1700-1.2000 zone.   

It is clear that the dynamics of the pair depends on many factors on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean: political, economic, and in recent years, epidemiological. One other major player is China, which also has a strong influence on the economies of both the Old World and the New World. Therefore, it should be understood that everything said is based on a vision of the situation at the moment, and can be (and should be) subject to adjustment many times over the coming months.
 

Cryptocurrencies: Virtual and Real Gold

While there is a rough understanding and political and economic justification of forecasts with the major currency pair EUR/USD, things look much more complicated as far as cryptocurrency is concerned. Despite the assurances of influencers, this market looks more like the epicenter of mass speculation over the past 1-1.5 years, rather than a reliable investment platform. The year is not over yet, but bitcoin has already managed to soar from $28,550 in January to $64,800 in April, then collapsed to $29,300 in July, and then repeat this rally, only on a slightly smaller scale.

The rate of the BTC/USD pair can be influenced not only by the decisions of US regulators and the Chinese government, but even the mood Elon Musk has woken up in. One of his tweets can make you a millionaire or rip you to the bone. That's why NordFX brokerage gives its clients the opportunity to make money not only on the growth, but also on the fall of cryptocurrency rates, even without having a single token in stock. Why take the risk and buy bitcoin and then sell it? After all, you can just open a sell trade right away.

Nobody knows exactly how much the reference cryptocurrency will cost. Expert opinions vary widely. Some, like Standart Chartered, see $100,000 by the end of this year, and some predict a rise to the same $100,000, but only by the end of 2022. And some, like the Nobel laureate Robert Schiller, are sure that this bubble will burst soon, burying the two trillion USD plus that the investors have invested in this market.

Much will depend on the recovery of the US economy, the pace of the winding down the monetary stimulus (QE) programme, the prospects for the Fed raising interest rates and the dynamics of treasury yields. These are factors that can severely reduce the risk appetite of institutional investors and return them to more familiar financial instruments.

For ethereum, the forecast of Standard Chartered experts is as favorable as for bitcoin and looks very optimistic. A range of $26,000-35,000 per coin was announced in an interview for Reuters. But that's not the limit either, especially if the bitcoin rate approaches $175,000 by the end of 2022.

According to a report by the major investment bank Goldman Sachs published in Forbes, the base cryptocurrency has the chance to lose its leading position, giving way to ethereum. Goldman Sachs believes that the main reason for the popularity of the main altcoin is the ability to create new applications. And also the fact that many financial instruments can be replaced on the basis of its platform. This includes, among other things, loans and other banking operations.

As for real, not digital, gold, a number of experts believe that this precious metal has yet to run out of growth potential in 2022. They do not rule out that the XAU/USD pair could break the August 2020 record and rise to $2,200-2,300 per ounce. However, the price performance of this reserve asset will also depend on investors' willingness or reluctance to take risks, as mentioned above.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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CryptoNews of the Week


- The United States will hold a meeting with representatives from 30 countries to jointly fight cybercrime and the illegal use of cryptocurrencies, US President Joe Biden said. It is not specified which specific states are in question.
The Biden administration has identified tracking cryptocurrency transactions as a possible option to combat ransomware. This happened after several cyberattacks on major US companies.

- ESET has released a list of countries with the highest rate of cryptocurrency related cyber threats. Russia comes first, accounting for 10% of all cases detected. Peru comes second with 6.8% of threats, third is the United States responsible for 5.3% of threats.
At the same time, the total number of cryptocurrency threats detected by ESET has decreased by 23.6%. Experts have noticed that this dynamic is directly linked to cryptocurrency prices: the threats have decreased significantly since the collapse of the quotes last May. 
In addition to mining malware, cryptocurrency investment fraud schemes are gaining popularity, where scammers lure their victims to fake investment sites or impersonate governmental bodies or celebrities.
Victims of such schemes lost at least $80 million from October 2020 to May 2021, according to the Federal Trade Commission of the United States. Meanwhile, according to Chainalysis, the financial pyramid Finiko with Russian roots alone collected $800 million worth of cryptocurrency from Eastern Europeans.

- Well-known Canadian entrepreneur, investor and TV show host Kevin O'Leary said that he now has more cryptocurrency in his portfolio than gold. “Gold takes 5% in my portfolio and cryptocurrency has bypassed it for the first time. But this does not mean that I will sell all the gold, since I do not see the point in this yet. The crypto sector offers not only speculation on the BTC rate now, but there are many other ways to invest as well. And I plan to become an investor in this field.”
Cryptocurrencies currently account for 7% of his portfolio, O'Leary said. At the same time, he said that while gold and bitcoin are often opposed, having both assets in your portfolio is a good idea.

- Chivo public cryptocurrency wallet users in El Salvador will receive a discount on their car fuel if they pay in bitcoin. The announcement was made by the country's president, Nayib Bukele.
“State-owned Chivo negotiated with major fuel companies to sell every gallon of gasoline through a crypto wallet for $0.20 cheaper from October 1," he wrote. According to Bukele, the measure “reverses several increases in global fuel prices.”
Users expressed their doubts about the usefulness of such a step in their comments: “These 20 cents will come from all of us, right? The filling stations will not lose, they will be reimbursed from the taxes we paid, including the taxes of those who walk. "

- Former CIA and US National Security Agency official Edward Snowden, who escaped to Russia, said the Chinese government's crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry “has only strengthened bitcoin."
Snowden recalled his own entry from March 2020 about the desire to buy the first cryptocurrency and noted the tenfold growth of the asset since then. “It [bitcoin] has grown about tenfold since then, despite a coordinated global campaign by governments to undermine public understanding and support of cryptocurrencies,” wrote the former special agent.

- Chief strategist at CoinShares Meltem Demirors investment company said in a comment to CNBC that the rate of the first cryptocurrency will soar to $100,000 by the end of 2021. A lot of cash remains untapped, she said, so investors plan to include digital gold in their portfolio.
She also named the buy-on-rumor, sell-on-fact model as one of the catalysts for price changes in the first cryptocurrency. “We are now seeing a lot of hype around the potential approval of the Bitcoin ETF,” explained Demirors. She said “certain movements” on long-term options with six-digit figures will begin at the end of Q4 2021 and early Q1 2022.

- Anthony Pompliano, an avid bitcoin supporter and co-founder of the Morgan Creek Digital venture capital firm, has identified the most serious risks to the coin's growth. “Unlike the sentiments of bitcoin supporters, it will not turn into a currency, which means its market will be quite limited. The maximum for bitcoin is the capitalization of gold, which is essentially a store of value. Bitcoin is not used for day-to-day shopping, and while its upside potential may be slightly higher, it is still limited. "
Pompliano also highlighted several factors that may have undesirable consequences for the main cryptocurrency: “It may be revealed who Satoshi is and if it turns out he is not a very good person, this could have a negative impact on bitcoin itself. In addition, no one uses it for specific purposes, such as making international payments, as it is slow and expensive. There is also an option that governments will decide to tighten measures against bitcoin in the future, for example, they will begin to regulate it, impose heavy taxes or even ban and outlaw it. "
A particular risk, according to Pompliano, is that “bitcoin is still in development. It is still being updated, and although the process includes many filters, security checks and more, there may be a bug in the code that is introduced that will cost a lot.”

- Most of the surveyed cryptocurrency investors from Africa stated that their main motivation is to ensure their family well-being. According to Luno's research, almost half (48%) of respondents are willing to save and invest their salary in cryptocurrencies to pay for their children's education, while 43% are willing to create a starter capital for children and grandchildren, 39% for saving.

- Galaxy Digital crypto bank founder Mike Novogratz told CNN that bitcoin will make fundamental changes to the financial system. He has also urged investors not to pay attention to the volatility of digital gold, but to look at the big picture of the market. “Bubbles and manias are happening around things that change our thinking fundamentally,” Novogratz stressed.
According to the banker, cryptocurrency investors are not just interested in profit, they believe in fundamental changes in the financial system, and the growing interest in bitcoin is associated with the underlying technology.
The head of Galaxy Digital predicted the price of bitcoin to rise to $500,000 in ten years. He believes that 75% of altcoins will disappear from the market over the same period.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in September 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The highest profit in the first month of autumn was received by a client from India, account No.1584XXX, earning almost USD 300,000, or USD 291,944 to be exact. As the analysis shows, the main trading instruments of the leaders are still the pairs with the British pound (GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/AUD). The winner of the September rating used a number of other pairs as well, such as EUR/NZD, for example.

The second place on the podium was taken by a representative of China, account No. 1397XXX. Their result was almost half that of the leader, but still amounted to an impressive USD 159,241, and was obtained for the same volatile pairs including the British currency: GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.

A trader from Vietnam, account No.1499XXX, who ranked third, used the GBP/JPY pair heavily as well. Their profit at the end of the month amounted to USD 93.610.

The passive investment services:
- CopyTrading has changed its leader. It is the aggressive SHASK VN signal broadcast from Vietnam now. It showed a yield of 435%  on deals with oil (72% of the total) and with gold (21%), in the last three days of September alone. At the same time, the maximum drawdown during the lifetime of the signal was close to 63% of the deposit, making subscribing to it a high-risk event.

As for the leader of July-August, BangBigBosStop1, the first autumn month was not very successful for it. It suffered a loss of 6% in September. There is nothing critical about it, though, as the total profit for the five months is 668%. However, despite the advantages of this signal, the maximum drawdown of 58% also makes it a high-risk group.
As for less risky but also less profitable signals, one might look at KennyFXpro-The Compass, for example. This signal has shown a gain of 135% with a drawdown of around 29% since last November.

- Judging by the title, the same author acts as a manager for NordFX PAMM service as well. Using the nickname KennyFXpro-The Multi 3000 EA, they have increased their capital there by 42% with a drawdown of less than 15% since January 2021.

There are other, even less risky offers in the PAMM service. For example, capital gains under TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 exceeded 26% over six months with a maximum drawdown of about 10%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, USD 8,710, was credited in September to a partner from India, account No.1258XXX;
- next is a partner from the Philippines, account No.1352XXX, who received USD 6,384;
- and, finally, their colleague from China (account No.1336XXX) closes the top three, earning USD 5,992 in commission.


https://nordfx.com/

EUR/USD: Bears' New Win


EUR/USD fell to 1.1562 last week, breaking through the key support level of 1.1630, which separated the bullish trend that began in March 2020 from the bearish trend.

September turned out to be the worst month for the US stock market, allowing the dollar to strengthen its position as a safe-haven asset. In addition, the Fed made it clear at its last meeting that it may be ready to begin a soft rollback of the monetary stimulus (QE) program in November. After that, the DXY dollar index posted its best monthly gain this year.

Things could have changed last Thursday. The US ended its fiscal year on September 30, and as of October 01, the country must live under a new budget, which is still not there. If President Biden had not signed legislation before midnight to increase the national debt limit, it would have threatened not only with the suspension of U.S. government, but also with a potential default. However, Biden approved lifting the limit at the very last moment, but only until December 3.

Amid the intrigue with government debt, the market hardly reacted to the contradictory US macro statistics, although the news from the labour market was not the most gratifying. For example, initial applications for unemployment benefits rose from 351,000 to 362,000, against the forecast decline to 335,000. The PMI index of Chicago in September fell from 66.8 to 64.7 points (against the forecast of 65 points). But the US GDP for the Q2 grew by 6.7% and turned out to be better than the forecast by 0.1%.

Governors of Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic remained cautious last week, leaving their escape routes. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking to members of the Senate, said once again that the acceleration of inflation should be replaced by its slowdown. The strong rise in prices, he said, is “driven by supply chain problems” that his department cannot control.

Almost the same statement was made by ECB Governor Christine Lagarde on Tuesday 28 September. She warned market participants against overreacting to the acceleration of inflation in the Eurozone, considering the phenomenon a temporary factor.

Consumer inflation rose 3.4% in September, the highest level in 13 years, according to Eurostat data. As for inflation in Germany, the main locomotive of the EU, it peaked in 29 years at 4.1%. According to preliminary forecasts, inflation in the Eurozone will approach 4% in Q4 and remain above 2% in the first half of 2022. According to analysts, such an increase is most likely caused by a sharp jump in energy prices.

These statistics and the fact that some market participants decided to close short EUR/USD positions at the end of the US fiscal year, recording gains, helped the common European currency a little, and the pair, having fought back from the local bottom, ended the five-day run at 1.1595.

As for the long-term forecast, many experts believe that the euro has no particular prospects. Some even believe that the pair will return to the spring 2020 lows by the end of next year. As for the near future forecast, 50% of analysts are in favor of a further decline in the pair. They are supported by 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on D1 (15% give signals that the pair is oversold). 20% vote for the sideways trend, and the remaining 30% of experts vote for the growth of the pair.

Support levels are 1.1560, 1.1500 and 1.1450. Resistance levels are 1.1685 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

Of the events to come, note the release of the ISM PMI in the US services sector on Tuesday October 05. Eurozone retail sales will be available on the following day, October 06. The ADP U.S. private employment report will also be released on that day, and another piece of data from the American labor market will arrive on Friday, October 08, including such an important indicator as the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: Bank of England vs US Fed

Last week ended with a bearish win for the GBP/USD pair as well. After starting at 1.3670 and losing 260 points, it bottomed at 1.3410 on Wednesday September 29. This was followed by a fairly powerful rebound and a finish at 1.3545.

Due to the US government debt situation, the market hardly paid attention to the encouraging macro statistics from the UK. But it turned out to be significantly better than forecast. Not only has the GDP drop in the Q1 2021 been revised down from minus 6.1% to 4.8%, but, with a forecast of minus 1.5%, it was 5.5% in Q2.

However, according to a number of experts, the growth of the pound at the end of the week is only indirectly related to these impressive positive statistics. The main reason is that the British currency has been strongly oversold: it has lost about 500 pips to the dollar since mid-September.

At the moment, 70% of experts predict that the pair will go south again to test support in the 1.3400 zone. The remaining 30% have taken a neutral position. As for technical analysis, it still sides with the bears as well¬: 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 are colored red.

It should be noted that when we move to the forecast before the year end, the picture abruptly changes to the opposite: 70% of analysts already say that the GBP/USD pair will return to the 1.3900- 1.4000 zone. Moreover, a third of these 70% does not rule out that it can even reach the May-June highs of 1.4200-1.4250.

The nearest resistances along the way are 1.3600, 1.3690, 1.3765, 1.3810. Supports are in zones 1.3400, 1.3350 and 1.3185.

According to Citibank experts, the pound is currently supported by the following factors. First, there is a decrease in the number of hospitalizations in the UK due to COVID-19. UK assets are attractive both in terms of valuation and in terms of economic normalization after the pandemic. Secondly, it is a decrease in political risks associated with the negotiations between the EU and the UK on the Northern Ireland Protocol and the rejection of the referendum on Scottish independence. And of course, this is the decision of the Bank of England on a possible increase in the key interest rate to 0.25% in May 2022 and to 0.50% in December. Such prospects for UK monetary policy, according to analysts at Citibank, are “well placed to confront Fed policy.”

USD/JPY: 112.00 Again

As predicted by most experts (60%), the USD/JPY pair managed to climb to 112.00 after the Fed's QE cut announcement, and even slightly higher, recording a high at 112.07. The forecast went on to say that it was unlikely to gain a foothold above this horizon. This is exactly what happened. Amid a drop in US government bond yields from 1.567% to 1.474% and a weaker dollar, the yen managed to recoup much of the losses at the end of the week and ended the trading session at 111.02.

Recall that unlike other central banks in developed countries, the Bank of Japan remains committed to ultra-soft monetary policy and negative interest rates. Therefore, the yen is still of interest not as a tool for making money, but as a safe haven currency.

At the moment, 50% of experts expect the pair to make another attempt to consolidate above the 112.00 horizon. 25% of analysts are neutral, and another 25% expect the pair to fall.

Support levels are unchanged: 110.45, 110.15, 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The dream of the bears (it seems to be already impossible) is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 111.00 and 111.65.

It should be noted that the USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. On this basis, the absolute majority of analysts believe that after the failed storm of 112.00, the pair will return to this trading range, where it will continue to move.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: "Goodbye Bears"

According to statistics from the 99Bitcoins website, digital gold was predicted to die 37 times in 2021. Interestingly, this amount is 2.65 times higher than in 2020, during which BTC “passed away” only 14 times.

99Bitcoins has acted as the official repository for all bitcoin obituaries since 2010, with precise criteria for selecting such publications. The last registered obituary dates from September 21, 2021 and was written by renowned economist Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University, who stated that bitcoin is a highly speculative zero-value asset.

Another obituary may soon be registered, this one authored by entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki. The other day, this best-selling author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” projected a “giant stock market collapse” due in October. The same fate awaits gold, silver and bitcoin, he said. The main reason for Kiyosaki's upcoming collapse is the Fed, which has started to sell too many Treasury bonds.

Another unhappy forecast was given by an analyst under the nickname PlanB, the author of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. This model predicts the value of bitcoin based on the ratio of the asset's total available supply and its annual increase. Calculations by PlanB have recently showed that the bitcoin rate will exceed $100,000 at the end of this year. And now things have changed for the worse: according to the analyst, the price of the flagship coin could drop to $30,000 instead of rising.

Indeed, bitcoin dynamics did not bode well for the crypto market in September, with the BTC/USD pair falling to $39,666. However, the first day of October changed everything¬: bitcoin flew up, rising to $48,250. We have repeatedly noted the correlation between the stock and crypto markets, which is based on the risk appetite of investors. This time, too, the rise in the price of digital assets occurred in parallel with the rise of stock indices such as the S&P500 and Dow Jones.

An additional impetus for bitcoin could have been given by a surge in the volume of cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges. According to analyst Joseph Edwards of London-based firm Enigma Securities, derivatives trading often affects BTC spot prices. Another impetus may have been the decision by Iranian authorities to lift the ban on cryptocurrency mining.

Famous trader hailed the rise of the major cryptocurrency, exclaiming: “Goodbye bears “, and pointed to the move of leading altcoins into the green zone.

Another trader, billionaire Steven A. Cohen, owner of hedge fund SAC Capital Advisors, saw a perfect scenario for bitcoin that could steer it into future rallies. Cohen believes that BTC may still decline, while it is important its price doesn't fall below the 20-week simple moving average (SMA). This will be the key to creating bullish momentum that will push the the coin up to $64,000.

The 20-week SMA, coupled with the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), is what Cowen calls the "bull market support band." In his view, it is crucial for bitcoin to stay above this band, as history shows that BTC tends to break through the first time it is retested.

The total crypto market capitalization rose again above the psychologically important threshold of $2.0 trillion on October 01 and stands at $2.06 trillion ($1.84 trillion a week ago). But the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Fear zone at 27 points.

And in conclusion, another tip in our joke crypto life hacks column. So what does it take to make money on cryptocurrencies? It turns out it's all about getting a hamster and giving it a chance to... trade. Over the past three months, the value of the portfolio of Mr. Goxx - a crypto trader hamster on the Twitch platform - has increased by 30%. Over the same time, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fund assets fell 2%.

The hamster's owner built a special cage for it in June 2021, equipped with optical sensors that are connected to the Arduino Nano controller. Turning the running wheel, Mr. Goxx "selects" a specific cryptocurrency for trading. The program will sell the coin when the rodent runs through the left tunnel and will buy it if it passes through the right one.

The talented hamster managed to outperform not only Berkshire Hathaway, but also the S&P 500 (+6% over the same period) and NASDAQ 100 (+12%), as well as bitcoin itself (+23%).


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

The second draw of the Super Lottery by brokerage NordFX took place on October 1, 2021. Like the first time, it was held online, and anyone could follow the prize draw on the Internet. The video of the draw has been posted on the company's official YouTube channel.

Another $20,000 of the total prize pool of $100,000 was raffled off among NordFX clients. The winners are the holders of the following lottery tickets:


According to the rules, the prize funds can be used by the lottery winner in trading or withdrawn from the account at any time by any of the available methods and without any restrictions.

The third, final draw will take place immediately after the New Year holidays, on January 03, of already the new year, 2022. A substantial amount of $60,000 will be drawn, which is divided into:
- 30 prizes of $500
- 10 prizes of $1000
- 6 prizes of $2,500 each
- and 1 super prize of $20,000.

Everyone can take part in the lottery and get chances of winning one or even more cash prizes, including the $20,000 super prize. Terms of participation are available on the NordFX website.

https://nordfx.com/

CryptoNews of the Week


- The author of the bestselling book "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki predicted "a giant stock market crash in October." The same fate awaits gold, silver and bitcoin, he said. Kiyosaki cited U.S. Treasury bonds, which have recently been rising rapidly, among the reasons for the collapse. “Cash is best for making deals after a crash,” the entrepreneur wrote.
Kiyosaki also spoke out about another Chinese crackdown on the crypto industry, which caused the price of bitcoin to fall below $40,000. “This means that China is going to launch a government cryptocurrency. If the US follows suit, the Fed will outlaw bitcoin. The U.S. government will become centralized like China, communism will begin in the United States, our freedoms will end,” he wrote.

- The United States of America should take the opposite position to China and buy bitcoin, said Thiel Capital COO Blake Masters. “Let's do the opposite. The U.S. government should buy bitcoin's strategic reserve, Fort Nakamoto, the new Fort Knox,” he wrote.
Masters is a Republican Party representative and Senate candidate from the state of Arizona. Those wishing to support his election campaign can send donations in digital gold, he said. Earlier, his fellow party member, Senator Pat Toomey, called China's crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry "a great opportunity for the United States."

- Due to a security failure, a fake cryptocurrency giveaway was carried out on the popular Bitcoin.org website. Visitors to the website saw immediately a pop-up asking them to send cryptocurrency to a bitcoin wallet using a QR code and receive twice as much in return. The fake message said the Bitcoin Foundation would like to thank the community and that the giveaway will be limited to the first 10,000 users.
Visitors to the site could not remove this message, making the rest of the website inaccessible. Bitcoin.org was founded in August 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto himself. It hosts various important materials, such as the original white paper and developer documentation on bitcoin.
Despite the fact that the fake giveaway scam is not new at all, there were some who bought into the trick and sent quite large amounts in BTC to the fraudsters' wallet.

- The popular Chloe Baffled meme depicting a two-year-old girl was sold as a non-fungible token (NFT) for 25 ETH, nearly $74,000 at the time of the deal. The buyer was the music company 3F Music from Dubai (UAE). The family will keep the proceeds in Ethereum in hopes of further growth of the cryptocurrency. The mother of the heroine plans to spend this money in the future on the education of her daughters, and the “baffled” Chloe herself wants to buy a horse or “build a Disneyland,” writes the BBC.
Chloe became popular in 2013 after posting a video of her reacting baffled to news of a trip to Disneyland while her older sister Lily cries. This video gained more than 20 million likes.

- Analyst under the nickname PlanB, the author of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has just recently predicted that the bitcoin rate will exceed $100,000 at the end of this year. At the same time, he warned that the next few months will be key for the digital asset market. The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model predicts the value of bitcoin by calculating the ratio of the asset's total available supply and its annual increase. And now the analysts' calculations have shown that instead of rising, the price of the flagship coin could drop to $30,000.

- Over the past three months, the value of the portfolio of Mr. Gox - a crypto trader hamster on the Twitch platform - has increased by 30%. Over the same time, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fund assets fell 2%.
The hamster's owner built a special cage for it in June 2021, equipped with optical sensors that are connected to the Arduino Nano controller. This allows the rodent to "trade" digital assets. Turning the running wheel, the hamster "selects" a specific cryptocurrency for trading. The program will sell the coin when the rodent runs through the left tunnel and will buy it if it passes through the right one.
The rodent managed to outperform not only Berkshire Hathaway, but also the S&P 500 (+ 6% over the same period) and NASDAQ 100 (+ 12%), as well as bitcoin itself (+ 23%). The largest asset in Mr. Gox's portfolio is Tron (TRX). The hamster purchased it five times, and the price of this cryptocurrency has grown by 40% since the first transaction.

— According to TripleA research, the number of cryptocurrency users worldwide exceeded 280 million, with India accounting for the largest increase. There are now over 100 million digital currency users, or 7.3% of the country's population. As for other countries, there are 27.4 million in the United States, 17.3 million in Russia, 13.0 million in Nigeria, and Brazil is fifth with 10.3 million.
At the same time, the number of businesses accepting cryptocurrency as payment has grown to 18,000. The report identifies top brands such as fast-food restaurant chain Burger King, travel company Expedia and online commerce platform Rakuten that now accept cryptocurrency payments.

- Billionaire trader, SAC Capital Advisors hedge fund owner Steve A. Cohen has seen a perfect scenario for Bitcoin that could steer it into future rallies. So, Cowan believes that BTC may now go down, while it is important for the price to hold the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) as support. This will be the key to creating bullish momentum that will push the BTC price up to $64,000.
The 20-week SMA, coupled with the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), is what Cowen calls the "bull market support band." In his view, it is crucial for bitcoin to stay above this band, as history shows that BTC tends to break through the first time it is retested.

- According to 99Bitcoins statistics, bitcoin was predicted to pass out 37 times in 2021. Interestingly, this amount is 2.65 times higher than in 2020, during which BTC “passed away” only 14 times.
This site has acted as the official repository for all bitcoin obituaries since 2010, with precise criteria for selecting such publications. In particular, the content selection takes into account whether the article mentions the uselessness of bitcoin both at present and in the future. In addition, the source resource, its traffic, and the credibility of the person who owns the words about the demise of the main cryptocurrency are taken into account.
The last registered obituary dates from September 21, 2021 and was written by renowned economist Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University, who stated that bitcoin is a highly speculative zero-value asset. “Bitcoin's volatility is its Achilles heel and the reason why it will never become a reliable unit of account or currency. Bitcoin is nothing more than a speculative asset with a fundamental value equal to zero,” Hanke's obituary reads.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

EUR/USD: Close Start of QE End

The Fed did not make any changes to its monetary policy at its meeting on September 21-22. However, the regulator made it clear in its commentary that it was possibly ready to start a gentle tapering of the monetary stimulus (QE) program as early as November.

More than half of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members believe that interest rate hikes will begin a few months after the end of QE, that is, even before the end of 2022. In total, in the period 2022-2024 the Fed plans to raise rates at least 6 times. (For comparison, the ECB will only start doing this in three years).

Such prospects were in favor of the dollar, the DXY index rose to 93.498, and the EUR/USD pair renewed its monthly minimum, falling to 1.1683.

There was a slim chance that the start of QE tapering would be announced now. But that hasn't happened, and the Fed will continue to print new dollars for now in a volume of at least $120bn a month. The amount of money on US household balance sheets increased to $16.5 trillion in Q2 and will continue to grow in the near future (it was $12.7 trillion at the end of 2019). But there is bound to come a time when the population starts spending that money supporting the American economy after QE winds down.

Such statistics have given investors confidence in a bright future and revived their risk appetites, pushing the S&P500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones stock indexes up again. By the end of the week, the stock market had virtually compensated for the losses suffered on Monday due to information about the possible bankruptcy of Evergrande, one of China's largest construction companies. Its debt of 2 trillion yuan ($309 billion) is the world largest  and is nearly 80 times its net worth (about $3.9 billion). According to Bloomberg, Evergrande includes 200 offshore and 2,000 Chinese companies operating in many countries, so the bankruptcy of such a giant would deal a powerful blow to the global economy.

The recovery of investors' interests in risky assets and the outflow of money to the stock market reversed the trend of the EUR/USD pair to the north on Thursday. The weakening of the dollar accelerated after the publication of weak data from the US labor market.

Initial jobless claims rose to 351,000 in the week, against the forecast of 320,000. The number of repeated applications for state benefits increased to 2.8 million. This is certainly not a disaster, but a wake-up call for the Fed. And if the NFP and other indicators, which will be published on October 8, turn out to be disappointing as well, the regulator may consider delaying QE tapering for a more distant period.

Both of these factors helped EUR/USD bulls raise the pair to 1.1750 on September 23. As for the end of the working week, the pair struck a final chord at around 1.1715 after the speech of FRS Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday evening.

The fact that the US Central Bank can start winding down QE in 1-2 months and complete the process by mid-2022, after which it will proceed with an interest rate hike, allows forecast a stronger dollar in the medium term. Most experts (65%) expect a rise in the US currency and a further decline in the EUR/USD pair in the coming week. They are supported by 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1. The remaining 35% of analysts vote in favor of the pair's growth, and 15% of oscillators also indicate that it is oversold.

Support levels are 1.1705, 1.1685, 1.1600 and 1525. Resistance levels are 1.1750, 1.1800, 1.1845, 1.1908, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100.

Of the events to come, Germany's federal elections, which will be held on Sunday 26 September and after which Chancellor Angela Merkel will leave office, should be noted. US capital and durable goods orders will be released on Monday September 27. There will be statistics on the consumer markets of Germany and the Eurozone on the last day of the month, as well as data on the US GDP. And finally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released on Friday October 01.

GBP/USD: Bank of England Hawks Win

The past week can be safely called the week of Central banks. Not only the US Federal Reserve, but also the Banks of England, Japan and Switzerland flourished it with their meetings. And while the latter two are not ready to sweep course just yet, the UK regulator has erupted with hawkish rhetoric all of a sudden.

The Bank of England has been extremely passive over the past few years, following in the wake of the ECB and the Fed. And it lasted until the middle of last week. But, apparently, leaving the EU made such behavior impossible. At its meeting on Thursday, September 23, the bank made decisions that made the market literally flinch, and the GBP/USD pair soar by 140 points, from 1.3608 to 1.3748. The regulator not only announced its plans to tighten monetary policy, but also outlined the timing of the refinancing rate increase. The first increase to 0.25% is due in May 2022 and it will rise to 0.50% in December.

In contrast to the Fed's vague timetable, the Bank of England's plan outlined fairly clear milestones, which, as already stated, the market received with enthusiasm. But the GBP/USD pair did not go above 1.3748, because despite the lack of concrete figures at the moment, the Fed's massive plan to end QE will be implemented, and in a short enough time frame. This cooled the fervor of the pound supporters, and as a result, the week-long bout of bulls and bears on the GBP/USD pair ended with a victory for the latter: starting the five-day run at 1.3730, it ended it at 1.3670.

Technical analysis is also ­on the bear side: both oscillators and trend indicators are red on D1. It is not only the trend of the last two weeks that affects, but also the dynamics of the three months of the past summer. But as for the experts who forecast the week ahead, the vote is 50 to 50.

Resistances are at levels 1.3690, 1.3765, 1.3810, 1.3910, then 1.3960, 1.4000 and 1.4100. The bulls aim to refresh the June 01 high at 1.4250. Supports are in zones 1.3640, 1.3600, 1.3570 and 1.3520.

In terms of macro statistics, the UK GDP for Q2 2021 will be released on Thursday 30 September. And, while the previous value was positive (+4.8%), it is now forecast to go negative, minus 1.5%.

USD/JPY: Japanese Doves Lose

The USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. This time too, having started the five-day period at 109.95, it reached a height of 110.78 by the end of the week, and ended the trading session at 110.75.

Unlike other central banks in advanced economies, the Bank of Japan remains committed to ultra-soft monetary policy and negative interest rates. That is why the yen is still of interest not as a tool for making money, but as a safe haven currency.

The start of the week was good for it: the risk aversion triggered by the possible bankruptcy of Evergrande pushed the pair USD/JPY down to the horizon of 109.10. However, things went wrong later. Investors wanted profit again, turning to risky assets. After the Fed meeting, the 10-year US treasuries yield soared above 1.44%. In fact, the yield spread on Japan's 10-year bonds and similar US bonds has gone beyond the recent consolidation in favor of US bonds. And such a balance of strength played into the hands of USD/JPY bulls, weakening the yen's position.

If the Bank of Japan continues to maintain dovish policy and the US Fed actively winds down its fiscal stimulus program, the yen will not feel good. And the USD/JPY pair will still take the 112.00 high by storm. The Japanese currency can be saved by either another drop in demand for risk assets or simply market reluctance to move the pair above the established medium-term corridor.

At the moment, 60% of experts believe that the USD/JPY pair can get close to 112.00. But only half of the analysts vote for it to move above that level. The second half believes that the pair will return to the above-mentioned corridor again.

As for the indicators on D1, 65% of the oscillators look north, the rest are either colored neutral gray or signal the pair is overbought. But the trend indicators unanimously vote for the continuation of the hike to the north.

Support levels are unchanged: 110.15, 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The dream of the bears (it seems to be already impossible) is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to reach the cherished height of 112.00. And maybe even overcome it.

As for the events that will take place in Japan in the coming week, we note the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Japan on Tuesday September 28 and the publication of the Tankan Index of Large Producers of the country for the Q3 on Friday October 01. But will they be able to seriously affect the USD/JPY quotes? In our view, not likely.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Whales prepare for Bear Attack


This week's BTC/USD and ETH/USD charts are very similar to those of the S&P500 and Dow Jones stock indices. The reason is fluctuating investor sentiment.

The risk of default on obligations of one of the largest construction companies in China, Evergrande, which has accumulated debt in the amount of 2 trillion yuan ($ 309 billion), provoked panic in the financial markets on September 20. Investors began to get rid of risky assets, crashing stock markets. The cryptocurrency market did not escape the sell-off either. If bitcoin was at $52,870 on Monday, it fell to $39,666 for a short time on Tuesday, losing up to 25% of its value.

The panic caused by Evergrande subsided on September 22, followed by a correction, and moderate risk appetite returned to investors after the Fed meeting, and the charts crept further north. However, it was too early to think that the sell-off was over. After rising to $45,150, bitcoin flew down again on Friday, September 24, then fought back and is trading at $43,000 at the time of writing.

The reason for another fall was China again, with the People's Bank of China declaring all cryptocurrency related activities illegal, promising to take tough action against violators. The ban includes the services of foreign crypto exchanges provided in the country, among other things.

In addition to pressure from regulators, whale behavior is another warning sign. On the one hand, the number of coins they own is growing. If in February there were an average of 3236 BTC per whale,  this figure increased to 3722 BTC in September. But the number of whales themselves has decreased by 15% and now stands at 2,125. This is thelowest for the last 15 months. In addition, significant amounts of their coins have flowed from their wallets to exchange accounts. This suggests that the whales are preparing for a possible continuation of the bear market.

Of course, whales are not a single entity. And despite the general desire to make a profit, they can be divided into short-term and long-term investors. The former are prone to speculation and quick fixation of small profits. The second, such as MicroStrategy, prefer to restock on price downturns. And it is thanks to them that the market is kept from a complete collapse.

As for investor sentiment, the data provided by Glassnode in the latest report is interesting. Since late July, while the price of bitcoin has been climbing from $31,000 to $52,000, long-term holders have sold coins they purchased between the $18,000 and $31,000 levels. According to analysts, this suggests that some of the passive investors have moved into the category of active traders selling coins that were purchased at close to current prices.

The total crypto market capitalization has again dropped below the psychologically important threshold of $2.0 trillion and is at $1.84 trillion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has moved from the neutral zone (48 points) to the Fear zone. It was 27 on Thursday, September 23, at the low of the week, and it grew slightly on Friday September 24 - up to 33 points.

In general, the crypto market is now in a state of uncertainty, some influencers predict unprecedented growth for it, while others, like the president of Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff, believe that this “bubble” will burst soon. Of course, this discord applies not only to bitcoin, but also to ethereum.

The ETH price dropped 40%, from $4,020 to $2,650 in just three days last week, from September 20 to September 22. At the same time, JPMorgan bank strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believes that it should be even lower. In his opinion, the fair price for this altcoin is $1,500, based on the metrics of network activity.

The opposite view is taken by cryptocurrency trader and analyst Lark Davis, who said that ETH will reach $10,000 in the coming weeks. He noted that large investors, banks and corporations continue to invest in the ethereum ecosystem. Davis cited its limited supply in the market as another factor in favor of altcoin growth. 87% of Ethereum coins have not moved for more than three months, indicating investor reluctance to sell their savings. In addition, a significant shortage is created by burning of underlying transaction fees as well as by an increase in ethereum 2.0 staking deposits.

And in conclusion, one discovery that could be called a sensation. It turns out that exactly 100 years ago, the famous auto industrialist Henry Ford was already putting forward the idea of replacing gold with a so-called “energy currency.” The issue was raised by him in the New York Tribune as early as 1921. It is striking that Ford's proposed project to launch a new currency is strikingly similar to the description of BTC, which was presented in 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto.

The front page of the newspaper featured an article detailing the "energy currency" that Ford believed could replace gold and become the backbone of a new era's monetary system. This currency would be fully functioning on the basis of "units of force", and it was proposed to build a huge hydroelectric power station to issue it. Thus, it could become the most stable and secured monetary unit and would prevent the growth of the rich who profit from speculating in gold.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

CryptoNews of the Week


- The risk of default by Evergrande, one of China's largest construction companies, which has accumulated 2 trillion yuan ($309 billion) in debt, triggered panic in financial markets on September 20. Investors began to get rid of risk assets, tumbling stock markets. The cryptocurrency market did not escape the sell-off either. While bitcoin was at $52,870 on Monday, it fell short term to $39,666 on Wednesday, losing up to 25% of its value.
Evergrande's structure includes 200 offshore and 2,000 Chinese companies operating in multiple countries, according to Bloomberg. The 2 trillion-yuan liability is the world largest debt and is equivalent to 2% of China's GDP. Evergrande's net worth is about $3.9 billion, nearly 80 times less than its $309 billion debt.

- The US Treasury has included the Suex cryptocurrency exchanger in the sanctions list, as well as 25 addresses in the bitcoin, ethereum and tether networks. According to the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), at least eight ransomware, scam projects and darknet marketplaces passed through Suex.
Chainalysis, an analytics company involved in the investigation, found that Suex had received more than $480 million in bitcoin since February 2018. At least $160 million of that amount is related to illegal activities.

- The president of Euro Pacific Capital, a well-known supporter of gold Peter Schiff once again criticized bitcoin and allowed the imminent end of the "cryptocurrency bubble". “There are now more than 12,000 tokens, 84 of which currently have a market cap above $1 billion. There's nothing special about bitcoin. Altcoin supply will continue to grow until the cryptocurrency bubble bursts. Supply will exceed demand and prices will collapse almost overnight," Schiff wrote. In his view, the first cryptocurrency would “only take money from the pockets of people stupid enough to buy it.”
In the comments, the financier reaffirmed his commitment to the precious metal and pointed out that the value of gold is "in its usefulness." “You can do more with gold than with any other metal, and it does not lose its unique properties over time,” said Schiff.

- Bitcoin is a monetary standard that will become a global reserve currency one day. This opinion was expressed by the head of SkyBridge Capital Anthony Scaramucci. He urged people to learn more about the crypto industry, even if they are skeptical about the digital asset market. According to him, it is important to understand “why you don’t want to own digital gold”.
“Bitcoin is volatile because it is at an early stage of adoption. Amazon had the same volatile curve 24 years ago. But if you invested $10,000 in Amazon shares at the IPO, you would receive $21 million today,” explained Scaramucci. He advised newcomers to the crypto industry to allocate up to 5% of their investment portfolio to digital assets, explaining the recommendation as high profits if the market grows and low losses if it collapses.

- An anonymous bitcoin wallet owner who bought $8.1k worth of cryptocurrency in 2012 has come forward almost 10 years later. According to the profile publication Decrypt, their account held more than 616 bitcoins. During its storage, each coin has increased in value nearly 3,500 times, with the total value of its assets approaching $28 million.

- The fair price of Ethereum based on network activity is $1,500, JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtsoglou said in a Markets Insider commentary. “We're looking at hashrate and unique address counts to try to understand the value of ethereum,” added the JPMorgan strategist. According to him, the second-most capitalized cryptocurrency network is less attractive than its price suggests. Panigirtzoglou noted the growing competition from Solana, Cardano and other blockchains.
For reference, the ETH price has dropped 40% from $4,020 to $2,650 this week from September 20-22.

- The opposite point of view is held by cryptocurrency trader and analyst Lark Davis. He believes that the ETH rate will reach $10,000 in the coming weeks. The analyst notes that large investors, banks and corporations continue to invest in the ethereum ecosystem.
Davis cited its limited supply in the market as another factor in favor of the growth of this altcoin. Currently, the reserves of the second cryptocurrency on cryptocurrency wallets are at record lows. This shows the reluctance of investors to sell their holdings in ETH. “87 per cent of coins have not moved for more than three months. 87 per cent! That's crazy, “ the analyst exclaimed.
In addition, a significant shortage of ethereum is created by burning of underlying transaction fees as well as by an increase in ethereum 2.0 staking deposits.

- While the price of bitcoin has climbed from $31,000 to $52,000 since the end of July, long-term holders have sold the coins they purchased between the $18,000 and $31,000 levels, consistently making a profit of about $1 billion per day. This data is provided in the latest report by Glassnode. Long-term in this classification refers to holders who received their coins more than 155 days ago.
“Note that these prices formed in the 2020-2021 bull market and suggest that long-term bitcoin investors may be becoming more active traders, record profits, use derivatives to hedge risks, or speculate more than in Q2,” Glassnode experts write. “This may also suggest uncertainty in the current market structure, as coins that have been purchased at close to current prices are being spent.”
At the same time, the authors note that despite the increased sales from this group, there was also a strong demand. As confirmation, they point to the fact that the aggregate balance of bitcoin on the exchanges continued to decline and hit a new multi-year low of 13% of turnover before the collapse on September 20.

- The FBI received over 1,800 complaints related to cryptocurrency fraud on dating sites between January 1, 2021, and July 31, 2021. Victims' losses are estimated at $133.4 million.
People are more likely to suffer from depression and loneliness during the pandemic, so dating and socializing apps have become very popular. First, the scammers establish "contact" with the potential victim. After getting the victim's trust, the attacker claims to be versed in cryptocurrency investments and trading and directs the person to a fraudulent site. Once a user has invested a certain amount, the scammer allows them to withdraw the “first profit”: a small amount of money, thus gaining the trust of the victim. The scammer then advises the user to deposit a larger sum. If the “client” stops receiving funds, then communication with the client ends as well.

- Financial market experts have recently conducted a study, the subject of which was the proposal of the famous car manufacturer Henry Ford to replace gold with the so-called "energy currency". The issue was raised by him in the New York Tribune as early as 1921. The study culminated in the fact that Ford's proposed project to launch a new currency is strikingly similar to the description of BTC, which was presented in 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto.
The front page of the newspaper featured an article detailing the "energy currency" that Ford believed could end wars and become the backbone of a new era's monetary system.
The auto industrialist proposed replacing gold with a currency that would fully function on the basis of "units of force", for which he could build a huge hydroelectric power station. Thus, the potentially created currency would have been able to become the most stable and secured monetary unit of the time and would prevent a massive increase in the rich profiting from speculation with gold.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

EUR/USD: Awaiting US Fed Decision

The dollar continues to strengthen, and the EUR/USD pair moves south. Starting on Monday September 13 at 1.1810, it ends the five-day run at 1.1730. The movement is certainly not very strong, only 80 points. But it must be taken into account that it was 1.1908 two weeks ago, on September 03.

 US retail sales statistics were much better than expected. Sales showed a 0.7% increase in August, although according to the forecast, should have decreased by 0.8%. The number of repeat applications for unemployment benefits, which was supposed to decrease by 72K, fell by 187K.

Such strong statistics raised the likelihood that the Fed will announce the curtailment of $ 120 billion of the quantitative easing (QE) program to 55% at its next meeting on September 21-22.

As a result of the dollar emission, carried out by the FRS for the last year and a half, the US national debt has grown to 130% of GDP, and the budget deficit exceeds a trillion dollars. As a result, it is not just about winding down the fiscal and credit stimulus, but also a shift to a tight fiscal policy. The Democratic Party and President Biden's Administration have introduced a draft tax reform to the U.S. Congress, which includes a sharp increase in federal income taxes. If passed, the tax rate in such states as New York or California could exceed 60%. In addition, a three per cent wealth tax is proposed for the first time in US history.

The stock market responded to all this news with active sales. The S&P500 index fell 4,550 to 4435, the Dow Jones dropped 35517 to 34510 in two weeks. The gold price also fell 4.5%.

As for Europe, it was gripped by the real panic associated with the record rise in gas prices, which at one point reached $970 per 1,000 cubic metres. (It was 2.8 times lower a year ago). In anticipation of the autumn-winter heating season, the necessary energy reserves are only 75% (according to other estimates, only 50%). Such energy shortages could not only drive up prices but also reduce production. And this is fraught with a new recession and will definitely not benefit the common European currency.

By far the most important event of the coming week will be the Federal Reserve meeting on September 21-22. The interest rate is likely to remain unchanged at 0.25%. Therefore, first of all, investors are waiting for signals or even a concrete decision about the beginning of the QE curtailment. As we have written before, more members of the Fed's leadership are taking a hawkish stance and supporting a reduction in the asset purchase program as early as this year. And if the hawks win at this meeting, we can expect a sharp strengthening of the dollar, and a further fall in stock indices and gold prices.

At the moment, 60% of experts vote for the rise of the US currency and the decline of the EUR/USD pair, while 30%, on the contrary, believe that nothing  will happen at the Federal Reserve meeting and the pair will win back north. The remaining 10% of analysts abstain from forecasts.

The indicator readings on D1 are as follows. Among the oscillators, 75% are colored red and 25% give signals that the pair is oversold. Among the trend indicators, 100% point to the south.

Support levels are 1.1705, 1.1665, 1.1600 and 1525. Resistance levels are 1.1770, 1.1800, 1.1845, 1.1908, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100.

In addition to the Fed meeting, events in the coming week include the release of German and Eurozone PMI statistics on Thursday September 23.

GBP/USD: BoE Hawks vs Fed Hawks

The British pound, although down against the dollar, is generally holding up better than the common European currency. As expected by most analysts (60%), the GBP/USD pair went north on Monday and tested the 1.3900 high the next day, helped by good statistics from the UK labor market. This was followed by a reversal, a gradual decline and the pair's finish at 1.3730. As a result, it failed to update the two-week low of 1.3725, although it was very keen to do so.

The GBP/USD pair hardly reacted to the above forecast inflation data in Britain (CPI rose 3.2% in August vs. 2.0% in July vs. 2.9% forecast). However, such indicators reinforce the hawks' position at the Bank of England. So far, the forces of "hawks" and "doves" are equal there. According to Bank Governor Andrew Bailey, four members supported raising the key interest rate and four opposed at the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Analysts believe that the likely rate hike in February 2022 will support the pound and further declines in the GBP/USD pair will be limited. If that expectation grows into confidence, the UK currency could move up strongly.

We will not only have an important meeting of the US Federal Reserve this week, but also a meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, September 23, from which investors also want to receive signals on the timing of tightening monetary policy. And here, in contrast to the EUR/USD forecast, most experts side with the pound. 65% of analysts vote for the growth of the GBP/USD pair, and 35% for its further decline. But the technical indicators' readings are 100% in line with the previous pair.

Resistances are at levels 1.3765, 1.3810, 1.3910, then 1.3960, 1.4000 and 1.4100. The bulls aim to refresh the June 01 high at 1.4250. Supports are in zones 1.3700-1.3725, 1.3665 and 1.3600.

USD/JPY: Zero Again


The coming week can be safely called the week of the central banks. In addition to the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings, investors will learn the views of the People's Bank of China and the Bank of Japan on the economic situation in their countries on Wednesday September 22, as well as decisions on interest rates of their national currencies. With a probability close to 100%, the yen rate will remain the same, at minus 0.1%. But BOJ leaders have a lot more to think about: they need to fill the economy's 22 trillion yen (approx. $200 billion) deficit.

However, the USD/JPY pair reacts to such figures and the news quite calmly. Unnecessary excitement is not needed in a quiet Japanese harbor.

The USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. So this time, having started the five-day week at 109.85, it finished the week almost at the same place where it started, at the level of 109.95. At the same time, the experts' forecast can be considered to have come true: most of them (50%) sided with the bears last week and 35% took a neutral stance. Everything went exactly according to this scenario: at first the pair went down sharply, and then, having reached a strong medium-term support at 109.10, it failed to break it, turned around and went back.

The pair was supported by positive US retail sales statistics. In addition, according to a number of experts, the outflow of Japanese capital into foreign bonds did not allow it to go far down. Japanese investors hardly bought any bonds from other countries in 2021. But the sharp rise in US Treasuries yields pushed them to buy more than 1.76 billion yen worth of securities this Thursday. That has become a record since last November.

The experts' forecast for the near future looks like this: 50% of them side with the bears once again, 35% with the bulls, and 15% have taken a neutral stance. As for the indicators on D1, there is a complete diversity among the oscillators after such week results, while the green ones have a convincing advantage for the trend indicators.

Support levels are unchanged: 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The dream of the bears (it seems already unrealizable) is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 110.15, 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to reach the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Black to Slightly Greenish

El Salvador entered into force a law recognizing bitcoin as a legal means of payment on Tuesday, September 7. And the quotes of the flagship cryptocurrency fell by 18%  in a matter of hours: from $52,870 to $43,205. The market is slowly trying to recover after this "black" day. At the time of writing this review, the BTC/USD pair had risen to the $47,300-48,000 zone. Of course, it's not much, which is why the past week can only be described as “slightly greenish.”

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen by only 2 points, from 46 to 48, and is in the central neutral zone. The total crypto market capitalization remained virtually unchanged, at $2.120 trillion compared to $2.100 trillion a week ago.

The news background looks “slightly greenish” too. The most interesting news is that Panama has decided to follow El Salvador's example. A draft law on cryptocurrencies was presented to the Congress of this country. Panama currently uses the US dollar as a means of payment. If the law is passed, it will also be possible to use BTC and ETH. Unlike El Salvador, the Panamanian option does not provide for the mandatory use of cryptocurrencies, that is, citizens and companies will be able to freely decide whether they want to accept cryptocurrencies or be limited to just the dollar.

The law has not yet been passed, but analysts are already wondering how the market will react to its entry into force. Should we wait for another "black" day of the calendar, as in the case of El Salvador?

One more piece of news. Analytics software provider MicroStrategy additionally purchased 5,050 BTC at $48,099. This was announced by the head of the company Michael Saylor. As of September 12, MicroStrategy owns 114,042 BTC. A total of $3.16 billion was spent on their purchase, thus the average cost was $27,713 per coin.

Other US companies that have made similar large investments in cryptocurrency include Jack Dorsey's Square and Elon Musk's Tesla. Now they are set to be joined by billionaire Alan Howard's Brevan Howard Asset Management hedge fund, which opened a dedicated BH Digital division for these purposes.

Influencers continue to predict a great future for major cryptocurrencies. So, Austrian economist Ronald-Peter Stoferle, managing partner of investment company Incrementum AG, said that "in five to ten years, bitcoin will rise to heights that we cannot currently imagine." At the same time, the top manager noted that the next phase of bitcoin's growth has not yet begun. According to him, the rise in price of bitcoin will occur when the asset becomes "a means of inflation protection during the ongoing large monetary experiments."

Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood expects bitcoin to rise to $500,000 within five years. In a conversation with CNBC, Wood explained that the validity of her forecast will depend on whether companies continue to diversify their bitcoin reserves and whether institutional investors decide to place 5% of assets in it.

The head of Ark Invest also highlighted the potential of Ethereum, saying that her company will likely continue to adhere to a 60% Bitcoin and 40% Ethereum strategy.

In terms of shorter-term forecasts, crypto trading veteran Ton Vays believes that the BTC/USD pair will complete the current correction relatively soon, and then rise sharply to six-digit levels. Vays explained that the recent move in the BTC price is reminiscent of July, when the flagship cryptocurrency fell to a one-year low below $29,000 and then aggressively rose to $52,000 in less than six weeks.

According to Ton Vays, bitcoin is likely to fall short and give traders an opportunity to buy near the $40,000 level. After that, it will sharply bounce off this support and rush upward. “The $40,000 low will come either next week or may be delayed until early October, and then we will cross that area with a rise to $50,000 in mid to late October. We will be over $65,000 by early November, and probably $100,000 by the end of December,” he said.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

CryptoNews of the Week


- Analytics software provider MicroStrategy has purchased an additional 5,050 BTC at $48,099 for approximately $243 million. This was announced by the head of the company Michael Saylor. As of September 12, MicroStrategy owns 114,042 BTC. A total of $3.16 billion was spent on their purchase, thus the average cost was $27,713 per coin.
MicroStrategy was the first public company to invest a portion of its equity capital ($ 250 million) in bitcoin in August 2020. Later, the company's board of directors approved a policy to increase investment in digital gold at the expense of cash reserves. Other US companies that have made similar large investments in cryptocurrency include Jack Dorsey's Square and Elon Musk's Tesla. Now they are set to be joined by billionaire Alan Howard's Brevan Howard Asset Management hedge fund, which opened a dedicated BH Digital division for these purposes.

- US citizen of Canadian origin Galeb Alaumari was found guilty of helping North Korean military intelligence officers launder funds obtained as a result of hacking of cryptocurrency exchanges and hacker attacks on various companies and financial institutions. The WannaCry ransomware stole more than $1.3 billion in total. This includes the cyberattack on Sony Pictures Entertainment, the attempted hacking of banks in Vietnam, Bangladesh, Taiwan, Mexico, Malta, and the theft of various personal data.
Galeb Alaumari said he was responsible for cashing out funds through fake bank accounts and cryptocurrency. The defendant also confessed to sending out phishing emails. One of the victims of the scheme was a university in Canada, which transferred $9.4 million to fraudsters, believing it was communicating with a major construction company. The US Federal court sentenced Alaumari to 11 years in prison and a $30 million fine.

- Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood expects bitcoin to rise to $500,000 within five years. In a conversation with CNBC, Wood explained that the validity of her forecast will depend on whether companies continue to diversify their bitcoin reserves and whether institutional investors decide to place 5% of assets in it.
The head of Ark Invest noted that if she had to choose one cryptocurrency, she wouldn't hesitate to prefer bitcoin “because states now consider it a means of payment.”
Wood also highlighted the potential of ethereum. “Ethereum is experiencing an explosion of developer activity thanks to NFT and DeFi. I am fascinated by what is happening in DeFi, which is dramatically reducing the cost of infrastructure for financial services. Although I know that the financial industry does not welcome this right now. We are nevertheless likely to continue with the 60% bitcoin and 40% ethereum strategy,” she added.
Earlier, analysts at Standard Chartered bank predicted bitcoin to rise to $175,000 and ethereum to $35,000.

- After El Salvador recognized bitcoin as legal tender, Panama decided to follow suit. A cryptocurrency bill has been submitted to the Panamanian Congress. Panama does not have either a central bank currently or its own official currency, and the US dollar is used as a means of payment.
If the law is passed, legal entities and individuals of Panama will be able to freely use BTC and ETH as a means of payment for any government or commercial transactions. In addition, it is proposed to transfer public records to the blockchain and digitize legislative and administrative acts. “Such a move will help create a lot of jobs, attract investment and make the government more transparent,” the bill's initiators said.
Unlike El Salvador, the Panamanian option does not provide for the mandatory use of cryptocurrencies, that is, citizens and companies will be able to freely decide whether they want to accept cryptocurrencies or be limited to just the dollar.

- A recent survey by Sherlock Communications found that almost half of Brazilians agree that bitcoin should be accepted as the country's official currency, as El Salvador did. 48% of respondents voted for this (17% support without any doubt, 31% with some conditions). Only 21% rejected this idea (9% categorically, 12% moderately). The remaining respondents (31 percent) maintain a neutral stance.

- Artist Monica Rizzolli earned 1623 ETH (about $5.4 million at the time of the transaction) for the sale of the NFT series "Fragments of an Infinite Field" on the Art Blocks marketplace. The collection, consisting of 1,024 generative images, sold out on September 13 in less than an hour. The price for individual copies started from 10 ETH. Well-known NFT collectors Cozomo de' Medici and JDH spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy individual paintings.
The main parameter for creating the composition was the seasons, which set the colors and the phenomena depicted in the picture. Subsequently, some of the collection's items were resold on the OpenSea marketplace for 69 ETH (about $229,000).

- The State Bureau of Investigation of Ukraine has established the involvement of three employees of the cyber department of the Security Service of this country (SBU) in the kidnapping of a cryptocurrency trader.
According to the investigation, SBU agents received information about the trader having a large amount in cryptocurrency in autumn 2020. They organized his abduction, took him to the forest and beat him for an hour and a half, demanding that $200,000 be handed over to them. After being refused, the agents moved the abductee to police headquarters. They continued to extort funds There, lowering the amount to $80,000. The trader was forced to agree, and called his wife, who transferred 7 BTC (at the time of the transaction, the equivalent of the ransom amount) to the cryptocurrency wallet specified by the extortionists.
All three face charges of robbery with violence, kidnapping and abuse of authority. The investigation also examines the involvement of eight other SBU officers in the crime.

- Austrian economist Ronald-Peter Stöferle, managing partner of investment company Incrementum AG, said that "in five to ten years, bitcoin will rise to heights that we cannot currently imagine." At the same time, the top manager noted that the next phase of bitcoin's growth has not yet begun. According to him, the rise in price of bitcoin will occur when the asset becomes "a means of inflation protection during the ongoing large monetary experiments."

- Crypto trading veteran Ton Weiss predicts that bitcoin (BTC) will complete the current correction relatively soon and then rise sharply to six-digit levels.
Weiss explained during the new strategy session that the recent move in the BTC price is reminiscent of July, when the flagship cryptocurrency fell to a one-year low below $29,000 and then aggressively rose to $52,000 in less than six weeks.
According to Weiss, bitcoin is likely to fall short and give traders an opportunity to buy near the $40,000 level. After which it will bounce back sharply from that support and go up.
“The $40,000 low will come either next week or may be delayed until early October, and then we will cross that area with a rise to $50,000 in mid to late October. We will be over $65,000 by early November, and probably $100,000 by the end of December,” he said.


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