Based on the progress of address linking that we've seen so far, I have to make a few adjustments to the future distribution plan. Nothing changes for the first round (December 25) but the rules for further rounds are optimized to maximize the long-term value of your bytes.
For the 2nd round:
- for every 1 BTC of proven balance you receive 62.5 MB
- for every 1 byte, you receive 0.1 new bytes
We no longer commit to distributing exactly 20% in the second round, we'll distribute as much as is linked and calculated by the above rules. After the price of byte is established in the markets, the rules make it significantly simpler for new users to estimate how much they get by linking their Bitcoins or by buying bytes. Hopefully, this will encourage much more people to join.
Compared with the previous rules, the weight of bytes in the basket is decreased. This still encourages byteholders to hold in order to receive more bytes in the future rounds, while giving more weight to the newly linked BTC. We do need to be more attractive to new users, who are going to eventually link much much more BTC than we see in the current round, otherwise they might feel like a huge chunk of the second distribution will go to the participants of the first distribution, while new users are significantly disadvantaged. If it is not quite clear, this is the math:
Under the old rules, for the basket weight calculation, 62.5 MB were accepted as 1 BTC. 1014 bytes are distributed in the first round, the total weight of these bytes is 1,600,000 BTC. This seems huge compared with the amount of BTC the second-rounders are going to realistically link, based on current progress. Therefore, under the old rules, the vast majority of new bytes are going to be distributed to the first-rounders, which scares new users off and contradicts my plans of creating the widest possible distribution and increasing value through network effects (which are proportional to square of the number of users). To give new users better chance, the total weight of bytes distributed in the first round is reduced to 160,000 BTC under the new rules.
We will probably distribute less than 20% in the 2nd round, this means we'll have more rounds before all bytes are distributed, more opportunity to multiply your holdings in each round, more incentive to hold.
The 3rd and subsequent rounds will follow similar rules, but the relative weight of bytes vs. BTC in the 3rd and further rounds will change and will gradually increase back to 1 BTC=62.5 MB. It will be selected to maximize the value of bytes and keep the speed of distribution in sync with the growth of user base and the actual use of the network.
The date of the 2nd round is not decided yet, rough estimate is mid-February.
For the 2nd round:
- for every 1 BTC of proven balance you receive 62.5 MB
- for every 1 byte, you receive 0.1 new bytes
We no longer commit to distributing exactly 20% in the second round, we'll distribute as much as is linked and calculated by the above rules. After the price of byte is established in the markets, the rules make it significantly simpler for new users to estimate how much they get by linking their Bitcoins or by buying bytes. Hopefully, this will encourage much more people to join.
Compared with the previous rules, the weight of bytes in the basket is decreased. This still encourages byteholders to hold in order to receive more bytes in the future rounds, while giving more weight to the newly linked BTC. We do need to be more attractive to new users, who are going to eventually link much much more BTC than we see in the current round, otherwise they might feel like a huge chunk of the second distribution will go to the participants of the first distribution, while new users are significantly disadvantaged. If it is not quite clear, this is the math:
Under the old rules, for the basket weight calculation, 62.5 MB were accepted as 1 BTC. 1014 bytes are distributed in the first round, the total weight of these bytes is 1,600,000 BTC. This seems huge compared with the amount of BTC the second-rounders are going to realistically link, based on current progress. Therefore, under the old rules, the vast majority of new bytes are going to be distributed to the first-rounders, which scares new users off and contradicts my plans of creating the widest possible distribution and increasing value through network effects (which are proportional to square of the number of users). To give new users better chance, the total weight of bytes distributed in the first round is reduced to 160,000 BTC under the new rules.
We will probably distribute less than 20% in the 2nd round, this means we'll have more rounds before all bytes are distributed, more opportunity to multiply your holdings in each round, more incentive to hold.
The 3rd and subsequent rounds will follow similar rules, but the relative weight of bytes vs. BTC in the 3rd and further rounds will change and will gradually increase back to 1 BTC=62.5 MB. It will be selected to maximize the value of bytes and keep the speed of distribution in sync with the growth of user base and the actual use of the network.
The date of the 2nd round is not decided yet, rough estimate is mid-February.
Interesting changes. Indeed, it will favor more the new users, but there are a few problems. (1) First time users are more loyal I believe, they've been following this thread for long time and really interested. (2) decrease weight in bytes will cause more dump of bytes in the market, which is not good. We certainly hope people will hold more longer term.
Fair enough, but we have to strike a balance to encourage new users to join, as we won't create value by trading among ourselves. That said, remember that first time users still get about 4 GB per BTC (at the current rate) while second-rounders get 62.5 MB per BTC, and I plan to increase the weight of bytes in the final rounds, so it still makes a lot of sense to hold.
Yes agree with what you said. But maybe should publish a plan to reward the holding of the byteball. Some people, regardless what you do, will possibly dump, and they should be penalized. But it is not easy to track it (2nd time distribution will take into account of it?).
but I have managed to make it work. 
