2. News and future events should be already priced in, except a black swan.
Why do you think Bitcoin will probably not going lower than 40.000?
BTC price going below $40k, Possible but I don't think so. If you look at the daily chart price for Bitcoin, you would realize that the Daily price candles are tightening up instead of the longer downward pattern and I believe the next few days will prove where the price is headed properly.
As for the rich lobbying to keep the price up, that too is very unlikely even though many institutions and rich people probably bought with this price range but I do believe if they really have that much manipulating power over the market, they would even bring it down the more to buy more at even cheaper prices.