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1º Consider that cryptomarket will follow the same exact trend as last year, is........being a little ignorant.
2º Last year there was growth BECAUSE THERE WAS DEMAND. Nowadays, there is no demand, and quite the contrary, many countrys are looking after exchanges because there are a HUGE amount of false orders that would try to manipulate the market. This is being investigated at the moment.
3º Today ETH is losing 6%. considering the price 7 days ago , it has lost almost 4%. it's 61% down from max value in January 2018. Considering the value of ETH 30 days ago, it's down by 23%.
4º As time passes by, the barriers for bulls are lower and lower. First there was a barrier of 800$ (6th May 2018) which ETH could not hold for long (just about 4 days i remember). Now it can only hold 600$ but it will not go higher than that and today, cannot keep it.
5º a huge amount of countrys are trying to regulate cryptos, and one thing among them is clear: Those regulations are NOT FRIENDLY WITH CRYPTO. End of Anonimity, Taxes, regulations, controls and legislations are NOT A GOOD THING FOR CRYPTO. In fact, crypto is a way of money loundering, drugs and fireguns market, tax evasion. The moment regulations appeared, almost 60% of the total market cap disappeared. This is A FACT. People don't want to accept it, but it is as it is.
6º Technical analysis shows that we have entered a bear trend right now, and that there is no clue of where it will stop losing value. For those of you who read this, and you are holding ETH, i´ll give you a technical analysis right now. It is possible that ETH goes to 540$ today. A friend of mine, trader, has told me a few minutes ago that at that level automated stop-losses will jump. If this occurs, we can slide to an unknown value.
7º Please, stop lying and telling people to hold. The argument to hold is to BELIEVE that it will recover. What if that doesn't occur?? it's very funny for me to see a vast amount of comments saying: well, i said this, i f.up my guess, but hey, just wait 3,4 or 5 months till the bull run. WTF are you talking about?? If you cannot predict what will happen tomorrow, how are you going to predict a bull run in 5 months??
8º another thing to consider is network hashrate. At weekends many entreprises and companys leave their computers working. It just doesn't make sense that at weekends we see almost all around an increase in hashrate. ETH from yesterday to today has seen an increase of more than 8.000GH/s. That's a brutal increase from nowhere. This situation is harder for miners, since they have to care about electricity bill, and the combination of more hashrate and less value is a explosive combination.
9º a lot of important investors, and people related to trading, are continuosly reducing the price expected for BTC. Some of them, have reduced from 40.000$ to no more than 12.000$ and with negative expectations for the future.
Will there be a bull run?? i don't know. What i know for a fact is that there will be bear trend for long and that investors are leaving crypto because there is no stability, huge volatility, agressive trading, and intra-day selling. The best thing i can tell you, is to invest only the money YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.
This is not looking well.