The first approach, which can be called historical (we can also call it retrospective), is based on the past data as it uses prior history to draw conclusions about future price action. If we use it, we should expect a powerful price action after a long period of stable or stagnant prices simply because it has always been so in the past. In this way, it can be said that we are running on a countdown timer now, i.e. with each passing day we are moving closer to the day when the market will rise and shine (again)
The second approach deliberately discards the past data (like past performance is not indicative of future prices), and on this ground it can be called progressive (or prospective). If we employ it, we may come to a completely different conclusion. Basically, the longer the price stays in its tight range, the higher are the chances that it will continue to stay in that range in the future. Fundamentally, it may mean more adoption and thus less speculative value, which would make this approach quite viable while its conclusions perfectly valid and legit
So which camp do you belong to? If you feel like you don't belong here at all, feel free to post your minority opinion too