1. So, do you think that miners will start selling BTC without profit? Or they start selling their previously earned profit at lower value?
2. Like you said, it reduces the printing of the new ones. And who is getting the new ones? Miners.
This means miners need to ask twice as much for BTC than they ask now and half as much new coins enter the market as before. They are not getting magically 2 times more powerful ASICs, that's for sure.
3. Bitcoin price has increased in anticipation of halving previous times, so you are saying that this time it won't do that anymore? How is this time so much different?
4. The whole logic of Bitcoin mining distribution is build on that price will increase with every halving for next 100 years,
5. so eventually the price would be high enough that miners can live off the transactions fees.
1. Retail miners will not mining BTC in loss for a long time and will shut down their farms. Big farms may do it some time and don't sell BTC in loss, but after all they become bankrupt. You can google these stories.
2. The price is formed not only by miners. The share of new generated coins is below 0.9%. This is a consensus between all sellers and buyers. If miners do not sell at the market price, they will not receive fiat and will not be able to pay bills. They will have to close the farms, mining difficulty will decreasing until reaches the break-even point.
3.
- Correlation does not imply causation
- Historical events are a reflection of the past and not a forecast of the future
- Past performance is no guarantee of future results
- for any conclusions you need a sample of 1000 halvings at least. You make conclusions with sample of 1 halving.
I ddn't say it won't or it will. That's you speak as if you came to us from the future. I am only pointing out flaws in your story. And actually this time is different. Capitalization has increased significantly. Bandwidth has reached the limit (I mean that now it is not just a story of haters).
4. The whole logic of Bitcoin mining distribution is not the law. It can work just as well as not work.
5. Do you mean if BTC will cost $100mm now, it will be fine to pay $1k fees?
. The whole logic of Bitcoin mining was fair distribution of coins and network protection. I doubt that the idea was to subsidize miners at the expense of buyers. You can find Satoshi's posts on this forum and read everything yourself. The fact is that 1mb block size was a temporary solution to a problem called spam. Initially there were no block size limit. It is logical to assume that under such conditions miners would live at the expense of volume (volume of transactions) and not at the expense of high fees or subsidies. But again, now it become political. So read yourself, in any case it is interesting to find out how it all began.
1. Who is going to mine Bitcoin then? So, you predict that instead of price at least doubling, hashrate will half instead? When has that happened before?
3. There has been more than one halving before and this time it is not different, just like it wasn't different last time. That whole "this time it's different" logic is also why people get burned with bull-runs because they think that this time it won't crash, it will crash again and again.
Historical data can't predict the future for stock, but you can't also ignore it. Because of the distribution, Bitcoin cycles are not so much like stocks.
Bandwidth hit the limit during the bull-run and fees were high, it's not a problem right now. Lightning will make it less an issue during next bull-run.
5. Why $1k fees now? The reward is just halving, not divided by 10. It has 100 years to go in order to replace the rewards with transaction fees. During that time, 1mb block size can be increased as well. Also, because of SegWit, more improvements on how many transactions can be fit into same size block will be done, so both of these will mean that there will be unpredictable amount of transactions on mainnet in 100 years.
I wasn't into Bitcoin in the beginning. To be honest, I even thought that XRP made more sense, but having invested half of my time as developer in this space during last 1.5 years, I have found that somebody who likes altcoin like Obyte, which has found a different solution to problems that Bitcoin has, hating whatever is TOP3 is kind of stupid. More better TOP3 does, the more chances Obyte also has.
I don't mind anymore (but I am glad it has stopped) that over 50% of bytes were airdropped to BTC holders because without BTC, there wouldn't probably be Obyte.