Topic: Now we know my posts about ASICs were correct - page 2. (Read 2683 times)

Long term GPU will be killed off . In australia power is now at 0.20  kw/h and will rise

bitcoin have to be above $4.80 just to break even with power  -- I have sold all my GPU's
however I agree about 70% of the network power is from GPU's
FPGA's only shipping in small numbers because they are expensive and only a handfull of small suppliers
I think if BitForce SC Mini Rig comes out is will complely change bitcoin mining
Ie GPU and FPGA will no longer generate enought bitcoins to make any money for miners

+1 been saying this all along; FPGA for mining is only good if you can later sell it for a reasonable price after having paid it off.
NOBODY will buy FPGA from you for other purposes most likely because it does not have RAM or good I/O pins.
With introduction of ASIC all FPGA really become useless because nobody wants it ( for mining or otherwise ).
At least GPU you can sell on eBay for gaming or something. 

OP is just butthurt ( I have to say this : like TONS of other GPU miners with cheap electricity on the forumz ) that his GPU farm is worthless.

Either surrender to BFL or get out of the game !

Nobody can stop change / ASIC ...

I would venture a 'guess' and say that GPUs still make up atleast 70+% of the current 11.x TH Network, so nothing has been 'killed off' as of yet.

FPGA market penetration has not been that great, considering the delivery times for most.

Also, ASIC will not SLOWLY kill off everything else - it will kill it off decisively and quickly....LOL

Denying the evidence while hoping people follow angelic virtues is not going to change human nature.

It's only a new problem, where we need to find new solutions, that's all.

If anyone has killed the mining market, then it's the people that started building mining rigs specifically for mining.
If everyone used their own PC only, and mined on the CPU+Single GPU then such discussions would never take place.

When people started mining for profit only, it set a chain reaction = how to mine more while consuming less ?

This led to FPGA slowly killing off GPU and now ASIC slowly killing off everything else.

+1

ASICs are great!  Seriously.  Examining ASIC alone is just a technology shift.  Considering technological efficiencies brought by ASIC we will benefit.

It's the ASIC market that, where if ASIC pricing is guided by BTC mining difficulty alone, a vicious cycle could (probably will) form where early adopters overpay and late comers get dismal ROI at best.

ASICs bring about the possibility for many more miners and larger capacity of existing miners due to lowering entry requirements.  This can result in emphasizing large, e.g. 60,000 USD+ with BFL pricing, capital requirements to be a serious mining operation with interesting ROI.  All this further pushes difficulty while the ASIC provider has the ability, and compulsion to do so based on difficulty, to lower unit pricing by orders of magnitude.  If the ASIC provider does indeed lower unit cost severely then all of that big miner operation capital was wasted.

I agree.  ASICs are only good for mining profitability if done for the community by the community at minor profit.

 

No, the problem is that price is determined by the market.

What's the market of mining? The ratio price of Bitcoin / difficulty of mining.

What's the market of ASIC? The miners, who follow the price/difficulty of Bitcoin.

So, knowing that, what prevents the ASIC makers (like BFL) to price their product accordingly to the mining market? They'll know exactly at which point they can sell, and at which point they don't. If the ASIC price is too high, miners can't make an interesting ROI, and the difficulty stay stable or maybe goes down. If the price is low, miners makes an interesting ROI, they buy, the difficulty goes up and they lose their ROI. Same thing if the Bitcoin price varies.

FPGA prices are not determined by Bitcoin difficulty. ASIC prices for Bitcoin will vary, depending on the Bitcoin price and Bitcoin difficulty. In a market like that, either the provider make profit, either the miners make profit. The profit is the same for the two groups, so what one gain, the other lose.

Dude...how many threads do you need to start. We get it, you don't like asics. Regardless, ASICs are the future. If they weren't developed now, they would be developed eventually. Even if you managed to get a change away from SHA2, a different ASIC design would fill the same role. Embrace the change.

Let's just hope the open ASIC thing gains momentum and everyone can be happy, or at least almost everyone.

So, wait, the argument is that because ASICs are a single-use device they can't be profitable? This argument kind of falls apart when you realize that for 99% of the people buying them, FPGAs are also single-use devices. Sure, you could do other things with them, but the majority of miners don't have the knowledge, skill or any kind of application to throw their FPGAs at anything but mining.

Seeing how the Single came first followed by the Mini-rig, I would assume the small devices come first this time round as well.

Okay I was wrong. If they release the coffee cup warmers first, then those buyers will be fine. Unfortunately, their 1 TH people will be pissed if they sell enough coffee warmers.

Why?

We finally have a real world scenario and multiple threads saying the same thing I was saying. ASIC is different than any other mining technology because it is a much larger leap and there is NO secondary market or primary market beyond BTC mining.

All other mining technologies used thus far had these qualities and therefore created a reasonable market where risk could be reasonably quantified outside of BTC price.

There is NO business model that works for both miners and the hardware vendor when it comes to ASICS if you use only free market principles. EITHER THE MINERS GET BURNED OR THE VENDOR GETS BURNED.

In this case we have maybe the most inconsistent vendor in the BTC community leading the charge...what a fucking disaster. Since no one will be able to truly quantify when they can expect to get their hardware, many people will willfully hand over interest free loans to these clowns in exchange for, hopefully, being one of the first to get a device.

After the first 10 1TH units hit the market, everyone else is screwed unless BFL lowers their price ten fold. Now the early buyers are screwed.

An ASIC development co-operative was/is the only way to avoid this, but if the BFL scheme hits the market in October then there is no hope for that possibility.

Enjoy your $150 coffee warmers because using them for mining will be useless.