Topic: open your eyes (Read 3551 times)

neither are these 

These kind of posts make me only say. Watch out - next bubble is coming. And Bitcoin will go like 15x then, because Bitcoin is far far from what it should become. We just started adopting it. My fiat is waiting for the bottom, and I refuse to believe it will be under 270$ because it's not natural.

Smart move.
The desperate fools and the manipulators who want to dump at a better price, want you to believe that the bottom won't last long, so everyone would panic buy to "get cheaper coins". But actually, when the real bottom is met, then everyone will have a month or more to buy at the bottom.

Indeed, I also don't care anymore where the bottom is. Shorting bitcoin the past couple of weeks has given me good profits to be content enough not to easily fall for bull traps. I'll just let others decide where the bottom is.

+1
TA is only good if other traders use it, too. So it gets somehow a self-fulfilling prophecy. Most of the people don't care. They sell and buy based on bad or good news. The price has deacreased to the current level because of bad news out of China(and other news). That the price just touched 400$ again (support level) is because buyer placed a big support wall at 400$. Why? They can't predict the future. Maybe they used TA (self-fulfilling prophecy).

I know that there are many people waiting with millions in their hands to invest in Bitcoin. The question is only how long they will wait. Because of the intrinsic value of the Bitcoin network I see a longterm benefit for users so I don't worry. But sure, I am not happy about the recent price drops. Just because I could have made a lot of money if I would have sold and bought back now.

"I cannot believe I am still hearing people vigorously advocating taking a long position right now and that this is the bottom because their perception of 'previous cycles'."

You're using charts dude. Charts only are useful to understand past data It's been proven thoudsands of times that charts can't been seriously taken into account to predict the future of markets. 

TERA/the sheep who believes this pessimistic stupid bs:


If I Place a buy order and make the price go up for 1 second. Just 1 second. And make a 1-second chart showing that the price is going up. Are you as easily convinced, as With this post, that the price is going up?


We've been here before. Charts been looking like this... what, 5 times? Just go back to the last/middle pages of this Specualation Forum and read the People swearing it will never go over 30. Never go over 100. NEVER 200. And definately 200 is the Maximum. Well it will never ever go over 1000.

That's the history of Bitcoin. Goes along With any FULL graph showing bitcoin in its FULL timespan.



Logic patterns are not 100% correct? Ofcourse not. I personally do however believe Logic to be a more accurate way of predicting something than just an emotional reaction i get from watching a pessimisticly manipulated graph(Manipulated because IT DOESN'T SHOW THE FULL TIMESPAN OF BTC).

I have to say that TERA is quite brave for making these posts.
To most of the people here, it's totally normal if someone creates a topic that talks about bitcoin hitting 10 000$ soon. But if someone creates a topic that the bitcoin price will fall, then there will be a whine storm about why is he doing it, and how bitter and WRONG he is.

Anyway, I understand the frustration because I know the feeling. I already saw this in December, that the markets in China are running on borrowed time and just waiting till bureaucracy catches up to them. I sold in December, after the first statement from PBoC, that they don't want to see any business activity in China involving bitcoin. It got clear then, that it's just a matter of time when this stance is put on paper and executed. It was common sense.
I was called all kinds of things in January, when I was asking for people not to fuel these dumb pumps, that only had the support of denial, desperation and foolish hopes. It's funny to see how everything is unfolding, but there are still people who desperately try to call for new "trend reversals" and curse at people who won't go along with this stupidity.
Bitcoin is a nice piece of technology, but the majority of people surrounding it are fools, who are both ignorant and arrogant at the same time. I think that the overly steep deflation rate is to blame here, that attracts these get-rich-quick people, who truly think that if you believe in something really-really hard, then it will come true. When they aren't attending self-help motivational classes, called "5 easy steps on how to be a millionaire!", then they're attending this forum and trying to convince people that the price will rise to unprecedented heights.

Haha, good one. I didn't see him refuting himself in the same post. Hm, for the record: I prefer the 2 weeks EMA and this one is still above.

Pssst. When I drive with my car I look in the driving mirror to predict the next curve.

I take my decisions based on my view about what the technology can offer in the future and what kind of products can be developed on top of it...

1 - I don't listen to FUD,
2 - Sometimes I listen to technical analysis (descriptive statistics, inductive statistics ) but knowing its limitations.
3 - I prefer see bitcoin as a new technology breakthrough.  

 

You've had a good year or two and now you think you're a master. Hubris.

I'm not totally sure what to make of your post tera. On the one hand I understand your frustration with the irrational bullishness of this forum (I sometimes think it should be renamed to "Cheerleading" instead of "Speculation"), but on the other hand your post sounds a bit passive aggressive. I like your analysis, so I just hope you don't turn into another rambling doom&gloom type poster.


About your technical argument itself:

I made a post in the wall thread yesterday, where I went on about how relevant (or not) a weekly, or in my example: 3 day, EMA crossover is. Link here. To recap:

I would be careful drawing too much conclusions from that crossover alone. You correctly pointed out yourself that, after just a few 9 month rally cycles, people here feel "entitled" to another big rally now, which is silly of course. But that works the other way around as well: Just because we /once/ had a long decline after a similar crossover in 2011 doesn't mean we inevitably will see another one now.

Also, I don't know the exact parameters you used for the EMAs, but did you check how profitable a "pure" strategy based on those weekly EMAs would have been in 2011? Because the one I looked at (3d EMA40+20) was basically profit neutral: you would have sold about half way into the 2011 bear market, and bought back pretty deep into the recovery. So I would be careful about advising to "sell now, buy back when they CO again" -- those super-slow momentum indicators are incredibly lagging, so if someone in here is really convinced of the /long-term/ success of Bitcoin, he might rationally resist selling too deep into a downtrend, because he might not be quick enough to see the reversal and buy back in.

Okay.... But all of that said, I agree with the gist of your argument: a large number of technical indicators (including momentum ones like EMAs) tell us that we're still deep into the downtrend, and there's little signs of reversal. So all those bulls cheering at any upwards move of 5$, calling it a reversal, sure can stuff it.

At this point I don't care about catching the bottom. I cared whether I had bought the bottom when I bought 700, and then 600, and then 500. But at 400 and below it doesn't matter to me.  At this point I only care that my eventual rebuy price (if i rebuy) is lower than the price now, and that is most likely to be true. It's too risky to try to bottom fish or to hold fiat on exchanges for more months. Getting a price significantly above bottom is fine if it eliminates risk factors and allows the funds to be used for something else productive in the meantime. There may be an entire 6 month rally to recover from 200 to 350 before my 1W signal is given. But by that time, I may have increased my funds by a factor of 10 in forex/stock trading and business ventures.

Isnt that ironic

How does the chart posted in OP guarantee that we are going lower again?

Bull circle jerk only?

when everyone says sell, thats when I buy 

Agree, now can you please follow your own advice?

Looks to me that TA works best in regulated markets, with fair clear rules.
I feel Bitcoin have a lot of underground movements, blockchain analysis might be best suited. For what i know it could be convenient for big capitals to keep exchanges prices low and buy straight from miners. China have the infrastructure/skill to build their own high performance miners as well, to me this only means that exchanges are only a (small) attempt to trade something new in a old way.
Also, from past experiences, unless i read some clear, straight and official statement i tend to consider everything as price manipulation attemps (bullish therefore).
That said i highly respect the work of skilled analysts.