Topic: Now that we've reached the 250kb soft limit... - page 3. (Read 3709 times)

Exactly. If the miners want to see Bitcoin scale at all they will have to agree to a hard fork. As long as a good solution is agreed upon, by the dev team at least.

11. News articles start appearing in the media pointing our the 7 tps hard transaction limit as a fatal flaw in Bitcoin.
12. At best, fees never exceed 1/10 to 1/5 the block subsidy.
13. Businesses investment drastically slows with regards to all forms of distributed cryptocurrency and more capital is directed towards centralized solutions.
14. Miners realize they killed the goose that laid the golden egg.

The network isn't controlled by the miners. A hard fork the miners "refuse to accept" will have new miners that take their place.

Not at all, in fact if you read my post you realize that this is bullish for Bitcoin's value and security.

You forgot:

15. Looking at profitability of miners every Joe Shmoe buys an asic machine until mining sucks.

Not another disguised post promoting the scam & premined ripple currency after being bribed by OpenCoin Inc again..

I suspect that you underestimate the power of a gambling addiction.

Just reiterating my prediction so we can see how it plays out. We are currently on #2, a lot of unconfirmed transactions and starting to see #3. We should see transaction fees increase and also more and more blocks larger than 250kb as miners uncap the soft limit.


In this order:

1. Most blocks are at or near the 250 kilobyte soft limit.
2. The memory pool of transactions grows due to insufficient space in blocks.
3. Users notice trend of transactions taking longer to confirm, or not confirming at all.
4. Fees increase as users pay more to improve confirmation times.
5. Miners (or mining pools) modify code to select transactions with the highest fees per kilobyte to fit into blocks. They remote the 250 kilobyte soft limit. Some miners disallow free transactions entirely.
6. Transactions clear much more quickly now, but fees decrease.
7. Blocks increase in size until they are at or near the one megabyte hard limit.
8. Fees start increasing. Free transactions rarely confirm at all now.
9. Small transactions are eliminated since they are not economically feasible. SatoshiDice increases betting minimums along with fees. The volume of SatoshiDice transactions decrease.
10. Users at the margins of transaction profitability with respect to fees are pushed off the network.
11. Many people, most non-technical, clamor for the block size limit to be lifted.
12. Fees reach an equilibrium where they remain stable.
13. Spurred by the profitability of Bitcoin transactions, alternate chains appear to capture the users that Bitcoin lost.
14. Pleased with their profitability, miners refuse to accept any hard fork to block size.