Topic: Office halving argument (Read 176 times)

In the end, speculation is based on many assumptions, such as that halving will have a positive impact on the price. I think all, or almost all of us on the forum assume that the demand for Bitcoin will continue to grow over the years. I hope in fact that it is true what is said that today we are in terms of Bitcoin usage as in internet usage in the year 2000 or so. So if demand grows and supply shrinks with halvings the price can only go up.

I do believe, as I commented in a thread, that the returns as the cycles progress will tend to decrease in percentage terms, to be more modest. So, for the next cycle I think pretty sure we will pass $100k but I doubt more that we will pass $200k. I would like to see it, but we'll have to see.

Price isnt one thing, it will vary vastly by the currency its exchanged for, most commonly we consider Dollar strength.   Also as said its important growth of users and the way they use BTC continues as well and we cant be sure only a general trend.
  I was watching a good projection earlier involving the Dollar and its excessive monetary supply with this inertia economically relative to the recent rate rises, the projection was for 2024 to allow a return to the previous interest rate 'environment' rather this current attempt to head off inflationary factors.  
    I dont  really expect any grand rise in BTC while Dollar appears strong as it has been, say above 100 DXY.   We are consolidating, probably this entire year now maybe longer just to frustrate people but so long as growth is there BTC is good and price is definitely not everything.

US treasury debt reissued at a higher rate will consume the entire fiscal budget of the worlds largest government but thats a big subject, they cant raise rates forever so far as I know so its not all politics and fine words; theres no choices in that end game it just wont add up and I think Satoshi foresaw that situ tbh.

Technically satoshi never did post on this forum. He posted on the original forum before bitcointalk was created and I don’t think satoshi had anything to do with its formation. There are members still active on this forum that were responsible for its creation and continued existence.

I do think your take and price assumptions will likely be more accurate than your office mates want to believe.

It's a lie? How can someone possibly lie about the contents that Satoshi had posted. There is nothing controversial about it, Satoshi's posts are pieces of history that validates Satoshi's existence here and the contribution Satoshi made to the forum before he disappeared. There have also been plenty of members who witnessed the presence in early years, proving that it was not fabricated. There are also many archives, proving the posts were not edited or added at later dates.

You should point your friends to some of Satoshi's posts and see what they say about it.

More details
Bitcoin Block Reward Halving Countdown
Controlled supply
Equivalent Network Time

The next halving is one year ahead and in the meantime, you can watch the Halving progress chart and compare bull markets.

I am not sure what is 'our' calculation and how it is made. You did not explain how you calculate the price of next bull run.

From $150k to $350k is very wide range and it is not like a good calculation but only a blinded guess.

This is just their calculation where it doesn't have any strong proof that it might came. We also need to know that there's so many things need to consider since not every halving season bring good effect since maybe for the past it really is because the news bring hype to the people.

But the same as other hype news used it subside so maybe we should look at the realistic figure and don't over extend our expectation to avoid financial lose in believing on something hard to reach.

I agree 100%. Why would people who are not really interested in economics, don't understand anything about inflation, quantitative easing etc. want to know more about bitcoin? Besides it's not that easy to find your way around the forum, you really have to be interested in bitcoin first and understand the issues. Orange pilling your friends by comparing, for example, an investment in euros or dollars with the evolution of the bitcoin price is perhaps the easiest thing to do at first.
 
But in the middle of the bearmarket, all the people you talk to about Bitcoin have this phrase "ah yes the bitcoin, it has dropped a lot I think, right? " Do the test, you'll see.

People who are not looking for lovers online may not know there's an app called Tinder , it is hard to know about something when you are not interested in it. The forum is popular for people who know well about BTC, even if they are not on the forum, they must have seen it sometime when they were researching on something about BTC, or their BTC friends would introduce them to the forum.
Halving happens after every 210,000 mined blocks.
We should warn you about speculation, don't invest what you cannot afford to lose because you believe BTC will be between $150k-350k after the halving, do not also give investment advice to people, or tell them to invest because of your calculation. After every halving BTC is expected to pump in price, but you cannot predict how it will perform this time around, or if it will pump immediately or after several months, so don't invest all you have into it, start buying with the dca method from now to leverage your risk.

The demand can be the same after the halving but the number of BTC per block decreases. With fewer BTC on the market most likely the demand will also be growing since more people are also going to buy BTC anticipating the profit this have been happening every 4 years as cycle so its not surprising anymore.

So which one subject were you arguing about; Satoshi not originally posting in bitcointalk or the halving price?

Those who don't believe in your words give them the link of this site. Once they visit it themselves they will believe in your words after reading some posts. This site isn't unpopular, it's quite popular but those who are well aware of Bitcoin not for those who  doesn't know about Bitcoin that much. Whatever they think that's their own problem, you have done a great job by joining this forum. Welcome to the forum!

I agree with you that Satoshi is truly a genius and he made Bitcoin that shows his intellect. But, like others he also might have learnt from his past mistakes. The more we try the better we become. The halving happen when 210,000 blocks are mined and that takes almost 4 years time. And the rewards will cut into half with every halving. That, will increase the price of Bitcoin.

Halvings can only account for bitcoin's supply, not necessarily the demand. Theoretically, even with literally zero remaining mining rewards, the price still wouldn't go that high if there wasn't a good amount of demand. So can you tell us how you made that calculation?

I can't hear words again within my friends and colleagues in the office when I discussed that I finally joined a bitcoin forum created by Satoshi the bitcoin founder. They were like, it's a lie, he has no forum, this generated arguments and most of them did not believe me, but I don't care. This gets me wondering how unpopular this site is and how can we possibly make it more known to the masses that can learn from it.

That apart, I am not new to the halving discussion and I again threw it on board and told them they should not joke with it. Not knowing that better people with such an idea are present and are fully ready to invest prior to the next one without telling others.

So I decided to listen as many shared their ideas. Theirs agree with what I just researched overnight on the coming opportunities. Satoshi is just a genius and has cleverly planned things that many will have a lifetime benefits from.

The summary from my reading and our educative discussion is that the final halving will happen in 2140 when the 21 million pegged is reached. The information gathered shows that halving does not have a specific day and month but happens in a 4-year period.

The first one was on November 28, 2012, with block reward of 25 bitcoins
The second is on July 9, 2016 with block reward of 12.5 bitcoins
The last one was on May 11, 2020 with block reward of 6.25 bitcoins
The next one will be between April and May, 2024 with block reward of 3.125 bitcoins

By our calculation and agreement, bitcoin can sleep between $150k-350K by January 2025. Don't dull yourself, gather the money you can gather. Don't say I did not warn you for this lifetime investment.

-Guru says so-