A better metric to predict a price increase would be trading volume, with some indicators and tools. Other than that, analyzing the 'fundamental' status is also a good idea. Such as how many merchants and users are using Bitcoin, what's the improvement of the network on the future, is there any competitor, etc.
I don't know why people are always speculating and assuming that the price will increase during halving, although this is a major event in crypto world, still doesn't guarantee that the price will increase, still up to the people or to the demand if they will keep buying or not, what's good for now is that we do have positive start of the year.