Topic: Old coins on the move (Read 1881 times)

This seems that big whales are now trying to either get out with their coins or are preparing to start some real price action on the go once they decide to either f*ck the markets or make it spike...

I think the people that forgot about their coins were waken up once the price reached $1000 and the media was heavily reporting about it. Nowadays every one knows what they have stored away for years. It's not a surprise anymore.

I think some people forget the old coins. But if I see the old coins are also growing.

So we should not underestimate the old coins.

Interesting analysis. Did you apply any filters to the age of BDD? There are several available:

Bitcoin Days Destroyed (Filtered By Min Age 1 Week) - Filtered by minimum input age of 1 week.
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-week
Bitcoin Days Destroyed (Filtered By Min Age 1 Month) - Filtered by minimum input age of 1 month.
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-month
Bitcoin Days Destroyed (Filtered By Min Age 1 Year) - Filtered by minimum input age of 1 year.
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year

I'd be most interested in minimum age of 1 year. It makes the most recent movements seem more pronounced.

This is exactly why Monero and Aeon will be the future of cryptocurrency, and not Bitcoin. 
 
Everyone deserves financial privacy. 

pfffft...

'they' start the buying from Joe Public down the button, then 'they' sell to Joe Public up the top...then they sell some more, then some more, and then even more...eventually, Joe Public panics, and sells 'them' all his BTC, which 'they' then start to sell back up top.

Whole market is a fucking racket and 'they' are only it to make a fast buck, just like all the rest of us are.....difference is, 'they' have all the cards up their sleeves, and we are just fumbling around 2n guessing what the fuck 'they' are going to do next.

As for $1K target...yep....could see it happen, as very top of parabolic move. If I am holding BTC when it hits $1K, I will be selling hand over fist.

Yeah we are having some consolidation right now. I agree with OP someone is selling a lot of coins. However someone is also buying that's why we are not seeing a big crash.

SOMEONE IS BUYING PEOPLE. THAT'S WHY WE ARE NOT SEEING A BIG CRASH.

After this whale has finished their selling and we are out of the consolidation we are gonna see a big move up to $1k I predict

I understand your perspective, but since I'm putting significant money on the line (>>6 BTC) I need to have solid evidence, not just eyeballing charts.

The evidence over the past year is mixed:  a slight downward bias, probably not tradeable given spreads and exchange fees.

If it's enough for you, well, good- that's what makes a market.  I prefer to wait for the fat pitch.

The chart that OP posted, is a chart showing great spikes that occured in the last month, where BTC that had spent a lot of time in stasis, started being sent between wallets. Within a day or two, BTC exchanges started crashing.

Then show the evidence for a statistically significant relationship.

I provided data and evidence, and the best you can muster is "Whatever".

dumping now doesn't make much sense if the coins have been stored for that long, why not waiting a bit more. The sentiment has changed to positive, thus, soon price should go higher. As written above, probably cold storage movements.

Whatever.

I looked at the spikes on that chart, looked at when they occured, and looked at what happened to Bitcoin shortly thereafter and I seen a very distinct relationship.

The fact is that a spike in BDD does not correlate strongly with a subsequent decline in price.

Here are the instances where BDD > 20MM over the past year:


Date           BDD           Price           Price 7d+   % change
21-Feb-15   27080982   245.66   252.98   3.0%
11-Mar-15   21316459   293.29   265.85   -9.4%
23-Apr-15   52616145   235.48   235.13   -0.1%
09-Aug-15   21986569   265.42   257.47   -3.0%
24-Aug-15   24138383   213.24   230.94   8.3%
26-Aug-15   23636756   228.84   230.68   0.8%
07-Nov-15   22926715   387.38   331.90    -14.3%
08-Jan-16   47974258   447.04   391.62   -12.4%
23-Jan-16   47285851   388.50      
                    average % change      -3.4%
                               % down   63%


This is even including the most recent instance, which may be an outlier.


Also, here are the instances where BDD <350K:

Date           BDD           Price           Price 7d+   % change
04-Feb-15   303016   222.56   221.99   -0.3%
08-Feb-15   174903   223.50   243.99   9.2%
09-Mar-15   312469   287.48   290.88   1.2%
14-Mar-15   312975   284.21   257.83   -9.3%
26-Mar-15   204256   251.98   252.44   0.2%
29-Mar-15   337273   244.05   257.03   5.3%
19-Apr-15   224641   225.72   218.42   -3.2%
10-May-15   308217   239.35   235.78   -1.5%
12-Sep-15   321233   235.13   230.71   -1.9%
13-Sep-15   341842   229.86   230.20       0.1%
27-Sep-15   314624   232.85   239.47   2.8%
            
                    average % change      -0.9%
                               % down   50%

So maybe we should be cautious when BDD is small relative to average.  The average price change during the subsequent 7 days is -0.9%.


 

besides the laught each time, you see that i was again right, the price is recovering in a shy way, like we have seen this many time

why still anyone think that 350 will be the new high and we find ourselves suddenly, below it

there is no reason for a dump now, really no reason when you think about the fact that the last price was achieved very slowly, not like the 1200 run up, people should really stop comparing with the past

if the owners of these coins would really dump these coins, then the price would easily tank to $200 and probably much lower than that. i think they are just moving their coins for security reasons.

So that's why we're back at sub-$400 now eh? 

Well if that's the case then it'll probably recover by this week or the next.

The price spiked to 500, then later to 465, then recently 420. The highs have been getting lower since November and big holders who have patiently waited for it to go above 500 again might have lost their patience. They might have decided this is the best price they will get in the short term.

I think they want to make their coin in cold wallet more secure after seeing cryptsy cold wallet getting hacked. 
Dump at this point only cause a big loss for them and if they sell now definately they should be some noobs.

You would have to be pretty rich to buy a lot of coins at once. These guys were probably early investors and want to keep their coins safe.

If this is true, they could dump coins in the exchange to create a market crash along with added Sell orders. Once the market stabilized itself again with the new low price, they'll start buying btcs again. So dumping coins is not far off plus it will definitely benefit anyone who knows what'll going to happen.