no estimate can ever be perfect, unless you have crystall ball, but it helps to understand how these sites make their prediction.
AFAIK, bitcoinwisdom extrapolates the growth over the past 1000 or so blocks, and thus implicitly assumes the past growth rate will continue, whereas blockexplorer tends to look only at the current network speed, and assumes no (further) growth.
In reality, the network tends to grow, thus bitcoinwisdom tends to be closer to the truth, but that growth is also beginning to slow down, so BW overestimates the next difficulty to some extend. Blockexplorer otoh, ignoring the historic reality of ever increasing network speed, tends to underestimate it, especially in the beginning of a difficulty period.
Topic: OMG difficulty to hit 40,000,000,000 at current rate of increase - page 2. (Read 3915 times)
September 20, 2014, 05:53:41 PM
September 20, 2014, 05:47:58 PM
In 5 days, the estimated difficulty increase has already gone from ~29,829,000,000 to ~35,259,000,000. At the current increasing rate of network hash power, in 5 more days, it's likely to hit 40,000,000,000.
There are two popular difficulty estimators on line, and they both suck. One always underestimates, and one always overestimates. As the next adjustment gets closer, they converge. Someone needs to write a better one, and back-test it against the historical data. Simple solution... just average the two yourself. And voila, there's your perfect estimate!
September 20, 2014, 05:25:02 PM
In 5 days, the estimated difficulty increase has already gone from ~29,829,000,000 to ~35,259,000,000. At the current increasing rate of network hash power, in 5 more days, it's likely to hit 40,000,000,000.
Ahm, no. The current network speed increase has to continue in order for us to hit the estimated ~35B. 40B just isnt going to happen this round, even if the growth accelerates dramatically.
September 20, 2014, 04:51:23 PM
In 5 days, the estimated difficulty increase has already gone from ~29,829,000,000 to ~35,259,000,000. At the current increasing rate of network hash power, in 5 more days, it's likely to hit 40,000,000,000.
There are two popular difficulty estimators on line, and they both suck. One always underestimates, and one always overestimates. As the next adjustment gets closer, they converge. Someone needs to write a better one, and back-test it against the historical data. from now until jan 1 around 100 days should prove very interesting with big swings in price and diff. the last 100 days we were pretty stable about 10% a diff jump and price was around 420 to 640 usd a coin.
I see bigger swings in price. but wtf do i know?
September 20, 2014, 01:16:50 PM
In 5 days, the estimated difficulty increase has already gone from ~29,829,000,000 to ~35,259,000,000. At the current increasing rate of network hash power, in 5 more days, it's likely to hit 40,000,000,000.
There are two popular difficulty estimators on line, and they both suck. One always underestimates, and one always overestimates. As the next adjustment gets closer, they converge. Someone needs to write a better one, and back-test it against the historical data. September 20, 2014, 11:47:07 AM
If you can't mine and hold, you need to get out.
If you want to hold and it's cheaper to buy than to mine, then the rational thing to do is to buy. If mining is cheaper, then mining and selling off the proceeds is the rational thing to do. The two processes are independent. You can always buy however much you intend to hold with the proceeds of mining.
September 20, 2014, 10:58:38 AM
Making money is a good incentive for people to stay in the game.
But to throw money away only to justify that you are helping the crypto currency movement is absurd.
Why bother mining if you know that every day your machine is on, you are losing money.
Example: Your machine makes 1 BTC every week on average. After considering electricity and hardware costs (calculated in BTC), you are netting 0.8 BTC
If you buy some BTC through an exchange, you have not lost anything unless the exchange rate goes down. This is a far better option for someone who has faith in the future of BTC and want to hold the BTC they mine/buy.
Example: You buy 1 BTC every week. You still have that 1 BTC without spending money on electricity or hardware.
But to throw money away only to justify that you are helping the crypto currency movement is absurd.
Why bother mining if you know that every day your machine is on, you are losing money.
Example: Your machine makes 1 BTC every week on average. After considering electricity and hardware costs (calculated in BTC), you are netting 0.8 BTC
If you buy some BTC through an exchange, you have not lost anything unless the exchange rate goes down. This is a far better option for someone who has faith in the future of BTC and want to hold the BTC they mine/buy.
Example: You buy 1 BTC every week. You still have that 1 BTC without spending money on electricity or hardware.
September 20, 2014, 03:47:35 AM
If you have faith in bitcoin, you will hold for the future.
No, if you had faith in bitcoin, you would spend them like their intended use. Then replenish what you spent. If not a single person spent them, there would be zero growth.
September 20, 2014, 03:41:32 AM
i'm dying with new 150GH/s that i bought last week, damn shit 
Is not that hash rate too small?
September 20, 2014, 02:54:25 AM
When it started out, everyone with a GPU could mine, now it's only a few hobby miners, with nearly zero % change of finding and mining a block.
Yea, He had the vision, that CPU/GPU power would increase, BUT I cannot see, that he wanted a decentralized P2P network that was inaccessible to the general solo miners out there.
If you don't have a shitload of money, you are basically out of BTC mining.
Yea, He had the vision, that CPU/GPU power would increase, BUT I cannot see, that he wanted a decentralized P2P network that was inaccessible to the general solo miners out there.
If you don't have a shitload of money, you are basically out of BTC mining.
Perhaps a CPU only or X11 coin will be the future, but for now it is bitcoin.
Keep in mind that back when the early guys were mining with CPUs/GPUs, they would get 25btc every few days/weeks/months but people forget that it wasnt worth anything. Satoshi wasn't living in vegas living the high life. Those guys mined for a hobby and had the foresight to hold for the future.
Back Then
28btc X $0.55 = $15.40
Now
.0385193btc X $400 = $15.40
If you are in it to make a profit right now, don't bother. If you have faith in bitcoin, you will hold for the future. One day you will look back to today and think "what the hell was a whining about!!!! If only i had known bitcoin would be worth $5000 each i would have invested more!"
Notice how people whine on these forums? "If only i had discovered bitcoin in 2011 i would be rich!" They forget that in 2011 it was not be profitable to mine bitcoin. (fiat speaking) This is where we are right now.
September 20, 2014, 02:36:12 AM
I mined with a few GPU's back in 2011, stopped because I got busy and moved on to other things. Started again with scrypt GPU's at the end of last year. Stopped again after scrypt ASICs hit the scene. Now recently just bought 2x S1 antminers just to tinker, no profit in mind of course. By now I think it's impossible to ROI with these old hardware, assuming free electricity.
September 20, 2014, 02:11:17 AM
I dont mine, but it seems only logical that as the difficulty keeps going up, miners will not want to sell their BTC or LTC at a loss...
September 20, 2014, 02:10:44 AM
i'm dying with new 150GH/s that i bought last week, damn shit
September 20, 2014, 02:01:54 AM
I sometimes wonder, if this was the will of Satoshi, to only have a few big companies, rule the mining scene.
When it started out, everyone with a GPU could mine, now it's only a few hobby miners, with nearly zero % change of finding and mining a block.
Yea, He had the vision, that CPU/GPU power would increase, BUT I cannot see, that he wanted a decentralized P2P network that was inaccessible to the general solo miners out there.
If you don't have a shitload of money, you are basically out of BTC mining.
When it started out, everyone with a GPU could mine, now it's only a few hobby miners, with nearly zero % change of finding and mining a block.
Yea, He had the vision, that CPU/GPU power would increase, BUT I cannot see, that he wanted a decentralized P2P network that was inaccessible to the general solo miners out there.
If you don't have a shitload of money, you are basically out of BTC mining.
September 20, 2014, 01:23:09 AM
In 5 days, the estimated difficulty increase has already gone from ~29,829,000,000 to ~35,259,000,000. At the current increasing rate of network hash power, in 5 more days, it's likely to hit 40,000,000,000.
This is really pushing the little guys out of business. Even with the most powerful and efficient miners, there is virtually no way to make a profit unless electricity is free and mining hardware is free. You'd expect with such extreme network hash power that BTC value should have skyrocketed to $1000 USD or more. But instead, it's remained somewhat steady around $500. And now, it's dropping closer to $400. How can this be profitable for anyone, even the huge mega farms?
This is really pushing the little guys out of business. Even with the most powerful and efficient miners, there is virtually no way to make a profit unless electricity is free and mining hardware is free. You'd expect with such extreme network hash power that BTC value should have skyrocketed to $1000 USD or more. But instead, it's remained somewhat steady around $500. And now, it's dropping closer to $400. How can this be profitable for anyone, even the huge mega farms?
It reached somewhere $390 a few hours ago.
substitute OMG for OMFG!
I think the only thing left to say is: Game over. Game over dude!
The increasing hashrate means that there is confidence from the people mining (be it the big or little guys).
The hashrate increase does not = price increase. That way of thinking is wrong. Anyhow the price seems $18 up for now.
September 20, 2014, 01:15:49 AM
The mining situation is excruciatingly tight right now, the margins are gone for everyone except the hardware manufacturers who are receiving chips from the foundry and assembling the ASICs themselves.
Litecoin as well which just hit 1 Petahash - an unthinkable amount 1 year ago. Its pretty simple - if you arent the one ordering the wafers, you arent in the mining business, you are hobby mining.
Price isnt related to anything else other than adoption, if the adoption rate is mostly flat the price mostly stays in a range slightly above the cost of mining it. If people arent increasingly using BTC then the price goes flat/down, and miners leave the game as they get squeezed out with razor thin margins, which is what we are seeing now - all the small players and weak hands being forced out of Bitcoin.
The more people who use BTC and LTC, the more useful and therefore more valuable they become. A lot of people who were just in it to make some quick cash mining got seriously burned, and in my view having this group out of Bitcoin is for the best, the sooner the better. The miners who really care about crypto arent in it for purely financial motives and they wont be going anywhere, but I would imagine there is a lot of liquidation and consolidation among mining firms going on currently - maybe even with our friends at Eclipse? ;-)
Litecoin as well which just hit 1 Petahash - an unthinkable amount 1 year ago. Its pretty simple - if you arent the one ordering the wafers, you arent in the mining business, you are hobby mining.
Price isnt related to anything else other than adoption, if the adoption rate is mostly flat the price mostly stays in a range slightly above the cost of mining it. If people arent increasingly using BTC then the price goes flat/down, and miners leave the game as they get squeezed out with razor thin margins, which is what we are seeing now - all the small players and weak hands being forced out of Bitcoin.
The more people who use BTC and LTC, the more useful and therefore more valuable they become. A lot of people who were just in it to make some quick cash mining got seriously burned, and in my view having this group out of Bitcoin is for the best, the sooner the better. The miners who really care about crypto arent in it for purely financial motives and they wont be going anywhere, but I would imagine there is a lot of liquidation and consolidation among mining firms going on currently - maybe even with our friends at Eclipse? ;-)
September 20, 2014, 01:04:09 AM
In 5 days, the estimated difficulty increase has already gone from ~29,829,000,000 to ~35,259,000,000. At the current increasing rate of network hash power, in 5 more days, it's likely to hit 40,000,000,000.
This is really pushing the little guys out of business. Even with the most powerful and efficient miners, there is virtually no way to make a profit unless electricity is free and mining hardware is free. You'd expect with such extreme network hash power that BTC value should have skyrocketed to $1000 USD or more. But instead, it's remained somewhat steady around $500. And now, it's dropping closer to $400. How can this be profitable for anyone, even the huge mega farms?
This is really pushing the little guys out of business. Even with the most powerful and efficient miners, there is virtually no way to make a profit unless electricity is free and mining hardware is free. You'd expect with such extreme network hash power that BTC value should have skyrocketed to $1000 USD or more. But instead, it's remained somewhat steady around $500. And now, it's dropping closer to $400. How can this be profitable for anyone, even the huge mega farms?
It reached somewhere $390 a few hours ago.
substitute OMG for OMFG!
I think the only thing left to say is: Game over. Game over dude!
legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1011
Reverse engineer from time to time
September 20, 2014, 01:02:27 AM
In 5 days, the estimated difficulty increase has already gone from ~29,829,000,000 to ~35,259,000,000. At the current increasing rate of network hash power, in 5 more days, it's likely to hit 40,000,000,000.
This is really pushing the little guys out of business. Even with the most powerful and efficient miners, there is virtually no way to make a profit unless electricity is free and mining hardware is free. You'd expect with such extreme network hash power that BTC value should have skyrocketed to $1000 USD or more. But instead, it's remained somewhat steady around $500. And now, it's dropping closer to $400. How can this be profitable for anyone, even the huge mega farms?
This is really pushing the little guys out of business. Even with the most powerful and efficient miners, there is virtually no way to make a profit unless electricity is free and mining hardware is free. You'd expect with such extreme network hash power that BTC value should have skyrocketed to $1000 USD or more. But instead, it's remained somewhat steady around $500. And now, it's dropping closer to $400. How can this be profitable for anyone, even the huge mega farms?
It reached somewhere $390 a few hours ago.
substitute OMG for OMFG!
September 20, 2014, 12:59:24 AM
In 5 days, the estimated difficulty increase has already gone from ~29,829,000,000 to ~35,259,000,000. At the current increasing rate of network hash power, in 5 more days, it's likely to hit 40,000,000,000.
This is really pushing the little guys out of business. Even with the most powerful and efficient miners, there is virtually no way to make a profit unless electricity is free and mining hardware is free. You'd expect with such extreme network hash power that BTC value should have skyrocketed to $1000 USD or more. But instead, it's remained somewhat steady around $500. And now, it's dropping closer to $400. How can this be profitable for anyone, even the huge mega farms?
This is really pushing the little guys out of business. Even with the most powerful and efficient miners, there is virtually no way to make a profit unless electricity is free and mining hardware is free. You'd expect with such extreme network hash power that BTC value should have skyrocketed to $1000 USD or more. But instead, it's remained somewhat steady around $500. And now, it's dropping closer to $400. How can this be profitable for anyone, even the huge mega farms?
It reached somewhere $390 a few hours ago.
substitute OMG for OMFG!
September 20, 2014, 12:55:02 AM
In 5 days, the estimated difficulty increase has already gone from ~29,829,000,000 to ~35,259,000,000. At the current increasing rate of network hash power, in 5 more days, it's likely to hit 40,000,000,000.
This is really pushing the little guys out of business. Even with the most powerful and efficient miners, there is virtually no way to make a profit unless electricity is free and mining hardware is free. You'd expect with such extreme network hash power that BTC value should have skyrocketed to $1000 USD or more. But instead, it's remained somewhat steady around $500. And now, it's dropping closer to $400. How can this be profitable for anyone, even the huge mega farms?
This is really pushing the little guys out of business. Even with the most powerful and efficient miners, there is virtually no way to make a profit unless electricity is free and mining hardware is free. You'd expect with such extreme network hash power that BTC value should have skyrocketed to $1000 USD or more. But instead, it's remained somewhat steady around $500. And now, it's dropping closer to $400. How can this be profitable for anyone, even the huge mega farms?
It reached somewhere $390 a few hours ago.
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