Overproduction is not good, If something renewable perhaps but oil is not. Low prices should lead to overproduction.
Low prices will not lead to over-production.
If the prices are low, then the profit margins will be reduced. So for the companies, there is less incentive to ramp up their production. Therefore the exact opposite is going to happen. In case of prices staying low, the production will decline in the long-term. (Already the Bakken shale oil production in North Dakota is showing signs of decrease).
OK,
But If I remember correctly the prices were down due to OPEC countries increased the production. Then if supply increases and the demand stays the same then prices fall as on this case however with the low prices I guess that some countries try to get oil as much as they can and this should lead to an increase in demand and therefore in the production of those who are selling cheap. I'll make a search on the production since the fall to see that meeting.
After do a little search I found the next:
-OPEC controls about 43% of world oil production and 81% of stocks domain oil. Its oil exports stood at about 51%.
-While production has surged in recent years supply has increased more than demand recently however the cause by which has fallen more than 70 percent since June 2014.
-The increase come from Saudi Arabia,Iraq,Iran mainly.
So 3 are members of the OPEC, but even so, maybe more than just new oil supplies from the Middle East influencing the market. Example:
World field production of crude oil in September was up 1.5 million barrels x day over the previous year. More than all of that came from a increase in the U.S. Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. If it had not been for the increased oil production from these three countries, world oil production would actually have been down over the last year.
Now come the thing interesting Im agree with you that: If the prices are low, then the profit margins will be reduced. So for the companies, there is less incentive to ramp up their production. Therefore the exact opposite is going to happen. In case of prices staying low, the production will decline in the long-term. (Already the Bakken shale oil production in North Dakota is showing signs of decrease).
Taking this in consideration I could are agree with you that the production will decline in the long-term
especially in the countries that have lost due to the high cost of extraction, But no evidence that countries overproducers decreases its production as they do not decide bringing about the fall in prices as has been the case until now since June 2014. Now as you say North Dakota is showing signs of decrease we can say that US is showing a decrease but anyway, Why increased production September on? this was done together with Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. If they had done world oil production would actually have been down almost over the last year which is contradictory.
Now my statement: Low prices should lead to overproduction. Agree, is not true at all as you pointed clearly. However for instance one can not completely rule out that such, Suppose for example a company has a debt and has payments to make then necessarily has to sell it product at a low price but now it needed to produce more to get the same amount of revenue which means an overproduction, despite the decrease in production is offset one another overproduction.
Finally please let me show a graphic where Supply has increased more than demand recently:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/business/energy-environment/oil-price-supply-demand-imblance.html