Topic: Not to spread FUD or anything, but here's some food for thought - page 2. (Read 3548 times)

This is starting to remind me of those discussion with jorge, when he wants to find out the definitive "reason" for each rally or crash

Keep in mind, I believe that technicals rule the market, or maybe the slightly weaker claim: market sentiment (which doesn't require external reasons) heavily factors into the interpretation of the fundamentals, to the point where it makes sense to say "technicals rule the market".

So, the answer is probably somewhere in between cyclical market sentiment, professionalization of mining (with higher ratio of coins sold vs. coins held),  professionalization of trading (with more emphasis on short term profits), lasting negative influence on user confidence from mtgox failure (something that this forum is very reluctant to accept, imo), and uncertainty if growth of user adoption is accurately captured by an exponential growth function (I know, hashrate very clearly is, but that's not the same as user adoption).

Right now 3'400 BTCs are mined every day. That's the equivalent of 1.3 million $ every day of buy support (new money) that is needed to just sustain the current price.

But I suppose your question is: what is causing the reduced influx of new capital, compared to 2013, for example.

Wanderfromthenorth, I'm afraid that if you are looking for some objective discussion on this topic, you're going to be very frustrated trying to find it here.

I know that as a long term bull, I have been.

The perma-bulls just want to keep shouting "Relax, everything is fine, buy buy buy! You really don't get what's going on!" in a very callous, condescending manner.  Without any discussion or evidence backing up their reasoning at all.  Or they continue to shout "Bitcoin is still up 400% from last year!"
Reason: They just don't fkn know what the market is doing right now, and apparently don't care because supposed 'cheap coins'.  But cheap is completely relative month to month. Never mind the fact that there doesn't appear to be much real support at this level, and previous support from May @ $420 has been broken.  And nobody that bought since Jan 1st. really cares what the price was last year, at all.

The bear-trolls, well, they're just as useless.  The above post is a clear example.
Reason: Because the trolling has gotten so bad here with throwaway accounts that it's virtually impossible to separate the true trolls from the objective bears.  And some of the object bears that I might have listened to in the past have completely disappeared from this forum of late.

So what are we left with?  Yourself.  Just listen to your own intuition, buy if you think we're close to the bottom, or hold off if you think we're going much lower.

3 months ago I would have concluded that where we are currently is the bottom.  But now I just don't know anymore, and the whale traders seem to absolutely not give a shit.  They will dump this market into the ground if it suits them.  I'm just hoping they will eventually stop when they've had enough and can't find any more real buyers.

...
Do you realise that the Bitcoins mined daily 2 or 3 years ago (and same last year) were worth (in $) a lot less than what they are worth today?
If the BTCs mined every day are worth $5 each instead of $1200 or $400  A LOT LESS of $ worth of buy support is needed to sustain or increase the exchange rate.
...

Alright, I'll paraphrase: There is a strong pull downwards by the inflation inherent to Bitcoin's emission phase. Without major influx of new capital, this will greatly depress price. It appears that this year the influx of capital is not sufficient to overcome the downward pull from emission.

But I suppose your question is: what is causing the reduced influx of new capital, compared to 2013, for example.

This is starting to remind me of those discussion with jorge, when he wants to find out the definitive "reason" for each rally or crash

Keep in mind, I believe that technicals rule the market, or maybe the slightly weaker claim: market sentiment (which doesn't require external reasons) heavily factors into the interpretation of the fundamentals, to the point where it makes sense to say "technicals rule the market".

So, the answer is probably somewhere in between cyclical market sentiment, professionalization of mining (with higher ratio of coins sold vs. coins held),  professionalization of trading (with more emphasis on short term profits), lasting negative influence on user confidence from mtgox failure (something that this forum is very reluctant to accept, imo), and uncertainty if growth of user adoption is accurately captured by an exponential growth function (I know, hashrate very clearly is, but that's not the same as user adoption).

The point is, the mining of new coins is not causing the drop. Proof: last year new coins were mined at the same or higher rate and the exchange rate increased. New coins create downward pressure but that effect has existed since the dawn of bitcoin.

This is starting to remind me of those discussion with jorge, when he wants to find out the definitive "reason" for each rally or crash

Keep in mind, I believe that technicals rule the market, or maybe the slightly weaker claim: market sentiment (which doesn't require external reasons) heavily factors into the interpretation of the fundamentals, to the point where it makes sense to say "technicals rule the market".

So, the answer is probably somewhere in between cyclical market sentiment, professionalization of mining (with higher ratio of coins sold vs. coins held),  professionalization of trading (with more emphasis on short term profits), lasting negative influence on user confidence from mtgox failure (something that this forum is very reluctant to accept, imo), and uncertainty if growth of user adoption is accurately captured by an exponential growth function (I know, hashrate very clearly is, but that's not the same as user adoption).

Appearances can be deceptive. All we know for sure is that on exchange there are more bitcoins for sale than buyers at the moment. Bitcoin's inbuilt inflation is decelerating with each block halving yet the price has risen throughout that time with bubbles and bursts. Why is this any different from before?

Alright, I'll paraphrase: There is a strong pull downwards by the inflation inherent to Bitcoin's emission phase. Without major influx of new capital, this will greatly depress price. It appears that this year the influx of capital is not sufficient to overcome the downward pull from emission.

But I suppose your question is: what is causing the reduced influx of new capital, compared to 2013, for example.

The point is, the mining of new coins is not causing the drop. Proof: last year new coins were mined at the same or higher rate and the exchange rate increased. New coins create downward pressure but that effect has existed since the dawn of bitcoin.

The point is, the mining of new coins is not causing the drop. Proof: last year new coins were mined at the same or higher rate and the exchange rate increased. New coins create downward pressure but that effect has existed since the dawn of bitcoin.

Already answered, now in bold.

(The same old disclaimer as always: no, I'm not a "Bitcoin skeptic", or "perma bear". Just pointing out a possible, quite likely in fact, reason for the long price decline we're seeing.)

It didn't happen with the usd denominated bonds, so why should it, in bitcoin?

Like, totally!

I mean, how on earth could an increase of the monetary base by about 14% this year lead to a lower evaluation per unit if insufficient speculative or usage-driven capital enters the market to counter that inflation.

What a preposterous throught.

Because USD is the world reserve currency, and USD bonds are in demand.

It didn't happen with the usd denominated bonds, so why should it, in bitcoin?

So now we're banking on supposed invisible/non-existent support money, and what ifs about who is going to invest in the near future?  Really?  How about we look objectively at what's happened in the market over the last 10 months instead?  How about we consider the mood of everyone that has tried to get involved in bitcoin since Jan 1st, and what they might have told their friends and family about their experience so far?


Stop wasting your time trying to think objectively and rationally, Oda.  This sub forum doesn't have the ability or even common sense to debate with you.  

The other thing I keep hearing is that "Bitcoin daily transactions are actually on the rise!"  I guess no one would consider the fact that this is the acceleration of selling transactions as opposed to buy and hold?