Number of transactions declining in last 2 months. - page 2.

barbara44

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Merit: 605

Quote from: CryptopreneurBrainboss on June 14, 2021, 11:11:05 PM

Quote from: sheenshane on June 14, 2021, 10:40:26 AM

If you will see, mostly when the price was dumped no one will cash out or trade their Bitcoin. It's a sign that they keep holding their assets and didn't get panic sell even there's a FUD that keeps spreading.

Then who are those selling that keep declining the market. If I'm not mistaken, the whale just manipulate, they don't take part in the day to day trading. They could just make one of few trades that'll cause panic in the market then the retail investors begin selling their bags to either secure profit or minimize lost in anticipation of buying cheaper as the believe the price is to decline further.

I won't be too quick to come to a conclusion on what this development is trying to say as it could mean many things. Lets not forget people equally hold there coins on exchange so their activities within the exchange can't be monitored as it doesn't get recorded in an open ledger (blockchain)

I think he meant that AFTER the fall, like after the fall price didn't went down any longer so it is only the people who are holding that is left. Which makes sense, when the volume is down it is the volatility that is down and not the price, because there are tons of people who would not sell under 30k whereas not as many people who would sell over 50k, so the drop makes sense and staying here makes sense at the same time as well.

I do not know what is going to happen in the future, I never do, but I will not make my decision based on volume for sure, it is not a good indicator, there are tons of other indicators to go with and volume is not one of them. What does it give you, people not buying/selling? I mean it does mean people are not buying but as much as that we also have people are not selling at the same place as well, if it was a high on selling then the price wouldn't be up now and sellers would drop the price to sell more and more, so it is just... stable now that's it.

dkbit98

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Activity: 2212

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Some people have taken profits from trading at all time high prices and they are back to hodling BTC and cooling down, number of transaction was showing record low in last few weeks
and good thing about that is that we can pay much lower fees and consolidate our coins more, but it all looks to me like a quiet time before a big storm.

erep

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Activity: 2436

Merit: 607

I conclude that the number of bitcoin transactions decreases every month as the number of holders increases, whether it's just buying it at the current lowest price or at the highest price then both are very optimistic that the market will recover soon, for me it's a positive thing because people can control themselves from FUD and they know the market is being manipulated by big whales.

SFR10

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Quote from: Febo on June 13, 2021, 11:32:21 AM

There was no such bad month in the last 4 years.

Perhaps I'm a bit weird since I think it's the exact opposite ^{[it led to fees going down drastically as well]}

^{- Based on all of the previous ATH moments that were followed by crashes of that extent ^{[purely based on what I've experienced and could recall]}, I expected this to happen and it did ^{[quite normal]}.}

CryptopreneurBrainboss

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Quote from: sheenshane on June 14, 2021, 10:40:26 AM

If you will see, mostly when the price was dumped no one will cash out or trade their Bitcoin. It's a sign that they keep holding their assets and didn't get panic sell even there's a FUD that keeps spreading.

Then who are those selling that keep declining the market. If I'm not mistaken, the whale just manipulate, they don't take part in the day to day trading. They could just make one of few trades that'll cause panic in the market then the retail investors begin selling their bags to either secure profit or minimize lost in anticipation of buying cheaper as the believe the price is to decline further.

I won't be too quick to come to a conclusion on what this development is trying to say as it could mean many things. Lets not forget people equally hold there coins on exchange so their activities within the exchange can't be monitored as it doesn't get recorded in an open ledger (blockchain)

Fundamentals Of

sr. member

Activity: 2380

Merit: 366

Quote from: philipma1957 on June 14, 2021, 09:45:30 AM

Quote from: Febo on June 13, 2021, 11:32:21 AM

Had anyone noticed how drastically decreased the number of Bitcoin transactions in last 2 months? In last 5 years with the exception of 2018 Bitcoin had between 9 million and 10 million transactions every month. In April and May there was around 8 million and this month seems to be even below 7 million. There was no such bad month in the last 4 years. Is this a clear sigh we are already yin bear market or reasons are more fundamental and more serious for Bitcoin than just price and speculation.

Traders were crushed when coins dropped from 64k to 31k

billions of dollars of wealth were lost.

So my guess is the degenerate traders were tapped out and thus movement has slowed.

Also smart traders are able to hodl coins that are down.

Ie purchased at 50k down to 40k if you hodl you have not lost.

So you tapped out the traders that were nuts.
only smart traders are left that took a break and are hodling.

I ladder buy and sell.

I have buys at

31031
30030
29029
28028
27027
26026
25025
24024
23023
22022
21021

and sells at

55055
56056
57057
58058
59059
60060
62062
64064
66066
68068
70070
72072
74074

and i hodl a lot off the exchange

i have not done many trades sonce we are in the middle zone

32k to 55k

You must have a very deep pocket to be able to do this and make a significant profit. I used to trade with USDT-BTC and attempted to do this also. I later on realized I shouldn't have even started it. I came out short of funds, either BTC or USDT. I found myself hanging at a certain price that left me no more step to make. Had I done this when the price of Bitcoin started rising from $20,000 to $60,000 and then falling from $64,000 to $30,000, I still would've ended up stuck in the middle.

lolxxxx

legendary

Activity: 2198

Merit: 1032

Directly proportional to Holding.

People are not giving a shit about tweets from influencers, They are trusting the instinct that crypto is the future and in long term, they will earn great profits. No matter what happens in a few weeks or months in the long term crypto is everything.

People are just holding and holding and holding. (at least the people I know)

Regards

hugeblack

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Activity: 2702

Merit: 4002

The rate of transactions is not necessarily related to the price. There are many things that have changed since 2017, for example:
- The increase in transfers outside the network: This case includes the lightning network and all the ways that lead to the closure of currencies.
- Increased transfers within centralized platforms: such as Binance, Coinbase, PayPal and others.
- Bitcoin fees are higher compared to altcoins.

all above will make people not using bitcoin main chain

sheenshane

legendary

Activity: 2534

Merit: 1233

We're all here having assumptions here but there's no accurate answer that I found above.

The reason could be;

Traders might trap when there's a sudden correction of the price and prefer to Hold their asset on exchange
At a low price, everyone prefers to hold than spending it
Know how to send bulk transaction or start using Light Network
It's summertime, and time to have a break in trading

If you will see, mostly when the price was dumped no one will cash out or trade their Bitcoin. It's a sign that they keep holding their assets and didn't get panic sell even there's a FUD that keeps spreading.

Kittygalore

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Activity: 868

Merit: 63

Probably people are not buying things with bitcoin yet and they only hodl because the prices are still going low and they might want to hold on to it for awhile not doing anything with it for now.

philipma1957

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Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: Febo on June 13, 2021, 11:32:21 AM

Had anyone noticed how drastically decreased the number of Bitcoin transactions in last 2 months? In last 5 years with the exception of 2018 Bitcoin had between 9 million and 10 million transactions every month. In April and May there was around 8 million and this month seems to be even below 7 million. There was no such bad month in the last 4 years. Is this a clear sigh we are already yin bear market or reasons are more fundamental and more serious for Bitcoin than just price and speculation.

Traders were crushed when coins dropped from 64k to 31k

billions of dollars of wealth were lost.

So my guess is the degenerate traders were tapped out and thus movement has slowed.

Also smart traders are able to hodl coins that are down.

Ie purchased at 50k down to 40k if you hodl you have not lost.

So you tapped out the traders that were nuts.
only smart traders are left that took a break and are hodling.

I ladder buy and sell.

I have buys at

31031
30030
29029
28028
27027
26026
25025
24024
23023
22022
21021

and sells at

55055
56056
57057
58058
59059
60060
62062
64064
66066
68068
70070
72072
74074

and i hodl a lot off the exchange

i have not done many trades sonce we are in the middle zone

32k to 55k

Fundamentals Of

sr. member

Activity: 2380

Merit: 366

This might mean that people are looking forward to the days in the near future when Bitcoin would once again rise past $60,000. It means people don't want to spend now because the price is still very low. They probably have much confidence that the price would still make it beyond the recorded ATH within the year. Why would they spend their Bitcoin at $39,000 when weeks from now it could once again get back at $60,000?

NeuroticFish

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Activity: 3668

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I find this normal. The bulk of transactions is related to trading bots. If everybody is waiting for something to happen (i.e. a recovery near the last ATH), the number of transactions cannot be too high.
And there's something else too: centralized exchanges and wallets learned to send in bulk. This means that you may get to maybe 5-10 times less transactions, but fatter ones.

stompix

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Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Quote from: davis196 on June 14, 2021, 06:59:01 AM

Another major factor are the increased transaction fees.
Anyway,having less transactions also means that mass Bitcoin adoption isn't going anywhere and the crypto community simply isn't growing.This is disturbing...

Actually, fees have hit rock bottom yesterday and we still had empty blocks so, no fees aren't the problem anymore, but individual usage is indeed declining.
And I'm saying individual because while the number of tx has indeed dropped to the lowest since 2018 there is another way of looking at things:

While outputs have also dropped a bit, they are still a lot over 2018, close in line with 2020, so it means that the growth is coming from people and services making multiple payments and once back in 2018 we had an average of 4k per block now we're at 6k.

Anyhow usage was already going down, maybe now that LN has gained a bit of attention with the Salvador news we might see merchants adopting it even in other parts of the world, otherwise, in one two years, probably 90% of all the tx will be in and out of exchanges.

davis196

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Quote from: Febo on June 13, 2021, 11:32:21 AM

Had anyone noticed how drastically decreased the number of Bitcoin transactions in last 2 months? In last 5 years with the exception of 2018 Bitcoin had between 9 million and 10 million transactions every month. In April and May there was around 8 million and this month seems to be even below 7 million. There was no such bad month in the last 4 years. Is this a clear sigh we are already yin bear market or reasons are more fundamental and more serious for Bitcoin than just price and speculation.

The lower number transactions means that more Bitcoins have been concentrated in the hands of less people/companies.More people and companies have decided to just HODL their Bitcoins,instead of sending them here and there.Another major factor are the increased transaction fees.
Anyway,having less transactions also means that mass Bitcoin adoption isn't going anywhere and the crypto community simply isn't growing.This is disturbing...

Wind_FURY

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Merit: 1823

Quote from: pooya87 on June 13, 2021, 09:54:39 PM

It is not drastic decrease and it is like before the new year when price was stable like today. There are a couple of factors that always contribute to the number of transactions and the main one is the price change. Price doesn't necessarily have to go down to decrease the number of transactions it has to stay stable and right now price is moderately stable so people are staying away from trading which means their bitcoins are already withdrawn from exchanges and are in their wallets not moving hence less on-chain traffic.

Another big factor is the shitcoin market pump and dumps. The past month we saw the huge altcoin dump and then their slower decline which practically ended the pump and dumps for now. Again this means that traders pulled their bitcoins out and are not going back again. Bitcoin stability and altcoin dumps means that they are also not going in and out between the two markets hence a lot less on-chain transactions.

P.S. Price being stable is NOT called bear market!

It’s a CRAB MARKET! The price is “crabbing” from side to side. It’s probably an indication that buyers and sellers have reached an equilibrium. Buyers bid low and don’t want to FOMO, then sellers bid too high and want to sell higher for a better deal. Market might also be in “pre-FOMO”. Cool

Wexnident

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How the hell did the number of transactions relate to a bear market. Decreasing transactions just simply means that less people are exiting the market, and the same could be entering. It just simply means they've either left for good, or are holding, and seeing as the price isn't really dumping, it's more likely that they're actually holding it and are just waiting for price to actually change. I mean, would you, as a trader, go in and out of a market that is currently stable? That's just a plain waste of money to pay for fees if I do say so for myself. I guess interest is completely flat since there hasn't been any changes, but no interest doesn't equate to a failing market.

adaseb

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Activity: 3808

Merit: 1723

Transactions and volumes are down in the last month or so. I think this has to do with it being Summer. Generally markets trade sideways in the Summer hence the term "Sell in May and Go away!".

Everything is down, transactions for both ETH and BTC. Trading volumes are down. Open interest is down for derivaties. The futures premiums are completely flat. The amount of search terms for crypto and twitter posts are also down.

Who knows. It might be like 2013, where it peaked in April and then bottomed in July while making a new ATH back in November.

Psynthax

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Activity: 2366

Merit: 504

Maybe the holders of bitcoin are holding so hard, as you see usually those with big capital invest in bitcoin instead of altcoins and probably because people who
make small amount of transaction choose to use other altcoins because of the fee.Remember that bitcoin in 2018 was frequently used for paying things online, now most of payment gateway also accepts other cryptocurrencies that are cheap in fee
so it could boost the number of transactions but I really doubt it's because of bearish market.

pooya87

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It is not drastic decrease and it is like before the new year when price was stable like today. There are a couple of factors that always contribute to the number of transactions and the main one is the price change. Price doesn't necessarily have to go down to decrease the number of transactions it has to stay stable and right now price is moderately stable so people are staying away from trading which means their bitcoins are already withdrawn from exchanges and are in their wallets not moving hence less on-chain traffic.

Another big factor is the shitcoin market pump and dumps. The past month we saw the huge altcoin dump and then their slower decline which practically ended the pump and dumps for now. Again this means that traders pulled their bitcoins out and are not going back again. Bitcoin stability and altcoin dumps means that they are also not going in and out between the two markets hence a lot less on-chain transactions.

P.S. Price being stable is NOT called bear market!

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