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Topic: On short-term traders - page 2. (Read 885 times)

legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
June 13, 2019, 12:03:14 PM
#57
If you want to make money at horseracing, own the track.

If you want to make money at blackjack/roulette/poker/slots/etc, own the casino.

If you want to make money daytrading, own the brokerage/exchange.

Otherwise you're just a rube.

You can't really compare slots to poker. One is gambling and one is a game of skill based in probabilities, hence why professional poker players are an actual thing. The same applies to trading. Good traders are just finding EV+ situations, betting based on probabilities, and managing their capital risk same as professional poker players. The thing is, most people suck at trading.
legendary
Activity: 4200
Merit: 4887
You're never too old to think young.
June 13, 2019, 11:05:54 AM
#56
If you want to make money at horseracing, own the track.

If you want to make money at blackjack/roulette/poker/slots/etc, own the casino.

If you want to make money daytrading, own the brokerage/exchange.

Otherwise you're just a rube.
legendary
Activity: 3752
Merit: 1415
June 13, 2019, 08:22:47 AM
#55
As have I addressed it elsewhere but blow this off as well.  Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
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June 13, 2019, 08:05:48 AM
#54
Well to simply put, the house always wins, and that is in relation to the notion that short-term traders are essentially gamblers[i/]

In trading there is no house. The house edge is basically the commission that your exchange charges and also the spread which you pay if you remove liquidity from the market makers

Another interesting question worth discussing here

While technically there is no house edge in the way the odds are skewed in favor of the house in gambling, there is something which could be loosely called an effective house edge in trading. These are the traders which either don't trade or trade always profitably. A most conspicuous example is that of exchanges themselves which are taking advantage of their control over the trades and earning easy money here and there whenever an opportunity presents itself. So if we assume that trading, and more specifically trading cryptocurrencies, is a zero-sum game (which is a good assumption anyway), the presence of those milking the market is what makes this "house" edge

However you are not trading against the exchange you are trading against other traders. And they take your short when you go long and vice versa

It is too tempting for an exchange not to trade against traders. Even regular and heavily regulated exchanges cannot resist the urge

Lol your funny man really.  Yes people can continually lose money trading it's called an addiction, they make money elsewhere and lose it trading.  To say that's not possible actual speaks a lot about your lack of true understanding

I have already addressed this issue somewhere in the thread (it is not worth the effort)
legendary
Activity: 3752
Merit: 1415
June 13, 2019, 07:38:58 AM
#53
I'm pretty sure I trust cambridge's definition instead of one of mine i just came up with.  Imagine if we all just made up our own definitions for every word

But this is exactly how it happens

There is no kind of absolute definition "sourced" from somewhere unto us which we should accept without any further question. And ultimately, yes, we have our own understanding of what every word means or describes. Anyway, appeal to authority (which is what you are doing here) speaks a lot about your own lack of true understanding rather than me failing to make a compelling argument. Put differently, you can't change an opinion or point of view where there is none to begin with

you're just pointing out that most day traders lose money. sure a small proportion of them are successful. but the same is true for gamblers

They can't consistently lose money. And there is no endless influx of new traders which could potentially give some credibility to your claim. These two factors can mean only one thing, that short-term traders cannot be losing money en masse

your comparing "short term traders" to "bagholders", not "short term traders" to "long term traders".

That's how bag holders are calling themselves (and hodlers, while we are at it). Simply put, "long-term traders" is a handy euphemism

Lol your funny man really.  Yes people can continually lose money trading it's called an addiction, they make money elsewhere and lose it trading.  To say that's not possible actual speaks a lot about your lack of true understanding.  
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
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June 13, 2019, 06:43:23 AM
#52
I'm pretty sure I trust cambridge's definition instead of one of mine i just came up with.  Imagine if we all just made up our own definitions for every word

But this is exactly how it happens

There is no kind of absolute definition "sourced" from somewhere unto us which we should accept without any further question. And ultimately, yes, we have our own understanding of what every word means or describes. Anyway, appeal to authority (which is what you are doing here) speaks a lot about your own lack of true understanding rather than me failing to make a compelling argument. Put differently, you can't change an opinion or point of view where there is none to begin with

you're just pointing out that most day traders lose money. sure a small proportion of them are successful. but the same is true for gamblers

They can't consistently lose money. And there is no endless influx of new traders which could potentially give some credibility to your claim. These two factors can mean only one thing, that short-term traders cannot be losing money en masse

your comparing "short term traders" to "bagholders", not "short term traders" to "long term traders".

That's how bag holders are calling themselves (and hodlers, while we are at it). Simply put, "long-term traders" is a handy euphemism
legendary
Activity: 3752
Merit: 1415
June 13, 2019, 05:38:47 AM
#51
Cambridge dictionary link posted above

You have no idea of your own?

or just make a wild guess about the future price, that will be gambling (but if I'm an expert trader, the latter wouldn't count). Anything else which involves a calculated decision (or an educated guess if you please) won't be
That defines the decision when or where to place the trade, a well calculated trade still carries a risk. The unknown factor is the gamble that you take with placing the trade


I'm not sure if some amount of risk makes it into gambling

Otherwise, everything and life itself would be gambling in general. And while some would undoubtedly sign up on this, it essentially makes the whole idea irrelevant and inconsequential. Really, if everything which involves a certain amount of risk (that is just everything) is gambling, then there is nothing that wouldn't be gambling. I don't think it is a meaningful approach. In other words, gambling is reliance on luck and luck alone, with no other option to win

I'm pretty sure I trust cambridge's definition instead of one of mine i just came up with.  Imagine if we all just made up our own definitions for every word.  Just by this thread alone I'd say that would be a complete mess lol.  

I sourced the cambridge defition
I posted a link from gambling research center at Rutgers
I posted a link from what Warren Buffett (the most prolific investor of our time) thinks about crypto trading and gambling

If these things dont sway you, I dont think I can.  It's a stalemate.  You have made no compelling argument to make me think differently as well.  So cheers keep on day trading and good luck to you.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
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June 13, 2019, 04:54:34 AM
#50
Cambridge dictionary link posted above

You have no idea of your own?

or just make a wild guess about the future price, that will be gambling (but if I'm an expert trader, the latter wouldn't count). Anything else which involves a calculated decision (or an educated guess if you please) won't be
That defines the decision when or where to place the trade, a well calculated trade still carries a risk. The unknown factor is the gamble that you take with placing the trade


I'm not sure if some amount of risk makes it into gambling

Otherwise, everything and life itself would be gambling in general. And while some would undoubtedly sign up on this, it essentially makes the whole idea irrelevant and inconsequential. Really, if everything which involves a certain amount of risk (that is just everything) is gambling, then there is nothing that wouldn't be gambling. I don't think it is a meaningful approach. In other words, gambling is reliance on luck and luck alone, with no other option to win
legendary
Activity: 3752
Merit: 1415
June 13, 2019, 03:56:58 AM
#49
After being on this forum for years a large portion of people have little to no idea why they are buying something outside of the idea that someday they are going to be rich, so yes long term holders too are gambling a lot of times.  You seem to have been here a long time.  Can we not agree that people buy crypto in which they just hope it goes up?  If you ask them why I would reckon some would have no idea what they bought other than the drivel they read in one of the [ann] threads.  Throwing your money at that I would consider a gamble, whatever their motives might be.  I think we can agree on that right?

Now you are starting to see the light

That gamblers in trading are not inherent to just short-term trading. You seem to accept the fact that they are also present among longer-term traders. Now you have to make the next logical step and understand that the majority of people can't be losing all the time as it is against human psychology and people's ego (apart from die-hard masochists and their likes, of course). But short-term trading is where this becomes evident and pretty fast at that. Then you've got to realize that gamblers can't possibly be the majority of people engaged in the short-term trading. They come and go, and if they don't quit, they go to longer terms and there they accumulate

Huh I never said longer term trading isn't gambling.  I dont understand your position

What's wrong with understanding my position?

I think I made it abundantly clear. If all trading is sort of gambling (that remains to be seen, though), then short-term trading (contrary to the public opinion, intuitive thinking and gut feelings) is most likely a form of trading which has the least "gambling" component in it for the reasons stated and explained in the OP. I hope I won't have to reiterate them here all over again

In short no one knows if bitcoin will be higher or lower on Saturday, therefore making it a gamble.  Some people use certain methods to narrow down the gamble but its gambling

I guess you may want to revise your understanding of what gambling really is. If you are making decisions on some logical premises or factual information (read, your decisions are not totally at random), this is not gambling even if no one knows what the price of Bitcoin will be on Saturday, whether it will exist at all by the weekend, or even whether you will be proved wrong most of the time

That seems to be the part you are missing in your reasoning

Just read the last part, so if team A wins 70% of their games when played in the rain, if I bet on them to win the next game it isn't gambling because I'm making a decision on a logical premise Smiley

Cambridge might want to have a word with you:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/amp/english/gamble&ved=2ahUKEwjp1YP-9OPiAhUs1VkKHbfmBigQFjAIegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw1oRML0LuLTjzUIRKVD97MB&cf=1&cshid=1560343998535



 Roll Eyes

 to do something that involves risks that might result in loss of money or failure, hoping to get money or achieve success:

Anyone who gambles on the stock exchange has to be prepared to lose money

[Source] cambridge dictionary link posted above.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
June 12, 2019, 11:56:59 PM
#48
I do recommend you take a gander at the definition of gambling

Maybe, it's about time you came up with one?

You see, you talk so much about it, it feels like you should have posted it long ago. Regardless, when people start to speak about definitions of some intricate and complex notion or concept, it typically means they don't really understand the main idea behind it. Regardless, gambling is playing games of chance, i.e. where your only option to win is luck. If the game you are playing is no longer a game of chance, it is no longer gambling either, as simple as it gets. If you have some superpowers (or just an agency, for that matter) to calculate or otherwise determine the outcome of a dice roll, you are not gambling as you don't depend on chance anymore, end of story
sr. member
Activity: 1484
Merit: 253
June 12, 2019, 11:51:33 PM
#47


  I think short term trading are probably good for those who wants quick profits, many people are afraid of the possible conclusion in the market as it has high volatilization. But I think it is about individaul strategy to deal the consequence between long tand short term trading. And I prefer to used long term and keep holding untill the great bull trend abruptly exceed.
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 10611
June 12, 2019, 10:50:10 PM
#46
you can never compare trading with gambling even if some people are gambling in cryptocurrency market and think of themselves as gamblers. gambling requires a complete unpredictability for it to be a gamble, like roll of a dice, even if you analyze the odds for a million years before rolling it, but the result is still 100% unpredictable. but when it comes to trading, the unpredictability is not 100% so it can not be a gamble by nature. specially when most of the times, rises and falls are NOT random even if they look it.
legendary
Activity: 3752
Merit: 1415
June 12, 2019, 05:37:18 PM
#45
As the saying goes, you can take a horse to water but you can't make him drink. I can show you the direction but I can't make you see the point. I can't accurately tell what the price of Bitcoin will be in 2 weeks (or whatever), but that doesn't mean that I will be gambling on it. If I toss a coin (not necessarily bitcoin, though) and make a trading decision based on the outcome or just make a wild guess about the future price, that will be gambling (but if I'm an expert trader, the latter wouldn't count). Anything else which involves a calculated decision (or an educated guess if you please) won't be

Will answer other interesting posts later

Since some sports betters are experts or make educated guesses on their bets that means they aren't gambling?  Are you disputing the actual definition of gambling now  Shocked

They are not, naturally

Tossing a coin is gambling and rolling a dice are unless you can skew the odds in your favor somehow. Experts in the field are doing exactly that by exploiting their expertise. They are not gambling, i.e. they are not relying on chance alone (which is the actual definition of gambling). Technically, even if you toss a coin or roll a dice using some obscure theory which allegedly allows you to predict the outcomes, you won't be gambling. Indeed, we know in advance that with these games of chance no theory is going to help you out but no one promised you that your theories would be correct (though who knows and it may help after all)

So if I put a blindfold on and pick a team to win that's gambling, but if I use analytics about teams, players etc and skew the odds in my favor(or so I think I am) that's not sports gambling?

I definitely understand your pain

To ease it, I can show you the light and give you an example. Say, you have a supercomputer which can reliably calculate the odds of rolling a specific number in a dice game by taking into account a multitude of real-life parameters that the roll outcome depends on. Will dice then stop being a game of chance while rolling gambling? If your answer is no, then think again. Otherwise, you should agree that a game of chance (dice, heads or tails, whatever) is only such as long as our predictions are random (read, we take them straight out of our asses). On the other hand, if our predictions are not random, for ourselves it is no longer a game of chance even if our predictions more or less match the odds of the game overall

Cool if I know a star player is sick and might not play I will bet on the other team and it wont be gambling.  I wonder what kind of support groups exist for people addicted to calculated odds betting (not gambling addiction since that isn't gambling)

Here is a great write up by: researchers at the Center for Gambling Studies at Rutgers University–New Brunswick

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/cryptocurrency-trading-appeals-problem-gamblers-185438426.html

Warren Buffett (but hey what does he know about investing anyway right) https://coinidol.com/trading-bitcoin-is-gambling/
legendary
Activity: 3752
Merit: 1415
June 12, 2019, 05:14:06 PM
#44
As the saying goes, you can take a horse to water but you can't make him drink. I can show you the direction but I can't make you see the point. I can't accurately tell what the price of Bitcoin will be in 2 weeks (or whatever), but that doesn't mean that I will be gambling on it. If I toss a coin (not necessarily bitcoin, though) and make a trading decision based on the outcome or just make a wild guess about the future price, that will be gambling (but if I'm an expert trader, the latter wouldn't count). Anything else which involves a calculated decision (or an educated guess if you please) won't be

Will answer other interesting posts later

Since some sports betters are experts or make educated guesses on their bets that means they aren't gambling?  Are you disputing the actual definition of gambling now  Shocked

They are not, naturally

Tossing a coin is gambling and rolling a dice are unless you can skew the odds in your favor somehow. Experts in the field are doing exactly that by exploiting their expertise. They are not gambling, i.e. they are not relying on chance alone (which is the actual definition of gambling). Technically, even if you toss a coin or roll a dice using some obscure theory which allegedly allows you to predict the outcomes, you won't be gambling. Indeed, we know in advance that with these games of chance no theory is going to help you out but no one promised you that your theories would be correct (though who knows and it may help after all)

So if I put a blindfold on and pick a team to win that's gambling, but if I use analytics about teams, players etc and skew the odds in my favor(or so I think I am) that's not sports gambling?

I definitely understand your pain

To ease it, I can show you the light and give you an example. Say, you have a supercomputer which can reliably calculate the odds of rolling a specific number in a dice game by taking into account a multitude of real-life parameters that the roll outcome depends on. Will dice then stop being a game of chance while rolling gambling? If your answer is no, then think again. Otherwise, you should agree that a game of chance (dice, heads or tails, whatever) is only such as long as our predictions are random (read, we take them straight out of our asses). On the other hand, if our predictions are not random, for ourselves it is no longer a game of chance even if our predictions more or less match the odds of the game overall

So all in all you think short term traders that have been trading for x number of time (they survived?) know what they are doing and are exposed to little to no risk because it's all calculated. 

I do recommend you take a gander at the definition of gambling.  The phrase hope a certain outcome occurs strikes me as similar to someone who buys crypto and holds it short term in Hopes that it goes up.  But heyho maybe the people who defined gambling are wrong who knows
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
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June 12, 2019, 04:42:18 PM
#43
As the saying goes, you can take a horse to water but you can't make him drink. I can show you the direction but I can't make you see the point. I can't accurately tell what the price of Bitcoin will be in 2 weeks (or whatever), but that doesn't mean that I will be gambling on it. If I toss a coin (not necessarily bitcoin, though) and make a trading decision based on the outcome or just make a wild guess about the future price, that will be gambling (but if I'm an expert trader, the latter wouldn't count). Anything else which involves a calculated decision (or an educated guess if you please) won't be

Will answer other interesting posts later

Since some sports betters are experts or make educated guesses on their bets that means they aren't gambling?  Are you disputing the actual definition of gambling now  Shocked

They are not, naturally

Tossing a coin is gambling and rolling a dice are unless you can skew the odds in your favor somehow. Experts in the field are doing exactly that by exploiting their expertise. They are not gambling, i.e. they are not relying on chance alone (which is the actual definition of gambling). Technically, even if you toss a coin or roll a dice using some obscure theory which allegedly allows you to predict the outcomes, you won't be gambling. Indeed, we know in advance that with these games of chance no theory is going to help you out but no one promised you that your theories would be correct (though who knows and it may help after all)

So if I put a blindfold on and pick a team to win that's gambling, but if I use analytics about teams, players etc and skew the odds in my favor(or so I think I am) that's not sports gambling?

I definitely understand your pain

To ease it, I can show you the light and give you an example. Say, you have a supercomputer which can reliably calculate the odds of rolling a specific number in a dice game by taking into account a multitude of real-life parameters that the roll outcome depends on. Will dice then stop being a game of chance while rolling gambling? If your answer is no, then think again. Otherwise, you should agree that a game of chance (dice, heads or tails, whatever) is only such as long as our predictions are random (read, we take them straight out of our asses). On the other hand, if our predictions are not random, for ourselves it is no longer a game of chance even if our predictions more or less match the odds of the game overall
legendary
Activity: 3752
Merit: 1415
June 12, 2019, 04:27:31 PM
#42
As the saying goes, you can take a horse to water but you can't make him drink. I can show you the direction but I can't make you see the point. I can't accurately tell what the price of Bitcoin will be in 2 weeks (or whatever), but that doesn't mean that I will be gambling on it. If I toss a coin (not necessarily bitcoin, though) and make a trading decision based on the outcome or just make a wild guess about the future price, that will be gambling (but if I'm an expert trader, the latter wouldn't count). Anything else which involves a calculated decision (or an educated guess if you please) won't be

Will answer other interesting posts later

Since some sports betters are experts or make educated guesses on their bets that means they aren't gambling?  Are you disputing the actual definition of gambling now  Shocked

They are not, naturally

Tossing a coin is gambling and rolling a dice are unless you can skew the odds in your favor somehow. Experts in the field are doing exactly that by exploiting their expertise. They are not gambling, i.e. they are not relying on chance alone (which is the actual definition of gambling). Technically, even if you toss a coin or roll a dice using some obscure theory which allegedly allows you to predict the outcomes, you won't be gambling. Indeed, we know in advance that with these games of chance no theory is going to help you out but no one promised you that your theories would be correct (though who knows and it may help after all)

So if I put a blindfold on and pick a team to win that's gambling, but if I use analytics about teams, players etc and skew the odds in my favor(or so I think I am) that's not sports gambling? 
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
June 12, 2019, 03:26:28 PM
#41
As the saying goes, you can take a horse to water but you can't make him drink. I can show you the direction but I can't make you see the point. I can't accurately tell what the price of Bitcoin will be in 2 weeks (or whatever), but that doesn't mean that I will be gambling on it. If I toss a coin (not necessarily bitcoin, though) and make a trading decision based on the outcome or just make a wild guess about the future price, that will be gambling (but if I'm an expert trader, the latter wouldn't count). Anything else which involves a calculated decision (or an educated guess if you please) won't be

Will answer other interesting posts later

Since some sports betters are experts or make educated guesses on their bets that means they aren't gambling?  Are you disputing the actual definition of gambling now  Shocked

They are not, naturally

Tossing a coin is gambling and rolling a dice are unless you can skew the odds in your favor somehow. Experts in the field are doing exactly that by exploiting their expertise. They are not gambling, i.e. they are not relying on chance alone (which is the actual definition of gambling). Technically, even if you toss a coin or roll a dice using some obscure theory which allegedly allows you to predict the outcomes, you won't be gambling. Indeed, we know in advance that with these games of chance no theory is going to help you out but no one promised you that your theories would be correct (though who knows and it may help after all)
hero member
Activity: 1568
Merit: 544
June 12, 2019, 02:02:45 PM
#40
However you are not trading against the exchange you are trading against other traders.
Just a side note, We are never sure if we are not against the house while trading  https://themerkle.com/what-is-the-willy-bitcoin-trading-bot/

or just make a wild guess about the future price, that will be gambling (but if I'm an expert trader, the latter wouldn't count). Anything else which involves a calculated decision (or an educated guess if you please) won't be
That defines the decision when or where to place the trade, a well calculated trade still carries a risk. The unknown factor is the gamble that you take with placing the trade.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1483
June 12, 2019, 12:02:55 PM
#39
The popular opinion has it that short-term traders are essentially gamblers. But that's simply not possible due to the very nature of short-term trading as losses in this trading setup are set to accumulate quickly, so whoever tries it and fails has to wind up and do that fast unless he loses all and is stopped by his empty stomach. In this way, short-term trading brutally weeds out those who can't earn consistently in the long run. It is a type of natural selection where short-term traders are selected to be successful if they are to remain in the game, and this selection works fast at that

you're just pointing out that most day traders lose money. sure a small proportion of them are successful. but the same is true for gamblers.

On the other hand, long-term traders have the option of turning into long-term holders and ultimately into bag holders if they are unable to earn consistently long term. Ironically, it is also kind of natural selection, though in this case in works in reverse, i.e. it is a negative selection which essentially favors losers, even though it takes years to reveal itself. Considering these two types of selection and their effects on different strata of traders, we have to conclude that the percentage of successful short-term traders should be way higher than among other types of traders

your conclusion doesn't follow from your premise. you're only talking about bagholders---people who ignore all the rules of trading and don't cut their losses. your comparing "short term traders" to "bagholders", not "short term traders" to "long term traders".
legendary
Activity: 3752
Merit: 1415
June 12, 2019, 11:00:58 AM
#38
Quote
I guess you may want to revise your understanding of what gambling really is. If you are making decisions on some logical premises or factual information (read, your decisions are not totally at random), this is not gambling even if no one knows what the price of Bitcoin will be on Saturday, whether it will exist at all by the weekend, or even whether you will be proved wrong most of the time

That seems to be the part you are missing in your reasoning

So you can accurately tell if the price of bitcoin will be higher or lower in 2 weeks versus if bitcoin will be higher or lower over the long term

As the saying goes, you can take a horse to water but you can't make him drink. I can show you the direction but I can't make you see the point. I can't accurately tell what the price of Bitcoin will be in 2 weeks (or whatever), but that doesn't mean that I will be gambling on it. If I toss a coin (not necessarily bitcoin, though) and make a trading decision based on the outcome or just make a wild guess about the future price, that will be gambling (but if I'm an expert trader, the latter wouldn't count). Anything else which involves a calculated decision (or an educated guess if you please) won't be

Will answer other interesting posts later

Since some sports betters are experts or make educated guesses on their bets that means they aren't gambling?  Are you disputing the actual definition of gambling now  Shocked
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