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Topic: One Reason not to be "All Inn" on any Single Investment for Long - page 6. (Read 3826 times)

hero member
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I have long written that diversification is a very smart idea.  No one can predict the future, etc.  But discussed below is another reason not be 100% in ANY investment, at least for long.  I ran into this argument at a gold blog.

Imagine that you are 100% invested, "All Inn", in gold.  Even if the price of gold were to go way up, there is still a big risk that many don't see.  Namely what happens if there is a big price drop JUST when the owner might NEED to sell (eg, an unexpected emergency).  If our imaginary friend bought in at $1275 gold (approx. price today), and then price drops to $900 (Martin Armstrong predicts a sharp price drop like this, prior to a big price rise, a "slingshot" price rise after its initial drop).

And then, just at a bad time for the gold owner, he might need money (US dollars) to cover an unexpected $200,000 medical bill.  And he if forced to sell his gold at a 25% loss to cover his bills...  Ouch!  It would hurt even more should gold then go to $2500 per ounce.

So, it is unwise to be All Inn on gold, even if we were to be very sure that $2500 gold is coming.

The above scenario would hold for Bitcoin as well, or anything else to be held long-term.

Some of us gold owners have a saying: "Protect the precious."  That means keep some powder dry (CA$H on hand) for the unexpected.
Yep.  And that explains why volatility isn't completely acceptable - if you put a lot of money in something, you're going to have to sell it eventually, and the price might be down dramatically then even if you think it'll go up in the next 5 years.

Still, in my country the health services are in the public sector, and we have safety nets in some cases.  If you're wealthy though and you pay for things often it's always a huge problem.  People ignore that the end goal of this isn't money, it's enjoyment - you're not just saving until you're 100 years old and your back hurts too much to go paragliding.
hero member
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...

I have long written that diversification is a very smart idea.  No one can predict the future, etc.  But discussed below is another reason not be 100% in ANY investment, at least for long.  I ran into this argument at a gold blog.

Imagine that you are 100% invested, "All Inn", in gold.  Even if the price of gold were to go way up, there is still a big risk that many don't see.  Namely what happens if there is a big price drop JUST when the owner might NEED to sell (eg, an unexpected emergency).  If our imaginary friend bought in at $1275 gold (approx. price today), and then price drops to $900 (Martin Armstrong predicts a sharp price drop like this, prior to a big price rise, a "slingshot" price rise after its initial drop).

And then, just at a bad time for the gold owner, he might need money (US dollars) to cover an unexpected $200,000 medical bill.  And he if forced to sell his gold at a 25% loss to cover his bills...  Ouch!  It would hurt even more should gold then go to $2500 per ounce.

So, it is unwise to be All Inn on gold, even if we were to be very sure that $2500 gold is coming.

The above scenario would hold for Bitcoin as well, or anything else to be held long-term.

Some of us gold owners have a saying: "Protect the precious."  That means keep some powder dry (CA$H on hand) for the unexpected.

Personally I think the wisest thing that a prepper can do is to diversify his stock of everything, like you have suggested right here.

 You are absolutely spot on about even if gold is a good investment and is guaranteed to fight inflation, it is not a good idea to get all your wealth into gold. The reason for that is because if you are going for the long term and in the short term if you have a very big emergency that forced you to liquidate your gold, then you're probably going to liquidate it at a loss because of the spreads on physical gold.

I would say hold around 30% bitcoin, 30% precious metals, and the 40% should be your own decision what you want to invest in.

I wouldn't own any land because that's worthless in times of crisis. And it's in a bubble right now, i can feel 2008 repeating itself.
sr. member
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Maybe you are referring for the word "All In" rather than the word "All Inn" you repeated again and again. "Inn" is like a lodge or a restaurant.
By the way, I agreed on you that investing "all in" is something that noone should do. But on the way that you've explained it isn't really makes it so bad since he got money to pay his hospital bills even though he loss some money.
Yes, I agree that we shouldn't invest "all in" since in all investment there would always be a risk so rather than investing all in just one then why not spread it into other investments. But just as I've said don't put "All" so you must atleast leave 50% of all the money you have in you.
There is a saying that "We shouldn't put all our eggs in just one basket" (I don't know if that's the exact words in those saying). This must be kept in mind to all gamblers and investors.
Thank you.   This forum has become like a New York City homeless shelter, i.e., a melting pot of illiterate retards.

But OP is right, and diversification should be so obvious at this point that such a long-winded explanation should be unnecessary.   I think crypto ought to be an extremely small part of anyone's portfolio because of the huge risk.
sr. member
Activity: 364
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Investing all in on every investment program is a big no.Even if its a long term or short term investment all investment may lose and turn out to scam.Dont go all in on every long term or short term investment because you may up losing all your money if the investment failed or turn to scam
hero member
Activity: 1666
Merit: 753
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I have long written that diversification is a very smart idea.  No one can predict the future, etc.  But discussed below is another reason not be 100% in ANY investment, at least for long.  I ran into this argument at a gold blog.

Imagine that you are 100% invested, "All Inn", in gold.  Even if the price of gold were to go way up, there is still a big risk that many don't see.  Namely what happens if there is a big price drop JUST when the owner might NEED to sell (eg, an unexpected emergency).  If our imaginary friend bought in at $1275 gold (approx. price today), and then price drops to $900 (Martin Armstrong predicts a sharp price drop like this, prior to a big price rise, a "slingshot" price rise after its initial drop).

And then, just at a bad time for the gold owner, he might need money (US dollars) to cover an unexpected $200,000 medical bill.  And he if forced to sell his gold at a 25% loss to cover his bills...  Ouch!  It would hurt even more should gold then go to $2500 per ounce.

So, it is unwise to be All Inn on gold, even if we were to be very sure that $2500 gold is coming.

The above scenario would hold for Bitcoin as well, or anything else to be held long-term.

Some of us gold owners have a saying: "Protect the precious."  That means keep some powder dry (CA$H on hand) for the unexpected.
I 100% agree with you.

The way to go is to diversify your selected investments.

Hedge your bets so that even if one of the investments you made went down or went scam, you'll still have money more that you can rely on easily. You can sleep well in your dreams Cheesy

The issue with most people is that they look at youtube, see "Gold is going up to $1 million an ounce" and then either dismiss it completely or make an investment in it with everything they've got.

That's not wise.
hero member
Activity: 882
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I think this problem "comes with the territory" as the saying goes. You either view it as losses that is included in the job or just saying it's plain bad luck. But, I would say that this could have been greatly prevented if there would have been an emergency fund set aside or an insurance policy. What if the opposite happens though? If prices raised up by 2x or even ten folds? Mr. imaginary friend will be pleased of his choice for sure.
legendary
Activity: 2562
Merit: 1441
There have been multiple studies done over the years which concluded the vast majority of stock market & commodities traders fail to produce greater than 5% profits.

I think that's where most pro diversification rhetoric comes from.

The unspoken understanding that most who try to be successful traders/investors are not which makes planning for worst case scenarios a standard procedure.

Diversification could also be standard procedure for crypto given the lack of historical precedents to draw upon. Crypto is essentially uncharted territory.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1865
Maybe you are referring for the word "All In" rather than the word "All Inn" you repeated again and again. "Inn" is like a lodge or a restaurant.
By the way, I agreed on you that investing "all in" is something that noone should do. But on the way that you've explained it isn't really makes it so bad since he got money to pay his hospital bills even though he loss some money.
Yes, I agree that we shouldn't invest "all in" since in all investment there would always be a risk so rather than investing all in just one then why not spread it into other investments. But just as I've said don't put "All" so you must atleast leave 50% of all the money you have in you.
There is a saying that "We shouldn't put all our eggs in just one basket" (I don't know if that's the exact words in those saying). This must be kept in mind to all gamblers and investors.


It's a saying, mi amigo!  A metaphor...  Guess you're not a "gold guy", smile...   Wink

(Think that all your investment is staying at the inn)

But, you understand my main point well.

hero member
Activity: 1498
Merit: 547
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Maybe you are referring for the word "All In" rather than the word "All Inn" you repeated again and again. "Inn" is like a lodge or a restaurant.
By the way, I agreed on you that investing "all in" is something that noone should do. But on the way that you've explained it isn't really makes it so bad since he got money to pay his hospital bills even though he loss some money.
Yes, I agree that we shouldn't invest "all in" since in all investment there would always be a risk so rather than investing all in just one then why not spread it into other investments. But just as I've said don't put "All" so you must atleast leave 50% of all the money you have in you.
There is a saying that "We shouldn't put all our eggs in just one basket" (I don't know if that's the exact words in those saying). This must be kept in mind to all gamblers and investors.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1865
...

I have long written that diversification is a very smart idea.  No one can predict the future, etc.  But discussed below is another reason not be 100% in ANY investment, at least for long.  I ran into this argument at a gold blog.

Imagine that you are 100% invested, "All Inn", in gold.  Even if the price of gold were to go way up, there is still a big risk that many don't see.  Namely what happens if there is a big price drop JUST when the owner might NEED to sell (eg, an unexpected emergency).  If our imaginary friend bought in at $1275 gold (approx. price today), and then price drops to $900 (Martin Armstrong predicts a sharp price drop like this, prior to a big price rise, a "slingshot" price rise after its initial drop).

And then, just at a bad time for the gold owner, he might need money (US dollars) to cover an unexpected $200,000 medical bill.  And he if forced to sell his gold at a 25% loss to cover his bills...  Ouch!  It would hurt even more should gold then go to $2500 per ounce.

So, it is unwise to be All Inn on gold, even if we were to be very sure that $2500 gold is coming.

The above scenario would hold for Bitcoin as well, or anything else to be held long-term.

Some of us gold owners have a saying: "Protect the precious."  That means keep some powder dry (CA$H on hand) for the unexpected.
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